Freeport-McMoRan
Freeport-McMoRan mines copper and gold, anchored by the giant Grasberg deposit in Indonesia.
On the record
Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings report, focus on Grasberg restart progress
The call
Freeport sits on irreplaceable ore that AI can't touch, but a 2025 mudflow, a third restart delay, and dependence on Indonesia's goodwill are testing the company right now.
Freeport-McMoRan digs copper and gold out of the ground, mostly from a giant mine in Indonesia called Grasberg. The company is hard to copy because it owns one of the world's biggest copper deposits and has a government contract to mine there for decades, which no competitor can replace or take away. But right now, a mudflow accident in September 2025 has shut down production, delayed the restart multiple times, and cut copper output by about a quarter, which is why the stock price dropped. The main question is whether Freeport can get Grasberg running again in 2027 or 2028, or if more delays and problems will pile up.
Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI tools like McKinsey-built ML models help Freeport squeeze 5-10% more output from existing mines, they don't threaten its ore reserves. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Indonesian government (PT Freeport Indonesia 51% owner). Jakarta owns 51% of the mine and must convert a Feb 2026 MOU into a binding deal to extend rights past 2041, or terms could worsen. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. Grasberg holds 30.8 billion pounds of copper and 26.3 million ounces of gold that no competitor can replicate or relocate.
What would change this call
Grasberg Block Cave restart timeline holds at, or slips past, early 2028. Shows whether the operational disruption is stabilizing or deepening.
Indonesia's Feb 2026 mining-rights MOU converts into a signed definitive agreement. Confirms Freeport's long-term legal claim to Grasberg beyond 2041.
Copper sales volumes in upcoming quarterly reports return toward pre-mudflow levels (near 900M+ lbs). Indicates whether Grasberg output is actually recovering as projected.
Indonesia's Feb 2026 mining-rights MOU converts into a signed definitive agreement. Confirms Freeport's long-term legal claim to Grasberg beyond 2041.
Copper sales volumes in upcoming quarterly reports return toward pre-mudflow levels (near 900M+ lbs). Indicates whether Grasberg output is actually recovering as projected.
Key numbers
- Copper sales down 25-29% YoY after Sept 2025 mudflow
- Grasberg full restart delayed to early 2028
- Market cap roughly $84-89 billion
Named risks
- Fourth delay to Grasberg restart beyond early 2028 guidance.
- Indonesia MOU fails to convert from non-binding agreement to definitive mining rights extension.
- West Papua militant insurgency near Grasberg causing further casualties or disruption.
- Sustained copper price decline below $3.50-4.00/lb pressuring margins.
- Continued stock volatility from repeated guidance cuts eroding investor confidence.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation | contesting | Compared as closest large-cap copper peer in analyst coverage, 2026-05-21 |
| BHP Group | losing to | BHP targets 1,900-2,000 kt copper output FY2026 via Escondida, larger scale than FCX |
| Rio Tinto Group | contesting | Named as adjacent large-cap copper incumbent in 2026 sector comparisons |
| First Quantum Minerals | contesting | Cited as competing large-scale copper producer, 2026-07-16 |
Questions people ask
- Is Freeport-McMoRan profitable in 2026?
- Yes, but under pressure. Q1 2026 revenue rose 8.8% YoY to $6.23 billion with EPS of $0.57 beating the $0.47 consensus, though FY2024 net income was $1.89-2.2 billion and copper volumes fell 25-29% YoY due to the Grasberg mudflow, per FCX's Q1 2026 report dated 2026-04-23.
- What happened at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine?
- A September 2025 mudflow and landslide at the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine killed seven workers and halted production. The full restart has been delayed three times, from second-half 2026 to early 2027 to now early 2028, with operations running at only 40-65% of capacity through 2026-2027, per mining.com, 2026-05-08.
- Could AI replace Freeport-McMoRan's mining operations?
- No. Freeport (company-reported) deploys AI for haulage routing, ore-sorting and predictive maintenance, claiming up to 18% haulage efficiency gains as of 2026-02-26, but its moat is geological reserves and Indonesian government mining rights extended via a February 2026 MOU, neither of which AI can replicate or substitute.
- Who owns Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine?
- Freeport-McMoRan holds a 49% economic interest in PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI), which operates Grasberg, while Indonesia's government holds 51% following a 2017-2018 divestiture. In February 2026 FCX signed an MOU with Indonesia to extend PTFI's mining rights beyond their 2041 expiration.
- Is it safe to invest in or join Freeport-McMoRan right now?
- FCX stock fell 11-15% in single sessions around guidance cuts in April, June and July 2026, with a 52-week range of $35.15-$72.28 as of 2026-07-20, driven by repeated Grasberg restart delays. Long-term survival looks near certain given irreplaceable reserves, but near-term equity volatility is high.
- Who is Freeport-McMoRan's biggest competitor?
- Southern Copper Corporation (majority-owned by Grupo Mexico) is the closest large-scale copper peer, per Yahoo Finance, 2026-05-21, alongside First Quantum Minerals, Teck Resources, and industry giants BHP Group and Rio Tinto, though none directly threaten FCX's Grasberg concession or reserve base.
Timeline
- 2026-02Freeport signs MOU with Indonesia to extend PTFI mining rights beyond 2041
- 2026-01West Papua militant attacks on Freeport convoys kill soldier, injure employees
- 2025-09Grasberg Block Cave mudflow kills seven workers, halts production
- 2025-07New Eastern Java smelter produces first copper anode
- 2024-12New precious-metals refinery begins gold production
- 2022-12Grasberg reserves reported at 30.8B lbs copper, 26.3M oz gold
- 2018-12Indonesia government divestiture leaves FCX with 49% of PTFI
Revision history
20 July 2026
First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Freeport-McMoRan (2026-07-20)
- Freeport-McMoRan Earnings Date and Reports 2026 (2026-07-14)
- Which Copper Mining Giant is a Better Pick Now? (2026-05-21)
- Freeport delays Grasberg full restart to early 2028 (2026-05-08)
- Freeport-McMoRan (2026-07-02)
- CHART: Freeport-McMoRan stock craters (2026-04-23)
- gurufocus.com (2026-07-20)
- Freeport-McMoRan: Number of Employees 2012-2026
- Which Copper Mining Giant Should You Bet on Now? (2026-02-24)
- How Freeport is leading AI in mining (2023-06-22)
- Freeport-McMoRan Uses AI to Transform Mining Operations (2026-02-26)
- Freeport-McMoRan to Announce Earnings (2026-07-15)