Is Cleveland-Cliffs profitable in 2026?

No. Cleveland-Cliffs posted a GAAP net loss of $229-237 million on $4.922 billion revenue in Q1 2026, following a full-year 2025 net loss of about $1.43 billion on $18.6 billion revenue, versus Steel Dynamics' $403 million Q1 2026 profit on similar revenue.

Is Cleveland-Cliffs losing to Steel Dynamics?

Yes, on cost. In Q1 2026 Steel Dynamics earned $403 million net income on $5.2 billion revenue while Cleveland-Cliffs lost $229 million on $4.9 billion revenue, reflecting the cost gap between EAF mini-mills and Cliffs' integrated blast-furnace model as of March 31, 2026.

Could AI replace Cleveland-Cliffs jobs?

Cleveland-Cliffs announced a multi-year AI partnership with Palantir on April 28, 2026, targeting production planning, order entry, and back-office workflows. Physical steelmaking itself is not AI-replaceable, but planning and administrative roles are the most exposed to automation.

Is Cleveland-Cliffs doing layoffs?

Yes. Cleveland-Cliffs filed a WARN notice cutting 559 jobs in Harrisburg, PA effective June 30, 2025, then idled three more plants affecting about 950 workers in October 2025, following an earlier 1,200-job cut in Michigan and Minnesota in April 2025.

Is the POSCO deal with Cleveland-Cliffs finalized?

Not as of mid-2026. Cleveland-Cliffs signed a non-binding MoU with POSCO on September 17, 2025, targeting a definitive agreement by Q4 2025/Q1 2026 that slipped to 'first half of 2026'; CEO Goncalves said June 16, 2026 it's 'a matter of when, not if.'

Is Cleveland-Cliffs a safe company to work for right now?

It carries mixed signals: Cleveland-Cliffs won a $400 million Defense Logistics Agency contract on July 6, 2026 and was named 2025 GM Supplier of the Year, yet it has idled multiple plants and cut over 2,700 jobs since April 2025 amid ongoing net losses.

Manufacturing companies · acquisition pending · United States

Cleveland-Cliffs

clevelandcliffs.com ↗

Domestic integrated steelmaker supplying autos, defense, and infrastructure with steel.

Losing its protection

Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026

The structural protection is eroding.

On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from July 23, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings release

The call

Cleveland-Cliffs survives on tariffs and contracts, not cost efficiency, leaving its balance sheet exposed to trade policy and the unresolved POSCO deal.

Cleveland-Cliffs makes steel and sells a lot of it to car makers and the military, which gives it some protection through long-term deals and tariffs that keep foreign steel out. The problem is that competitors like Steel Dynamics and Nucor use newer, cheaper electric furnaces to make the same steel for much less money, so Cliffs loses cash even when sales are strong, and it is cutting jobs and closing plants to survive. The company is trying to do a big deal with Korean steelmaker POSCO that has been stuck since 2025; if that deal falls through or changes shape, it could make Cliffs' money problems much worse, so watch that partnership and their July earnings to see if the cost gap with cheaper rivals is actually shrinking.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI doesn't smelt steel; Cliffs uses Palantir internally to plan production and orders, not a threat but a cost tool. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Steel Dynamics and Nucor, EAF mini-mill producers. Lower-cost electric-arc rivals post real profits (SDI made $403M in Q1 2026) while Cliffs lost $229M on similar revenue. Could a giant copy it? Probably.

What protects it. Section 232 tariffs, long-term OEM contracts with GM, and a $400M defense steel deal keep demand locked in regardless of cost gap.

What would change this call

Whether Cliffs and POSCO sign a definitive agreement in H1 2026 as targeted. Shows whether the capital partnership materializes or the MoU collapses.
Cliffs Q2 2026 earnings on July 23, 2026 versus Steel Dynamics/Nucor results. Shows whether the cost gap to EAF rivals is narrowing or widening.
Whether Dearborn Works blast furnace restart proceeds or further plant idlings occur. Shows direction of capacity and cost trajectory amid ongoing headcount cuts.

Key numbers

FY2025 net loss $1.43B on $18.6B revenue (2025-12-31)
Q1 2026 loss $229M vs Steel Dynamics' $403M profit (2026-03-31)
$400M DLA defense steel contract, 5 years (2026-07-06)

Named risks

Structural cost disadvantage versus EAF rivals erasing tariff-driven pricing gains. Severity: high
POSCO strategic agreement repeatedly delayed with no binding capital commitment. Severity: high
Dependence on Section 232 tariff policy that could weaken or roll back. Severity: high
Ongoing plant idlings and layoffs signaling persistent weak demand. Severity: medium
Upcoming United Steelworkers contract renegotiation could raise costs. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Steel Dynamics	losing to	SDI earned $403M net income vs CLF $229M loss on similar revenue, Q1 2026
Nucor	losing to	Lower-cost EAF model gaining automotive market share as of 2026
ArcelorMittal	contesting	Cliffs ended value-destructive slab contract Feb 2026, expects $500M+ EBITDA gain
POSCO	contesting	MoU since Sept 17 2025 remains non-binding as of June 16 2026

Questions people ask

Is Cleveland-Cliffs profitable in 2026?: No. Cleveland-Cliffs posted a GAAP net loss of $229-237 million on $4.922 billion revenue in Q1 2026, following a full-year 2025 net loss of about $1.43 billion on $18.6 billion revenue, versus Steel Dynamics' $403 million Q1 2026 profit on similar revenue.
Is Cleveland-Cliffs losing to Steel Dynamics?: Yes, on cost. In Q1 2026 Steel Dynamics earned $403 million net income on $5.2 billion revenue while Cleveland-Cliffs lost $229 million on $4.9 billion revenue, reflecting the cost gap between EAF mini-mills and Cliffs' integrated blast-furnace model as of March 31, 2026.
Could AI replace Cleveland-Cliffs jobs?: Cleveland-Cliffs announced a multi-year AI partnership with Palantir on April 28, 2026, targeting production planning, order entry, and back-office workflows. Physical steelmaking itself is not AI-replaceable, but planning and administrative roles are the most exposed to automation.
Is Cleveland-Cliffs doing layoffs?: Yes. Cleveland-Cliffs filed a WARN notice cutting 559 jobs in Harrisburg, PA effective June 30, 2025, then idled three more plants affecting about 950 workers in October 2025, following an earlier 1,200-job cut in Michigan and Minnesota in April 2025.
Is the POSCO deal with Cleveland-Cliffs finalized?: Not as of mid-2026. Cleveland-Cliffs signed a non-binding MoU with POSCO on September 17, 2025, targeting a definitive agreement by Q4 2025/Q1 2026 that slipped to 'first half of 2026'; CEO Goncalves said June 16, 2026 it's 'a matter of when, not if.'
Is Cleveland-Cliffs a safe company to work for right now?: It carries mixed signals: Cleveland-Cliffs won a $400 million Defense Logistics Agency contract on July 6, 2026 and was named 2025 GM Supplier of the Year, yet it has idled multiple plants and cut over 2,700 jobs since April 2025 amid ongoing net losses.

Timeline

2026-07-06Won up to $400M, 5-year DLA contract for grain-oriented electrical steel
2026-06-30Evaluating restart of mothballed Dearborn Works blast furnace
2026-06-16CEO says POSCO deal is 'a matter of when, not if'
2026-04-28Announced multi-year AI partnership with Palantir Technologies
2026-04-21CEO says order book is full; plans USW contract renegotiation
2026-04-20Reported Q1 2026 revenue $4.922B, net loss $229-237M
2026-02-08Ended value-destructive ArcelorMittal slab-supply contract
2025-10-29Idled three plants, affecting about 950 workers
2025-09-17Signed non-binding MoU with POSCO for strategic partnership
2025-06-30Laid off 559 workers in Harrisburg, PA

Revision history

20 July 2026

First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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