Is DeNA profitable in 2026?

Yes but declining. DeNA's IFRS operating profit for FY2025 (ended March 31, 2026) was Y18.7 billion, down 35.5% year-on-year, on revenue of Y147.7 billion, down 9.9%. Guidance for FY2026 forecasts operating profit falling further to Y15.0 billion despite a projected revenue rise to Y154.0 billion, as of July 1, 2026.

Is Pokemon TCG Pocket losing steam for DeNA?

Yes. Pokemon TCG Pocket, co-developed by DeNA, generated about $1.6 billion cumulative player spending by its 1.5-year mark in April 2026, but monthly spending fell roughly 51% in one six-month period and a further 32% in the next, per pocketgamer.biz data as of April 30, 2026.

Could AI replace DeNA's business?

Unlikely to replace its core moat. DeNA's value rests on licensed Nintendo/Pokemon IP access via the Nintendo Systems joint venture, owned pro sports franchises (Yokohama DeNA BayStars, Kawasaki Brave Thunders), and proprietary MYCODE genomic data, none of which AI tools can replicate; AI mainly aids content production and live-ops cost, not licensing or physical assets.

Who owns DeNA and is Nintendo still a major shareholder?

DeNA is publicly traded (TSE: 2432, OTC: DNACF) with founder Tomoko Namba holding about 16.7%. Nintendo, once holding roughly 12-15% of DeNA, sold most of its cross-shareholding in a Y285.7 billion ($1.9 billion) combined offering completed around February 27, 2026, while the two firms still co-own the 80/20 Nintendo Systems joint venture.

What is DeNA's biggest competitive threat?

Global gacha giants HoYoverse, Tencent's Level Infinite, and NetEase have taken top-grossing slots on Japan's mobile charts since 2022, per a competitive-analysis source dated November 2, 2025 (vendor-claimed). DeNA's own growth also depends heavily on Nintendo and The Pokemon Company as IP-license holders.

Did DeNA get government money for its games business?

Yes. DeNA received Y1.5 billion from Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) in June 2026 to support mobile game development, a grant to Pokemon TCG Pocket's developer that sparked domestic public criticism over fund allocation, as reported June 30, 2026.

Gaming companies · Japan

DeNA Co., Ltd.

dena.com ↗

Japanese mobile game and internet company, best known for running Pokémon TCG Pocket.

Losing its protection

Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026

The structural protection is eroding.

On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from August 6, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q1 FY2027 earnings report showing whether Pokémon TCG Pocket revenue stabilizes

The call

DeNA's near-term fate rides almost entirely on how long players keep paying for Pokémon TCG Pocket and how much say Nintendo gives it in what comes next.

DeNA is a 27-year-old Japanese company that makes mobile games, runs pro sports teams, and owns genetic testing data. Right now, almost all its profits come from Pokémon Trading Card Game Pocket, a phone game whose players are spending less money each month (down 51%, then 32% in back-to-back six-month periods). Rivals like HoYoverse and Tencent are winning the top spots on gaming charts with their own popular games, and Nintendo (which owns the Pokémon brand) could choose to work with someone else next time. The company will probably stay in business for several years because it is profitable and owns real assets, but the one thing that matters most is whether Pokémon TCG Pocket stops losing players and money by summer 2026, or whether the decline keeps going. If it keeps falling, the company's stock value faces real trouble.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. No AI product directly displaces DeNA yet; AI-assisted development mainly lowers costs for rival studios like HoYoverse and NetEase. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.

Bigger players: HoYoverse, Tencent (Level Infinite), NetEase, and Nintendo/The Pokémon Company as IP owner. Chinese studios now hold Japan's top chart slots, while Nintendo controls whether DeNA keeps co-developing the next Pokémon hit. Could a giant copy it? Probably.

What protects it. A live 20% stake in the Nintendo Systems joint venture and long Pokémon ties still give DeNA a seat at the table for future titles.

What would change this call

Aug 6, 2026 Q1 FY2027 earnings report on Pokémon TCG Pocket monthly revenue trend. Shows whether the core hit is stabilizing or continuing to roll over.
Announcement of DeNA's role (or exclusion) in Nintendo/Pokémon Company's next major co-developed title. Shows whether DeNA remains a preferred partner or is being sidelined.
Operating profit share from sports, healthcare (MYCODE), or creator-platform segments in FY2026 results. Shows whether non-game businesses are growing enough to offset games decline.

Key numbers

FY2025 revenue fell 9.9% to ¥147.7 billion (2026-05-12)
FY2025 operating profit down 35.5% to ¥18.7 billion (2026-05-12)
TCG Pocket monthly spend fell ~51% then ~32% (2026-04-30)

Named risks

Single-title dependency on Pokemon TCG Pocket amid measured revenue decline (down 51% then 32% by April 2026). Severity: high
Shrinking strategic tie to Nintendo as DeNA divests equity stake and holds only minority JV position. Severity: medium
FY2026 guidance already signals profit decline to Y15.0bn on higher strategic investment spend. Severity: medium
Global gacha giants (HoYoverse, Tencent, NetEase) capturing Japanese top-grossing chart share since 2022. Severity: medium
Political and reputational backlash over Y1.5bn government subsidy to a profitable public company (June 2026). Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
HoYoverse	gaining on	Captured top-grossing slots on Japan mobile charts since 2022 (vendor-claimed, as of 2025-11-02)
Tencent (Level Infinite)	gaining on	Cited among firms taking JP top-grossing chart slots since 2022 (vendor-claimed)
NetEase	gaining on	Cited among firms taking JP top-grossing chart slots since 2022 (vendor-claimed)
Nintendo / The Pokemon Company	contesting	DeNA holds only 20% of Nintendo Systems JV; sold majority remaining Nintendo shares by 2026-02-27

Questions people ask

Is DeNA profitable in 2026?: Yes but declining. DeNA's IFRS operating profit for FY2025 (ended March 31, 2026) was Y18.7 billion, down 35.5% year-on-year, on revenue of Y147.7 billion, down 9.9%. Guidance for FY2026 forecasts operating profit falling further to Y15.0 billion despite a projected revenue rise to Y154.0 billion, as of July 1, 2026.
Is Pokemon TCG Pocket losing steam for DeNA?: Yes. Pokemon TCG Pocket, co-developed by DeNA, generated about $1.6 billion cumulative player spending by its 1.5-year mark in April 2026, but monthly spending fell roughly 51% in one six-month period and a further 32% in the next, per pocketgamer.biz data as of April 30, 2026.
Could AI replace DeNA's business?: Unlikely to replace its core moat. DeNA's value rests on licensed Nintendo/Pokemon IP access via the Nintendo Systems joint venture, owned pro sports franchises (Yokohama DeNA BayStars, Kawasaki Brave Thunders), and proprietary MYCODE genomic data, none of which AI tools can replicate; AI mainly aids content production and live-ops cost, not licensing or physical assets.
Who owns DeNA and is Nintendo still a major shareholder?: DeNA is publicly traded (TSE: 2432, OTC: DNACF) with founder Tomoko Namba holding about 16.7%. Nintendo, once holding roughly 12-15% of DeNA, sold most of its cross-shareholding in a Y285.7 billion ($1.9 billion) combined offering completed around February 27, 2026, while the two firms still co-own the 80/20 Nintendo Systems joint venture.
What is DeNA's biggest competitive threat?: Global gacha giants HoYoverse, Tencent's Level Infinite, and NetEase have taken top-grossing slots on Japan's mobile charts since 2022, per a competitive-analysis source dated November 2, 2025 (vendor-claimed). DeNA's own growth also depends heavily on Nintendo and The Pokemon Company as IP-license holders.
Did DeNA get government money for its games business?: Yes. DeNA received Y1.5 billion from Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) in June 2026 to support mobile game development, a grant to Pokemon TCG Pocket's developer that sparked domestic public criticism over fund allocation, as reported June 30, 2026.

Timeline

2026-08-06DeNA Q1 FY2027 earnings due, key test of Pokemon TCG Pocket revenue trend
2026-07-01DeNA issues FY2026 guidance: revenue Y154.0bn, operating profit falling to Y15.0bn
2026-06-30DeNA receives Y1.5 billion METI subsidy for mobile game development, draws criticism
2026-05-20Pokemon TCG Pocket passes 200 million downloads
2026-05-12DeNA reports FY2025 revenue Y147.7bn (down 9.9%), operating profit Y18.7bn (down 35.5%)
2026-04-30Pokemon TCG Pocket hits ~$1.6bn cumulative spend; monthly spend down ~51% then ~32%
2026-02-27DeNA and other Japanese firms sell Y285.7bn of Nintendo cross-held shares
2023-01Nintendo Systems Co., Ltd. joint venture established, DeNA takes 20% stake
1999-03-04DeNA founded in Setagaya, Tokyo by Tomoko Namba as auction site Bidders

Revision history

23 July 2026

First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

In the same band

Epic Games Gamania Digital Entertainment NetDragon Websoft