WillItSurvive

GOG.com

DRM-free PC games storefront, sold by CD Projekt to co-founder Kiciński for $25.2M in 2025.

Losing its protection
Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from Q1 2027 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: First post-spinoff annual results and profitability check under Kiciński ownership
The call

GOG survives on legal know-how and one loyal publisher parent, not on Steam being unable to copy it, just uninterested.

GOG is an online store that sells video games, especially older ones, without digital locks that prevent sharing or copying. It has real fans who prefer this approach, and it has spent years getting legal rights to resell games that are hard to find anywhere else. Steam dominates PC gaming with about 75 percent of sales, but Steam simply ignores the DRM-free market rather than being blocked from entering it, which means GOG's advantage depends on Steam staying uninterested. The one thing that could turn this around: if the new owner starts funding original games or publishing exclusive titles instead of just reselling old ones, the whole business model and profit picture could shift.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI mostly touches discovery and support tools; GOG's real product is legal rights-clearance and file hosting, which AI doesn't replace. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Steam (Valve). Steam has 74-75% of PC digital revenue and 132M users; it could add DRM-free options anytime but hasn't bothered. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. Legal relicensing relationships for 300+ old titles and a guaranteed CD Projekt RED distribution deal that Steam can't easily replicate.
What would change this call
Kiciński announces a funded original game or major publisher partnership by end of 2026. Would show GOG shifting from pure storefront to publisher, changing its economics.
GOG posts two to three consecutive profitable quarters post-spinoff. Would show the standalone business is financially viable, not just break-even.
Another headcount cut announced in 2026 or 2027 following the 2019 and 2024 layoff pattern. Would show the recurring trim cycle continuing under new ownership.
Key numbers
  • Sold for $25.2 million (2025-12-29)
  • Q3 2025 revenue ~$13.6 million (2025-09-30)
  • Steam holds 74-75% PC distribution share (2026-07-13)
Named risks
  • Chronic near-zero profitability with recurring layoffs roughly every 2-3 years. Severity: high
  • Loss of CD Projekt's financial cushion after December 2025 spinoff. Severity: medium
  • Payment-processor (Visa/Mastercard) pressure on adult-content catalog echoing 2025 Steam/itch.io removals. Severity: medium
  • Reputational/PR incidents such as the June 2026 SS-rune newsletter apology. Severity: low
  • Resource asymmetry versus Steam and Epic in deploying AI for discovery and support. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Steam (Valve)contestingDominant PC storefront, uninterested in DRM-free niche rather than blocked from it, as of 2026
Epic Games StorecontestingHolds ~3% PC distribution revenue share with lower dev cut and 270M+ accounts, 2026-07-16
itch.iocontestingComparable small scale (~$6.5M revenue, 11 staff) competing in indie/DRM-free adjacent space, 2026-07-06
Green Man GamingcontestingCEO publicly criticized platform concentration, an indirect pressure point on 2026 digital sales dynamics
Questions people ask
Is GOG.com profitable?
GOG's net profit has been 'close to zero' for years, per CD Projekt's own disclosures. In Q3 2025, GOG generated PLN 48.9 million (about $13.6 million) revenue, roughly 14% of CD Projekt Group's total, but margins stayed near break-even (2025-12-30).
Who owns GOG.com now?
As of 29 December 2025, GOG is owned by Michał Kiciński, one of its original co-founders and a CD Projekt shareholder, who bought it from CD Projekt S.A. for PLN 90.7 million (about $25.2 million). He took formal control on 8 January 2026.
Could AI replace GOG.com?
Unlikely for its core function: GOG's value is legal rights-clearance and relicensing work to restore decades-old games, a relationship-driven, archival process, not AI-generatable. AI could automate peripheral tasks like search and support, where larger rivals have more resources, as of 2026.
Who is GOG.com's biggest competitor?
Steam (Valve) is the dominant PC digital distribution platform and the main pressure on GOG's niche, though it has shown no interest in copying GOG's DRM-free model. Epic Games Store holds about 3% of PC distribution revenue as of July 2026, per tech-insider.org.
Will GOG.com start publishing its own games?
New owner Michał Kiciński signaled interest in publishing original retro-styled games in 2026 to 2027 (per a report dated 2025-12-30), but as of taking formal control on 8 January 2026 he stated there was 'no rush' and no confirmed near-term pivot.
Is GOG.com still connected to CD Projekt?
Yes, despite the December 2025 sale. CD Projekt and GOG signed a distribution agreement ensuring future CD Projekt RED titles, including Witcher 4 and Cyberpunk 2, will still launch on GOG, confirmed in the 29 December 2025 sale announcement.
Timeline
  • 2026-06-05GOG apologizes for marketing email using SS-rune styling for a game title
  • 2026-01-08Michał Kiciński formally takes sole control of GOG, signals no near-term pivot
  • 2025-12-30Kiciński signals interest in publishing original retro-styled games in 2026-2027
  • 2025-12-29CD Projekt sells GOG to co-founder Kiciński for PLN 90.7M (~$25.2M)
  • 2025-09-30GOG posts Q3 2025 revenue of PLN 48.9M (~$13.6M), 14% of CD Projekt Group total
  • 2025-08-31GOG runs 'Freedom To Buy' giveaway protesting payment-processor delistings
  • 2024-11-13GOG Preservation Program launches with 100+ restored titles
  • 2024-10-31GOG lays off 20-30 employees, up to 20% of headcount
  • 2019-07-11GOG lays off about 12 staff (~10%) amid financial pressure
  • 2008-02-22GOG founded as 'Good Old Games'
Revision history
23 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources