Gartner
Gartner sells subscription research and advisory that helps big companies pick tech vendors.
On the record
Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings release, watch contract value growth and wallet retention
The call
Gartner still banks over a billion in free cash flow a year, but its main product line has stopped growing right as free AI tools start doing similar work.
Gartner is a company that researches technology markets and tells businesses which vendors are best. For decades, this was hard to do without them because they had exclusive data and customers got locked into using their reports. Now free AI tools like ChatGPT and Claude can answer similar questions instantly and for free, which has slowed Gartner's growth to almost nothing and cut its stock price in half. The one thing that matters most is whether customers actually stay loyal when they can get answers from an AI instead, starting with the next earnings report in August 2026.
Why
01
AI pressure: ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and AI-native tools like AlphaSense. Free chatbots now summarize vendor comparisons that used to require a Gartner subscription, and contract growth has stalled to 1%. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: None apparent. No single big-company rival is named as the driver here, the pressure comes from AI tools broadly, not one giant. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. 15,000+ locked-in clients pay for liability cover and proprietary benchmarking data that a chatbot answer cannot replace in a procurement decision.
What would change this call
Q2 2026 earnings August 4, 2026: Contract Value growth rate ex-Federal. Reacceleration to mid-single-digits signals AI threat contained; flat or negative confirms disintermediation.
Wallet retention rate reported in Q2 2026 filings. Holding above 105% shows lock-in intact; dropping below 100% shows clients leaving.
AlphaSense funding, revenue, or enterprise client announcements over next 12 months. Growth would show AI-native research tools converting Gartner's enterprise base.
Wallet retention rate reported in Q2 2026 filings. Holding above 105% shows lock-in intact; dropping below 100% shows clients leaving.
AlphaSense funding, revenue, or enterprise client announcements over next 12 months. Growth would show AI-native research tools converting Gartner's enterprise base.
Key numbers
- Contract value grew just 1% YoY to $5.3B
- Stock down about 47% in 2025, worst in decades
- Shares near $135-140, down 44.67% year to date
Named risks
- Generative AI disintermediating core synthesized research and vendor-comparison product.
- Contract Value growth stalled at 1% YoY, key metric Wall Street watches for AI erosion.
- Continued stock volatility and analyst target divergence ahead of August 4, 2026 earnings.
- Shrinking US Federal segment (~$114M CV) acting as ongoing growth drag.
- Restructuring program 'Plan for Success' could draw scrutiny as disguised mass layoffs.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Forrester Research | gaining on | Forrester stock near $9.37 vs Gartner CV growth stalled to 1% YoY, 2026-07-01 |
| AlphaSense and AI-native research tools | gaining on | Cited as structural threat to vendor-comparison demand, per 2026-05-04 analysis |
| Aragon Research | contesting | Founded by ex-Gartner VP positioning as faster AI-era alternative, 2025-10-05 |
| generative AI models (ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini) | gaining on | RBC names AI disintermediation as central bear thesis, 2025-09-09 and 2026-05-06 |
| McKinsey, BCG, Bain, Deloitte, Accenture | contesting | Compete for transformation and implementation spend adjacent to research, 2026-06-18 |
Questions people ask
- Is Gartner profitable in 2026?
- Yes. Gartner reported FY2025 net income of $729 million on $6.50 billion revenue (up 3.67% YoY), and FY2026 guidance issued May 2026 targets adjusted EBITDA of at least $1.545 billion and free cash flow of at least $1.16 billion, per company guidance.
- Could AI replace Gartner's research business?
- Wall Street thinks it's a real risk: RBC Capital Markets initiated coverage in September 2025 citing 'concerns whether generative AI tools could disrupt its business model,' and Gartner's Contract Value growth stalled to just 1% YoY as of March 31, 2026, the metric analysts watch for disintermediation.
- Is Gartner laying off employees?
- Yes. Headcount fell to 20,244 employees at December 31, 2025, down 800 (-3.8%) from 21,044 in 2024, per stockanalysis.com (2026-06-17). A program called 'Plan for Success' drove performance-linked terminations, including a large cut at Gartner's Gurgaon, India office in September 2025.
- Who is Gartner's biggest competitor?
- Forrester Research (NASDAQ: FORR) is Gartner's closest direct competitor, offering subscription research plus advisory and events, though far smaller with roughly $500 million+ revenue and a stock trading near $9.37 as of July 2026, versus Gartner's $6.5 billion revenue.
- What is Gartner's stock doing in 2026?
- As of July 13, 2026, Gartner shares traded around $135 to $140, down roughly 44.67% year-to-date from the 2025 high, within a 52-week range of $124.25 to $360.49, according to marketscreener.com and gurufocus.com data dated July 21, 2026.
- Does Gartner have its own AI product?
- Yes, AskGartner, a generative-AI tool giving clients natural-language access to Gartner's proprietary research dataset of 500,000+ executive interactions, launched in phased rollout starting around Q2 2025 and reportedly delivers 30 to 50 percent time savings for users, per company materials (2025-08-16 and 2026-04-29).
Timeline
- 2026-07-20Gartner forecasts worldwide AI platform spending to hit $64B in 2026, up 63.4% YoY
- 2026-06-24Wells Fargo cuts Gartner target to $120 (Underweight), from $140
- 2026-05-11Gartner study finds 80% of AI-piloting businesses report workforce reductions, ROI unclear
- 2026-05-01Gartner raises FY2026 guidance: revenue ≥$6.405B, FCF ≥$1.16B
- 2026-03-31Contract Value hits $5.3B, up only 1% YoY (ex-Federal +3.5%)
- 2026-02-01CEO Eugene Hall sells shares at ~$159.75, following Pagliuca's December buying
- 2025-12-01Director Stephen Pagliuca buys shares at $225 to $232 in multiple tranches
- 2025-09-09RBC initiates coverage at Sector Perform, citing generative AI disruption risk
- 2025-09-01Large-scale layoffs reported at Gartner's Gurgaon, India office
- 2025-08-01Gartner stock drops 27.6% in single day on guidance cut
Revision history
21 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Gartner Revenue & Financial Statements (2026-07-14)
- Gartner Q1 2026 Earnings (2026-07-14)
- Gartner Earnings Report (2026-07-14)
- Gartner 2025 Collapse Timeline (2025-12-31)
- Gartner Q2 Contract Value Growth (2026-07-13)
- GuruFocus Gartner Profile (2026-07-21)
- Gartner Company Profile (2026-03-12)
- Gartner Business Analysis (2026-03-10)
- Gartner Porter's Five Forces Analysis (2025-12-20)
- Gartner Employee Count (2026-06-17)
- Revelio Labs Gartner Employees (2026-06-29)
- Gartner Historical Employee Data (2025-02-13)