Is Deere profitable in 2026?

Yes. In Q2 FY2026 (quarter ended May 3, 2026), Deere reported net income of $1.773 billion, EPS of $6.55, and net sales and revenues of $13.369 billion, up 5% year over year. Full-year FY2026 net income guidance is maintained at $4.5 to $5.0 billion, as of 2026-05-21.

Could AI replace Deere?

No. Deere deploys AI itself as a product feature rather than being disrupted by it, its See & Spray computer-vision system covered over 5 million acres by late 2025, and the company targets fully autonomous corn/soybean production by 2030, per a 2026-07-14 report.

Is Deere laying off workers in 2025 and 2026?

Yes. 2024 saw 2,167 layoffs across Iowa/Illinois plants, 2025 WARN filings recorded at least 21 notices covering 1,423+ workers, and 238 more job cuts across three plants were confirmed in mid-2025, tied to the ongoing agricultural downcycle.

Who is Deere's biggest competitor?

In harvesters, Deere led with over 12% market share in 2025, while the top 5 players (Deere, CNH Industrial, CLAAS, Kubota, AGCO) together held only about 30%, a fragmented market. In construction equipment, Caterpillar is the closest large rival, as of 2025-12-31.

Who owns Deere & Company?

Deere & Company is publicly traded on the NYSE under ticker DE with no parent company; its stock traded around $587.62 as of 2026-07-20. It has been public for well over a century, founded in 1837 in Grand Detour, Illinois.

Is Deere's farm equipment business shrinking?

Yes, cyclically. FY2025 revenue of $45.7 billion is down sharply from the FY2023 peak of $61.25 billion and net income of $10.17 billion, reflecting an agricultural downcycle that management called likely bottoming out in FY2026, per the 2026-05-21 earnings call.

Manufacturing companies · United States

Deere

deere.com ↗

Deere makes tractors and heavy equipment, layering AI and GPS onto the hardware it sells.

Hard to displace

Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026

Strong structural protection; the business model survives ai pressure.

On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from July 8, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: FTC right-to-repair consent order forces Deere to license repair software to independent shops

The call

Deere sells the hardware and owns the dealer and data pipes around it, so the near term story is a farm equipment cycle bottoming out, not a company being replaced by software.

Deere makes heavy farm machinery and owns the data that comes from farmers using it, plus controls how and where farmers get repairs. No competitor or AI company can quickly build the same combination of equipment factories, customer information, and repair networks that Deere has built over nearly 200 years. The one real threat is a new law that forces Deere to let independent repair shops access the same software tools the company does, which could eventually squeeze the huge profits Deere makes from parts and service.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. Deere uses AI itself (See & Spray, autonomous tillage) as a selling feature, not something eating its business from outside. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: None apparent. CNH and Caterpillar compete on equipment but none match Deere's scale, dealer network, and in-house financing arm. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. Owns the dealer network, the financing, and the field data flowing through Operations Center, hard for any rival to copy fast.

What would change this call

Q3 FY2026 earnings (~Aug 2026) show whether ag cycle bottomed as management claimed. Tests if Large Ag demand is recovering or guidance ($4.5-5.0B net income) is at risk.
Commerce Dept Section 232 ruling on heavy-equipment imports from Mexico plants. Would show if tariffs squeeze construction-segment margin while ag stays weak.
Independent shops' access and pricing under the July 2026 right-to-repair consent order. Reveals whether third-party repair software erodes Deere's high-margin parts/service business.

Key numbers

FY2025 revenue $45.7B, net income $5.03B (2025-11-02)
Q2 FY2026 net income $1.773B, EPS $6.55 (2026-05-21)
See & Spray used on over 5 million acres (2025-12-31)

Named risks

10-year right-to-repair consent order may erode high-margin parts and service aftermarket revenue. Severity: medium
Section 232 tariff investigation could tax new Mexico plants supplying US construction equipment. Severity: medium
Ag downcycle could extend into FY2027 if 'cycle bottom' call proves wrong, risking further layoffs. Severity: medium
Continued WARN-filed layoffs in Iowa and Illinois plants amid weak Large Ag demand. Severity: medium
Brazilian real strength and high interest rates pressuring South American equipment sales. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
CNH Industrial	contesting	Part of top-5 harvester makers holding combined ~30% share vs Deere's 12%+ in 2025
Caterpillar	contesting	Named alongside Deere in Apr 2026 Section 232 tariff probe request on Mexico-made construction gear
AGCO	contesting	Fendt/Massey Ferguson/Valtra brands compete in fragmented harvester market, 2025
Kubota	contesting	Cited among top-5 harvester competitors with combined ~30% share, 2025-12-31
CLAAS	contesting	European harvester rival among top-5 players holding combined ~30% share, 2025

Questions people ask

Is Deere profitable in 2026?: Yes. In Q2 FY2026 (quarter ended May 3, 2026), Deere reported net income of $1.773 billion, EPS of $6.55, and net sales and revenues of $13.369 billion, up 5% year over year. Full-year FY2026 net income guidance is maintained at $4.5 to $5.0 billion, as of 2026-05-21.
Could AI replace Deere?: No. Deere deploys AI itself as a product feature rather than being disrupted by it, its See & Spray computer-vision system covered over 5 million acres by late 2025, and the company targets fully autonomous corn/soybean production by 2030, per a 2026-07-14 report.
Is Deere laying off workers in 2025 and 2026?: Yes. 2024 saw 2,167 layoffs across Iowa/Illinois plants, 2025 WARN filings recorded at least 21 notices covering 1,423+ workers, and 238 more job cuts across three plants were confirmed in mid-2025, tied to the ongoing agricultural downcycle.
Who is Deere's biggest competitor?: In harvesters, Deere led with over 12% market share in 2025, while the top 5 players (Deere, CNH Industrial, CLAAS, Kubota, AGCO) together held only about 30%, a fragmented market. In construction equipment, Caterpillar is the closest large rival, as of 2025-12-31.
Who owns Deere & Company?: Deere & Company is publicly traded on the NYSE under ticker DE with no parent company; its stock traded around $587.62 as of 2026-07-20. It has been public for well over a century, founded in 1837 in Grand Detour, Illinois.
Is Deere's farm equipment business shrinking?: Yes, cyclically. FY2025 revenue of $45.7 billion is down sharply from the FY2023 peak of $61.25 billion and net income of $10.17 billion, reflecting an agricultural downcycle that management called likely bottoming out in FY2026, per the 2026-05-21 earnings call.

Timeline

2026-07-08FTC and states finalize 10-year right-to-repair consent order plus $1M settlement to states
2026-05-21Q2 FY2026 earnings: net income $1.773B, EPS $6.55, guidance held at $4.5-5.0B
2026-05-18Private class-action right-to-repair settlement (~$99M fund) preliminarily approved
2026-04-01Senators push Commerce Dept for Section 232 tariff probe on Mexico-made equipment naming Deere
2026-01-22See & Spray Gen 2 announced for MY2027, expanding crop coverage and consolidating hardware
2025-11-02FY2025 results: $45.7B revenue, $5.03B net income, headcount ~73,100
2025-08-01238 layoffs confirmed across three Illinois/Iowa plants after Q3 earnings
2024-12-312,167 layoffs recorded across Iowa/Illinois plants during the year
2023-11-04FY2023 peak: $61.25B revenue, $10.17B net income
2017-09-06Deere acquires Blue River Technology, origin of See & Spray computer vision

Revision history

20 July 2026

First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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