Is Hello Group (Momo) profitable in 2026?

Yes, Hello Group remains cash-generative: it declared its eighth consecutive annual special dividend of US$0.28 per ADS in early 2026, equal to about 30% of adjusted 2025 net income, even as total revenue fell 1.9% YoY to RMB10.37B for FY2025.

Is Momo losing users to Douyin and Kuaishou?

Yes. Domestic revenue fell 11% YoY in FY2025 and 15% YoY in Q1 2026 (ended 2026-03-31), with management and third-party analysts citing Douyin and Kuaishou pulling attention and gifting spend away from Momo's live-streaming core.

Who owns Hello Group (Momo)?

Hello Group is a standalone NASDAQ-listed company (MOMO), not owned by Tencent. As of 2026-07-15, founder/COO Sichuan Zhang held roughly 13.6% and Chairman/CEO Yan Tang roughly 10-12.7%, with the rest split between institutions and public retail float.

Could AI companion apps replace Momo and Tantan?

Partly. Character.AI-style apps compete for parasocial chat engagement, and Hello Group itself launched an AI companion app, MiraiMind, in Japan with 1M+ downloads by early 2026, but management still calls live-streaming gifting its main revenue engine as of FY2025.

It's shrinking. Tantan's paying users fell from about 700,000 to 600,000 YoY by Q4 2025, and Alipay's auto-renewal policy change further hurt its domestic subscriber base in Q1 2026 (ended 2026-03-31), per company earnings materials.

What is Hello Group's biggest competitor?

Domestically, Tencent-backed Soul and ByteDance's Douyin/Kuaishou are the most cited rivals pressuring Momo's engagement and ad/gifting revenue as of 2025-2026; overseas, Match Group's Tinder/Hinge and Bigo Live compete in dating and live-streaming.

Consumer platforms · China

Hello Group (Momo)

immomo.com ↗

Chinese social and live-streaming app operator behind Momo and Tantan, mature and shrinking at home.

Losing its protection

Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026

The structural protection is eroding.

On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from September 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings, testing RMB2.45-2.55B guidance and the RMB3B FY2026 overseas milestone

The call

Momo's home business keeps shrinking under Douyin, Kuaishou and Soul while an unproven overseas push and AI companion apps both crowd its edges.

Hello Group runs Momo and Tantan, dating and social apps popular in China that let people meet and chat. The company is getting harder to compete against because big Chinese apps like Douyin are adding their own dating features for free, and the government is taking more money through taxes and fines. The only bright spot is growth overseas, which is growing fast but is still small and shaky (some regions got blocked recently). The real question is whether overseas can grow fast enough to make up for losses at home before AI chatbots convince people they do not need real people to talk to.

Why

AI pressure: Character.AI, PolyBuzz and other AI companion apps. AI companions offer cheaper parasocial attention than paid human hosts, pulling lonely users away from Momo and Tantan's live-streaming tips. Could AI do the core job? Yes, likely.

Bigger players: ByteDance (Douyin/Kuaishou) and Tencent's Soul. Douyin, Kuaishou and Soul absorb the short-video and social-discovery time that used to flow to Momo's live rooms, driving 11-15% domestic revenue declines. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.

What protects it. Cash flow from a large paying live-streaming base and eight straight years of special dividends keep the company solvent while it hunts for growth abroad.

What would change this call

Q2 2026 earnings (Sept 2026) show domestic revenue decline steeper than mid-teens YoY. Would show core China business losing ground faster than management projected.
FY2026 overseas revenue lands well short of the RMB3B target. Would show the international growth engine failing to offset domestic erosion.
Company cuts or skips its annual special dividend after eight consecutive years. Would show cash generation weakening enough to threaten the main reason to hold the stock.

Key numbers

FY2025 revenue RMB10.37B, down 1.9% YoY (2025-12-31)
Q1 2026 domestic revenue down 15% YoY (2026-03-31)
Overseas revenue up 44% YoY, now 25% of total (2026-03-31)

Named risks

Domestic revenue decline accelerating (down 15% YoY Q1 2026) amid tax enforcement and weak consumer sentiment. Severity: high
Chinese regulatory clawback on offshore tax structures after RMB547.9M back-tax disclosure (2025-09). Severity: high
Overseas growth concentrated in volatile MENA/Turkey markets, disrupted by regulatory action and conflict in Q1 2026. Severity: medium
AI-companion apps eroding parasocial gifting/chat engagement that underpins core revenue. Severity: medium
Payment-channel policy shifts (e.g., Alipay auto-renewal change) reducing domestic paying subscribers. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Douyin/Kuaishou (ByteDance)	gaining on	Domestic revenue down 11% YoY FY2025, 15% YoY Q1 2026, cited as pulled to short-video platforms
Soul (Tencent-backed)	gaining on	Direct rival in China dating/social discovery, cited as of 2026-03-18 market report
Match Group (Tinder, Hinge)	contesting	Sued Tantan over IP in 2018, settled; remains global swipe-dating incumbent
Character.AI / PolyBuzz	contesting	AI-companion apps substitute for parasocial chat engagement, crowding MiraiMind's category as of 2026-02
Bigo Live	gaining on	Cited as global live-streaming/gifting competitor raising monetization bar, per 2025-12-29 market report

Questions people ask

Is Hello Group (Momo) profitable in 2026?: Yes, Hello Group remains cash-generative: it declared its eighth consecutive annual special dividend of US$0.28 per ADS in early 2026, equal to about 30% of adjusted 2025 net income, even as total revenue fell 1.9% YoY to RMB10.37B for FY2025.
Is Momo losing users to Douyin and Kuaishou?: Yes. Domestic revenue fell 11% YoY in FY2025 and 15% YoY in Q1 2026 (ended 2026-03-31), with management and third-party analysts citing Douyin and Kuaishou pulling attention and gifting spend away from Momo's live-streaming core.
Who owns Hello Group (Momo)?: Hello Group is a standalone NASDAQ-listed company (MOMO), not owned by Tencent. As of 2026-07-15, founder/COO Sichuan Zhang held roughly 13.6% and Chairman/CEO Yan Tang roughly 10-12.7%, with the rest split between institutions and public retail float.
Could AI companion apps replace Momo and Tantan?: Partly. Character.AI-style apps compete for parasocial chat engagement, and Hello Group itself launched an AI companion app, MiraiMind, in Japan with 1M+ downloads by early 2026, but management still calls live-streaming gifting its main revenue engine as of FY2025.
Is Tantan dying?: It's shrinking. Tantan's paying users fell from about 700,000 to 600,000 YoY by Q4 2025, and Alipay's auto-renewal policy change further hurt its domestic subscriber base in Q1 2026 (ended 2026-03-31), per company earnings materials.
What is Hello Group's biggest competitor?: Domestically, Tencent-backed Soul and ByteDance's Douyin/Kuaishou are the most cited rivals pressuring Momo's engagement and ad/gifting revenue as of 2025-2026; overseas, Match Group's Tinder/Hinge and Bigo Live compete in dating and live-streaming.

Timeline

2026-07-21Chinese state media signals intensified Beijing scrutiny of offshore corporate tax structures
2026-06-02Q1 2026 earnings call; guides Q2 2026 revenue RMB2.45-2.55B, FY2026 slight decline
2026-05-01Compliance and incentive program changes for agencies introduced amid tax enforcement
2026-03-31Q1 2026 revenue RMB2.39B, down 5% YoY; domestic down 15% YoY; SoulChill Turkey/MENA disruption
2026-03-18FY2025 results announced; Tantan paying users fell from ~700K to ~600K YoY
2026-01-01Eighth consecutive annual special dividend declared, US$0.28 per ADS
2025-12-31FY2025 total net revenue RMB10.37B, down 1.9% YoY; overseas revenue up 71% YoY
2025-09-01Disclosed RMB547.9 million back-tax liability tied to Hong Kong entity
2021-08Company renamed from Momo Inc. to Hello Group Inc.
2018-05-21Acquired dating app Tantan for $800 million

Revision history

23 July 2026

First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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