Is Grinding Gear Games profitable in 2026?

Yes. GGG reported profit after tax of roughly €95.3 million for a 15-month fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, described as quadrupling prior-period profit, driven by Path of Exile 2's early access launch, per its NZ annual report covered June 24, 2026.

Who owns Grinding Gear Games?

Tencent owns 100% of Grinding Gear Games as of March 2024, after its stake rose from 86.67% in May 2018 to 93% in December 2023, then the founders sold their remaining shares to Tencent.

Could AI replace Grinding Gear Games' developers?

Unlikely for core design work. GGG's value rests on 13-plus years of interlocking itemization and passive-tree systems design, which industry analysis flags as AI-resistant on mature complex codebases; a cited METR study found experienced developers 19% slower with AI tools on such codebases as of June 2026.

Is joining Grinding Gear Games a safe career move?

It appears stable: headcount grew from 180 staff in April 2024 to 240 by July 2025, the studio is profitable and pays dividends to Tencent, but co-founder Chris Wilson departed in January 2025 to start a rival studio, Light Pattern.

Who is Grinding Gear Games' biggest competitor?

Blizzard Entertainment's Diablo 4 is the closest AAA rival, alongside Eleventh Hour Games' Last Epoch; GGG director Jonathan Rogers said in May 2026 the studio won't time Path of Exile 2's 1.0 launch around competitors' releases.

When is Path of Exile 2's full 1.0 release?

GGG is targeting 'later 2026' for Path of Exile 2's 1.0 launch, with director Jonathan Rogers saying in May 2026 he hopes to avoid a slip into 2027; a reveal is expected at ExileCon on November 7-8, 2026 in Auckland.

Gaming companies · subsidiary of Tencent · New Zealand

Grinding Gear Games

grindinggear.com ↗

New Zealand studio behind Path of Exile 1 and 2, owned outright by Tencent.

Hard to displace

Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026

Strong structural protection; the business model survives ai pressure.

On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from Nov 7-8, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: ExileCon, expected to reveal Path of Exile 2's 1.0 launch date

The call

GGG runs two profitable live-service games under full Tencent ownership, with Path of Exile 2's 1.0 launch as the event that will decide if the current player drop is normal or a warning sign.

Grinding Gear Games built Path of Exile over 13 years into a deep, systems-heavy online role-playing game where thousands of items and character abilities fit together like interlocking puzzle pieces, and they're now releasing Path of Exile 2 in early access. Blizzard's Diablo 4 targets casual players with simpler mechanics, which is a completely different game design philosophy and not easily copied to compete on PoE's turf. The one thing that matters most: whether Path of Exile 2's full release in 2026 keeps players engaged and profitable, and whether Tencent lets the game's creative team keep running things their way or starts pushing for different kinds of spending.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI tools speed up their own art and code pipelines but no AI product makes loot-driven RPGs like this obsolete. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Blizzard Entertainment (Diablo 4). Diablo 4 is live and mass-market, but it chases a simpler audience while Path of Exile owns players who want deep, punishing systems. Could a giant copy it? Probably.

What protects it. 13 years of interlocking itemization and passive-tree systems plus a hardcore community that Diablo's simpler design doesn't try to serve.

What would change this call

GGG announces PoE2 1.0 release date at ExileCon Nov 7-8, 2026. Shows whether launch stays on 2026 track or slips into 2027.
GGG's mid-late 2026 NZ Companies Office annual filing. Reveals whether post-early-access profit and dividend levels to Tencent hold or normalize.
Senior creative staff departures to Chris Wilson's studio Light Pattern. Would signal erosion of founder-era talent underpinning PoE's design moat.

Key numbers

NZ$105M revenue for the fiscal year (2025-07-29)
NZ$100M paid to Tencent in dividends (2025-12-31)
PoE2 concurrent players fell ~79% Nov to Dec (2025-12-01)

Named risks

PoE2 1.0 launch could slip into 2027, undercutting momentum and revenue timing. Severity: high
Founder departures and reported discord could signal governance instability under sole Tencent ownership. Severity: medium
Highly volatile concurrent-player counts between league cycles complicate sustained-traction claims. Severity: medium
Tencent could pressure monetization changes post founder-era exit, risking community trust. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Blizzard Entertainment (Diablo 4)	contesting	GGG director says PoE2 1.0 launch (late 2026) won't be timed around Diablo releases, as of 2026-05-12
Eleventh Hour Games (Last Epoch)	contesting	GGG directors named Last Epoch a direct competitor upon PoE2's EA launch, Nov 2024
Light Pattern (Chris Wilson's new studio)	losing to	Co-founder Chris Wilson left GGG Jan 21, 2025 to found rival ARPG studio Light Pattern

Questions people ask

Is Grinding Gear Games profitable in 2026?: Yes. GGG reported profit after tax of roughly €95.3 million for a 15-month fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, described as quadrupling prior-period profit, driven by Path of Exile 2's early access launch, per its NZ annual report covered June 24, 2026.
Who owns Grinding Gear Games?: Tencent owns 100% of Grinding Gear Games as of March 2024, after its stake rose from 86.67% in May 2018 to 93% in December 2023, then the founders sold their remaining shares to Tencent.
Could AI replace Grinding Gear Games' developers?: Unlikely for core design work. GGG's value rests on 13-plus years of interlocking itemization and passive-tree systems design, which industry analysis flags as AI-resistant on mature complex codebases; a cited METR study found experienced developers 19% slower with AI tools on such codebases as of June 2026.
Is joining Grinding Gear Games a safe career move?: It appears stable: headcount grew from 180 staff in April 2024 to 240 by July 2025, the studio is profitable and pays dividends to Tencent, but co-founder Chris Wilson departed in January 2025 to start a rival studio, Light Pattern.
Who is Grinding Gear Games' biggest competitor?: Blizzard Entertainment's Diablo 4 is the closest AAA rival, alongside Eleventh Hour Games' Last Epoch; GGG director Jonathan Rogers said in May 2026 the studio won't time Path of Exile 2's 1.0 launch around competitors' releases.
When is Path of Exile 2's full 1.0 release?: GGG is targeting 'later 2026' for Path of Exile 2's 1.0 launch, with director Jonathan Rogers saying in May 2026 he hopes to avoid a slip into 2027; a reveal is expected at ExileCon on November 7-8, 2026 in Auckland.

Timeline

2026-07-24Path of Exile expansion Curse of the Allflame launches
2026-05-29PoE2 patch 0.5.0 Return of the Ancients ships as final major EA update before 1.0
2026-05-12Director says PoE2 1.0 won't be timed around rivals, hopes to avoid 2027 slip
2025-12-31GGG's 15-month FY closes with reported ~€95.3M profit after tax
2025-07-01GGG headcount reaches 240 staff, up from 180 in April 2024
2025-01-21Co-founder Chris Wilson formally departs GGG per Companies Office filing
2024-12-06Path of Exile 2 enters paid Early Access on PC, PS5, Xbox Series X/S
2024-03-01Tencent becomes 100% owner after founders sell remaining shares
2018-05-21Tencent takes 86.67% majority stake in Grinding Gear Games
2013-01-01Original Path of Exile is released

Revision history

23 July 2026

First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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