Is FanDuel profitable in 2026?

Flutter's US segment, mainly FanDuel, generated $6,967M revenue in FY2025, but Bank of America cut its FY2026 EBITDA estimate to $634M on July 21, 2026, well below Flutter's own $970M guidance midpoint, signaling margin pressure rather than outright unprofitability.

FanDuel is a subsidiary of Flutter Entertainment plc (NYSE: FLUT, LSE: FLTR). Flutter bought Boyd Gaming's remaining 5% stake for about $1.553bn, completed around July 10, 2025, extending the market-access partnership to 2038.

Is FanDuel laying off employees?

Yes, three rounds in roughly a year: November 2025, a March 2026 TV-network wind-down cutting 100+ roles, and a June 2026 round cutting several hundred staff across engineering, risk and customer service. FanDuel had about 5,000 employees as of June 2026.

Could AI replace FanDuel's business?

Unlikely soon. FanDuel's AceAI assistant, expanded nationwide by June 10, 2026, automates bet research and processed over 268,000 queries by July 2026, but the company's real moat is state-by-state gaming licenses across roughly 25 states and proprietary wagering data, which AI models cannot replicate.

Who is FanDuel's biggest competitor?

DraftKings is the closest direct rival, leading handle share at 35.5% versus FanDuel's 31.9% as of July 2, 2026, though FanDuel leads GGR share 37.2% to 33.7%. Federally regulated prediction markets Kalshi ($22bn valuation, May 2026) and Polymarket ($8bn, 2026) are a faster-growing flanking threat.

What is FanDuel Predicts and does it threaten the core sportsbook?

FanDuel Predicts is a prediction-markets product launched with CME Group in December 2025 across five states, about a year behind rival Kalshi. As of Flutter's February 27, 2026 earnings call, the company reported no evidence of material cannibalization of its existing sportsbook business.

Consumer platforms · subsidiary of Flutter Entertainment plc (NYSE: FLUT, LSE: FLTR) · United States

FanDuel

fanduel.com ↗

FanDuel is the top US sports betting and iGaming app, owned by Flutter Entertainment.

Losing its protection

Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026

The structural protection is eroding.

On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from Aug 5, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Flutter Q2 2026 earnings release, testing BofA's $634M EBITDA estimate against Flutter's $970M guidance

The call

FanDuel still leads US sports betting by revenue share, but growth has stalled, a CEO is gone, layoffs are underway, and federally licensed prediction markets are testing whether state gaming licenses still matter.

FanDuel lets people bet on sports games and events, and it has licenses to operate in about 25 states. It controls roughly 41 percent of the money people spend on sports betting, more than its main competitor DraftKings. But growth has nearly stopped (only 1 percent growth in sportsbooks last quarter), the company just fired its CEO, and two newer startups called Kalshi and Polymarket are taking bets through federal rules instead of state licenses, which means they do not need FanDuel's expensive state approvals to compete. The biggest question is whether FanDuel's new prediction betting product can stop people from switching to these newer rivals, or whether the government will decide federal betting rules work better than state-by-state licensing.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. No AI lab or agent is take share directly; AI mostly shows up inside FanDuel's own odds-setting and personalization tools. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: DraftKings and federal prediction markets Kalshi/Polymarket. DraftKings leads handle share (~35% vs 32%) and Kalshi/Polymarket route around state licenses via CFTC rules, pulling volume outside FanDuel's turf. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. State-by-state gaming licenses, ~41% sportsbook GGR share, and the Boyd Gaming partnership locked in through 2038.

What would change this call

Flutter's Q2 2026 earnings print on Aug 5, 2026 vs. guidance midpoint of $970M EBITDA. Confirms or disproves whether FanDuel's US growth stall is worsening.
Any CFTC or court ruling on whether Kalshi/Polymarket sports contracts need state gaming licenses. Determines if FanDuel's regulatory moat re-hardens or gets bypassed.
FanDuel sportsbook GGR share moving more than 3-5 points versus FanDuel Predicts uptake. Shows whether FanDuel's own prediction-market product is cannibalizing its core book.

Key numbers

~41% US online sportsbook GGR share (FY2025)
US Q1 2026 revenue growth slowed to +6% YoY (Q1 2026)
Kalshi valuation jumped $11B to $22B in 5 months (May 2026)

Named risks

Federal CFTC-regulated prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) bypass state licensing moat. Severity: high
Core sportsbook growth stalled to 1% YoY in Q1 2026 amid CEO turnover. Severity: high
Three layoff rounds within a year through June 2026 signal cost pressure. Severity: medium
Founder fraud lawsuit (Eccles) proceeding to discovery in New York courts. Severity: medium
Multiple gambling-addiction and consumer-protection lawsuits active in 2026. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
DraftKings	contesting	Leads handle share 35.5% vs FanDuel 31.9%, but trails on GGR share 33.7% vs 37.2% as of 2026-07-02
Kalshi	gaining on	Raised Series F at $22B in May 2026, up from $11B five months earlier, via federal CFTC route bypassing state licensing
Polymarket	gaining on	Received Intercontinental Exchange strategic investment at $8B pre-money valuation in 2026
Fanatics Sportsbook	gaining on	GGR share reportedly grew to roughly 6.9 to 8.3% in 2025 per tracker data

Questions people ask

Is FanDuel profitable in 2026?: Flutter's US segment, mainly FanDuel, generated $6,967M revenue in FY2025, but Bank of America cut its FY2026 EBITDA estimate to $634M on July 21, 2026, well below Flutter's own $970M guidance midpoint, signaling margin pressure rather than outright unprofitability.
Who owns FanDuel?: FanDuel is a subsidiary of Flutter Entertainment plc (NYSE: FLUT, LSE: FLTR). Flutter bought Boyd Gaming's remaining 5% stake for about $1.553bn, completed around July 10, 2025, extending the market-access partnership to 2038.
Is FanDuel laying off employees?: Yes, three rounds in roughly a year: November 2025, a March 2026 TV-network wind-down cutting 100+ roles, and a June 2026 round cutting several hundred staff across engineering, risk and customer service. FanDuel had about 5,000 employees as of June 2026.
Could AI replace FanDuel's business?: Unlikely soon. FanDuel's AceAI assistant, expanded nationwide by June 10, 2026, automates bet research and processed over 268,000 queries by July 2026, but the company's real moat is state-by-state gaming licenses across roughly 25 states and proprietary wagering data, which AI models cannot replicate.
Who is FanDuel's biggest competitor?: DraftKings is the closest direct rival, leading handle share at 35.5% versus FanDuel's 31.9% as of July 2, 2026, though FanDuel leads GGR share 37.2% to 33.7%. Federally regulated prediction markets Kalshi ($22bn valuation, May 2026) and Polymarket ($8bn, 2026) are a faster-growing flanking threat.
What is FanDuel Predicts and does it threaten the core sportsbook?: FanDuel Predicts is a prediction-markets product launched with CME Group in December 2025 across five states, about a year behind rival Kalshi. As of Flutter's February 27, 2026 earnings call, the company reported no evidence of material cannibalization of its existing sportsbook business.

Timeline

2026-07-21BofA cuts FanDuel FY2026 EBITDA estimate to $634M vs Flutter's $970M guidance midpoint
2026-07-10AceAI expands to nearly all states except Connecticut
2026-07-09NY judge largely denies dismissal in Eccles founder-undervaluation fraud suit
2026-06-09Third layoff round in a year hits engineering, risk, customer service
2026-05-08CEO Amy Howe ousted with $4.4M severance amid 6% YoY Q1 US revenue growth
2026-05-01Kalshi raises Series F at $22B valuation, up from $11B five months prior
2025-12FanDuel Predicts prediction-markets product launches with CME Group in five states
2025-07-10Flutter completes $1.553bn buyout of Boyd Gaming's 5% FanDuel stake, deal extended to 2038
2018-05FanDuel merges with Paddy Power Betfair US operations, becomes Flutter's US flagship
2009-07-21FanDuel founded as a daily fantasy sports provider

Revision history

23 July 2026

First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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