WillItSurvive

Swiss direct air capture company that pulls CO2 from air and stores it underground.

Losing its protection
Assessed 25 July 2026 · Evidence as of 25 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 25 July 2026 · Checkable from 2H 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Mammoth's ramp toward its full 36,000 t/yr nameplate capacity
The call

Climeworks has the plants, the storage deal, and the customer names, but its delivered tonnage still trails far behind both its own nameplate and Occidental's much larger Stratos project.

Climeworks builds machines that pull carbon dioxide directly out of the air and stores it underground or sells it to customers. The company has real plants operating and over $1 billion in funding, so it is not going away soon. However, the business is very hard: it costs about $1,000 to remove one ton of carbon today, but Climeworks needs to get that down to $100-250 per ton to make money. At the same time, Occidental Petroleum, a giant oil company, bought a competitor called Carbon Engineering and is building a much larger plant in Texas that could capture 500,000 tons per year, compared to Climeworks' current output of just thousands of tons. Climeworks has already laid off workers and lost funding for a major U.S. project, so the real test is whether Occidental's Texas plant can actually deliver carbon at lower cost and higher volume than Climeworks can in 2026; if it does, investors may lose confidence in Climeworks' path forward.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI is not a rival here, but hyperscalers' soaring power demand competes for the same clean electricity Climeworks needs to run its plants. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Occidental Petroleum (1PointFive's Stratos plant, Texas). Stratos targets 500,000 tons a year, about 14 times Climeworks' combined Orca and Mammoth nameplate, and already has EPA storage permits. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. Multi-year offtake deals with Microsoft and Schneider Electric plus the Carbfix storage partnership in Iceland give it locked-in buyers and a place to put the CO2.
What would change this call
1PointFive publishes Stratos first-year delivered tonnage and cost per ton figures. Shows whether Occidental has overtaken Climeworks on real-world DAC output and cost.
Climeworks announces another layoff round beyond the May 2025 22% cut. Would indicate continued financial strain and shrinking operational capacity.
Project Cypress in Louisiana is refunded or has its DOE funding formally cancelled. Determines whether Climeworks' flagship US project survives US policy shifts.
Key numbers
  • Raised $162m in July 2025, cumulative funding tops $1 billion (2025-07-02)
  • 380,000 tons of CO2 removal contracted cumulatively (2025-05-21)
  • Cut 22% of staff in one round, headcount fell 726 to 521 (2025-05-21)
Named risks
  • Unit economics unproven, cost ~$1,000/ton vs revised $250-350/ton target. Severity: high
  • Delivered CO2 volumes far below nameplate capacity, per May 2025 investigation. Severity: high
  • Project Cypress DOE-backed US expansion stuck in political funding limbo. Severity: high
  • Two rounds of layoffs in 12 months signal cash and demand strain. Severity: medium
  • Reputational scrutiny from investigative reporting could deter future buyers or investors. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Occidental Petroleum (1PointFive, Stratos)gaining onStratos ~500,000 t/yr nameplate, EPA Class VI permits April 2025, vs Climeworks' much smaller Iceland output
Heirloom Carbon TechnologiescontestingUS limestone-based DAC rival backed by Microsoft investment, 2024
Deep SkycontestingAchieved North America's first CO2 storage via DAC in September 2025
Questions people ask
Is Climeworks profitable in 2026?
No profitability has been disclosed. Climeworks' own cost is roughly $1,000 per ton captured as of May 2025, far above its revised 2030 target of $250 to $350 per ton, while delivered tonnage remains a fraction of contracted volumes, per company and press statements.
Is Climeworks doing layoffs?
Yes. Climeworks cut about 22% of staff (up to 106 roles) in May 2025, then cut roughly 10% more in May 2026, shrinking headcount from 726 in 2024 to about 521 by December 2025, a 33% decline, per Bloomberg and Revelio Labs.
Who is Climeworks' biggest competitor?
Occidental Petroleum, via its 1PointFive subsidiary and the Stratos plant in Texas, is Climeworks' biggest rival. Stratos has roughly 500,000 tons per year nameplate capacity and EPA Class VI storage permits since April 2025, about 14 times Climeworks' Iceland capacity.
Could AI replace Climeworks?
Unlikely. Climeworks' core business is physical chemical engineering, sorbent manufacturing, and geological CO2 storage with Carbfix in Iceland, not information processing. AI mainly touches back office monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV), not the capture-and-store operations themselves.
Who owns Climeworks?
Climeworks is privately held, co-founded and co-led by Christoph Gebald and Jan Wurzbacher since 2009. Investors include Partners Group, GIC and BigPoint Holding; the company reported cumulative funding above $1 billion after a $162m raise on July 2, 2025.
How much CO2 has Climeworks actually captured versus its plant capacity?
An Icelandic investigation (Heimildin, May 2025) found Orca and Mammoth captured only about 2,400 tons cumulatively since 2021, against a combined nameplate capacity Climeworks describes as far higher; Climeworks disputed the framing and cited 1,058 net tons captured.
Timeline
  • 2026-05-19Climeworks announces additional ~10% staff cut amid cleantech funding slowdown
  • 2026-05-01CEO Wurzbacher says US government has given no clarity on Project Cypress status
  • 2026-02-23Climeworks establishes Canadian HQ in Calgary, deepens Saudi RCJY partnership
  • 2025-07-02Climeworks raises $162m, pushing cumulative funding above $1 billion
  • 2025-07Saudi Arabia's first DAC unit inaugurated by Climeworks in Riyadh
  • 2025-05-21Climeworks announces 22% staff layoff, about 106 positions, 78 in Switzerland
  • 2025-05-21Heimildin investigation reports Orca/Mammoth delivered only ~2,400 tons since 2021
  • 2024-06-05Climeworks unveils Generation 3 sorbent DAC technology developed with Svante
  • 2022-08-29Climeworks closes CHF 600m ($650m) equity round led by Partners Group and GIC
  • 2022-07Microsoft signs 10-year carbon removal offtake agreement with Climeworks
Revision history
25 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources