WillItSurvive
Vertical and industry software · subsidiary of TBG AG · United States

DTN

dtn.com ↗

DTN sells weather and market data feeds that fuel, ag, and trading firms build workflows around.

Protection under test
Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026
Something worth protecting exists and is being tested right now.
On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from within 12 months of 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: First named enterprise (airline, refiner, or utility) publicly switches to Jua.ai or similar on accuracy or cost
The call

DTN's workflow lock-in keeps it alive, but a new CEO, PE ownership at year nine, and AI-native weather models chasing its accounts make the next year a real test.

DTN sells weather forecasts and trading data to fuel companies and farmers, handling about 85% of U.S. refined-fuel wholesale trades. It is hard to replace because its software is built into how these businesses operate every day, but a new AI company called Jua.ai just released a cheaper forecasting tool in 2026 that claims to do the same work for a fraction of the cost, and DTN's own headcount and revenue have flat-lined. The one thing to watch is whether energy and utility companies actually start switching to Jua.ai or similar AI tools in the next year, if they do, it means DTN's weather forecasts are losing their grip, not just facing hype.

Why
01
AI pressure: Jua.ai (EPT-2 model, shipped 2026). Jua benchmarks its forecasts directly against DTN, claiming far cheaper inference and pushing to win DTN's utility and energy accounts. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: IBM Weather Company, Bayer Climate FieldView, AccuWeather. These rivals have data and distribution to match DTN but have moved slowly and haven't taken named accounts yet. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. Fuel and ag customers built dispatch, trading, and risk workflows around DTN's feeds, making rip-and-replace costly even if a rival model scores better.
What would change this call
Jua.ai or a peer announces a named DTN energy, airline, or fuel customer switching to them. Would show DTN's weather-data moat is actually eroding, not just under theoretical threat.
TBG or DTN announces a strategic review, banker engagement, or sale process. Would confirm the private-equity owner is preparing an exit after 9+ years.
New CEO Manuel Zepeda reports revenue growth or a concrete AI-decisioning product within 12 months. Would show the new leadership can reverse flat revenue and headcount decline.
Key numbers
  • Revenue estimated $268M in 2026, down from $284.8M in 2022 (2026-07-15)
  • Headcount down about 11% over two years (2026-07-23)
  • PE owner TBG has held DTN 9 years since April 2017 (2026-07-23)
Named risks
  • AI-native weather models (e.g. Jua.ai EPT-2) eroding DTN's core forecasting differentiation in energy/utility accounts. Severity: high
  • PE ownership under TBG for 9 years plus new CEO and active M&A suggest possible pre-exit positioning or sale. Severity: medium
  • Headcount decline of ~10.6% over two years (2023-2025) per Revelio Labs signals cost-cutting pressure. Severity: medium
  • Software reliability failures, as in the October 2024 BBC Weather outage, can generate reputational damage. Severity: medium
  • Revenue figures are unverified third-party estimates ranging from $197M to $285M, obscuring real growth trajectory. Severity: low
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Jua.aicontestingEPT-2 model publicly benchmarked against DTN on accuracy and cost, May 2026
IBM Weather CompanycontestingDTN's neutrality as cross-vertical data broker blocks conflicted incumbent rivals
Bayer Climate FieldViewcontestingBayer-backed ag-data rival, ~$930M funding per third-party aggregator, blocked by DTN neutrality
AccuWeathercontestingNamed top-tier weather forecasting rival alongside DTN in industry market reports
Farmers Business NetworkcontestingLaunched AI agronomy tool 'Norm AI' in 2025, ~55,000 members
Questions people ask
Is DTN profitable in 2026?
DTN does not disclose profitability. It is privately held (owned by Zurich-based TBG AG since April 2017 for approximately $900M) and third-party revenue estimates vary wildly, from roughly $197M to $284M across 2022-2026, with no audited figures publicly available as of mid-2026.
Who owns DTN?
DTN has been owned by Zurich-based private investment holding TBG AG since it acquired the company from Schneider Electric for approximately $900M in April 2017. TBG later folded Europe-based MeteoGroup into DTN in September 2018.
Could AI replace DTN's weather forecasting business?
DTN's core forecasting layer is under direct challenge: AI-native startup Jua.ai shipped its EPT-2 model in 2026 and publicly benchmarked it against DTN, claiming (vendor-claimed) about four orders of magnitude lower inference cost, targeting DTN's energy and utility weather customers.
Is DTN laying people off?
Headcount data from Revelio Labs shows DTN's workforce fell from 1,568 employees in 2023 to 1,401 by December 2025, a roughly 10.6% decline, even as DTN's own July 2025 release cited 'more than 1,200 employees' globally.
Who is DTN's biggest competitor?
DTN competes with AccuWeather, IBM's The Weather Company, and Bayer's Climate FieldView in weather and ag data, but the most disruptive challenger as of 2026 is Jua.ai, an AI-native weather model provider explicitly benchmarking its EPT-2 against DTN's forecasting accuracy and cost.
Is DTN a safe company to join in 2026?
DTN is a 40-year-old, deeply entrenched B2B data provider covering roughly 85% of U.S. refined-fuel wholesale volume as of February 2026, but it has seen a two-year headcount decline of about 10.6% (Revelio Labs, through Dec 2025) and a new CEO appointed July 2026 amid PE ownership since 2017.
Timeline
  • 2026-07-10Manuel Zepeda named DTN CEO to accelerate AI-powered operational decisioning platform
  • 2026-05-24Jua.ai publishes EPT-2 vs DTN weather intelligence comparison, claiming major cost edge
  • 2026-02-19DTN launches Fuel Operations Hub covering ~85% of US refined-fuel wholesale volume
  • 2025-07-30DTN acquires Grain Discovery and takes controlling interest in Tandem Concepts
  • 2025-07-22DTN launches Operational Decisioning Platform combining hubs and operational AI
  • 2024-10-10DTN forecasting software glitch causes BBC Weather to show extreme false readings
  • 2018-09TBG folds Europe-based MeteoGroup into DTN after acquisition
  • 2017-04Schneider Electric sells DTN to TBG AG for approximately $900M
  • 2008-10Madrid-based Telvent acquires DTN for $445M, forming Telvent DTN
  • 2000DTN sold to Veronis Suhler Stevenson for $451M
Revision history
23 July 2026
First assessed. Protection under test. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
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