WillItSurvive
E-commerce and marketplaces · subsidiary of Prosus (via Movile holding structure; Prosus completed acquisition of JET's 33% stake in Nov 2022, giving Prosus/Movile full ownership) · Brazil

iFood

iFood runs Brazil's largest food delivery marketplace, now layering fintech, ads and benefits on top.

Losing its protection
Assessed 22 July 2026 · Evidence as of 22 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 22 July 2026 · Checkable from H1 2027 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: CADE ruling on iFood's predatory-pricing complaint against 99Food and Keeta
The call

iFood still leads Brazilian food delivery by a wide margin, but DiDi and Meituan-backed rivals have already carved into its home market of Sao Paulo.

iFood delivers food in Brazil and makes money from delivery fees, restaurant ads, and financial services for customers and restaurants. It is hard to replace because it has 55 million users and 400,000 restaurants signed up, plus growing income from ads and lending that brings in more than half its revenue. But 99Food, backed by DiDi with a huge budget, has already stolen market share from iFood in São Paulo (dropping from 64% to 52% in just a few months), and Keeta, backed by Meituan, is also attacking. The one thing that could save iFood's leadership is whether the courts block 99Food and Keeta from using unfair pricing tactics, or whether iFood can keep enough restaurants and customers to stay ahead even as rivals spend freely to win them over.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI ordering agents like ChatGPT or Gemini commerce features could someday route orders around iFood's app, but none do yet in Brazil. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: 99Food (DiDi-backed) and Keeta (Meituan-backed). 99Food's subsidized pricing cut iFood's Sao Paulo value share from 64% to 52.3% between mid-2025 and October 2025. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. 400,000 merchants, 55 million customers, and fintech/ads/benefits revenue growing over 40% a year make switching costly for both sides of the marketplace.
What would change this call
Whether iFood's São Paulo share (52.3% as of Oct 2025) falls further or stabilizes over the next two quarters. Shows whether 99Food's discounting is a lasting shift or a temporary dent.
Whether the São Paulo erosion pattern appears in other major Brazilian cities within 1-2 quarters. Would show 99Food's tactics scaling nationally rather than staying localized.
CADE's ruling on iFood's predatory-pricing complaint against 99Food and Keeta, expected within 6 months. A ruling against the rivals would curb subsidy-driven share gains; no action would let the erosion continue.
Key numbers
  • Sao Paulo value share fell from 64% to 52.3% (Oct 2025)
  • Revenue reached R$10.1 billion (Mar 2026)
  • Fintech and ads now over 50% of revenue (Jun 2026)
Named risks
  • Documented share erosion to 99Food in Sao Paulo could spread nationally. Severity: high
  • Pending CADE rulings on predatory pricing and exclusivity could force concessions. Severity: high
  • R$5bn Alelo acquisition unresolved as of mid-2025, could collapse without benefits alternative. Severity: medium
  • Divergent headcount reporting (2,372 to 19,380 across sources) signals data/entity-scoping uncertainty. Severity: low
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
99Foodgaining onCut iFood Sao Paulo value share from 64% to 52.3%, mid-2025 to Oct 2025
Keetagaining onMeituan-backed ~$1bn entrant undercutting iFood's ~24% restaurant commission, 2025-2026
RappicontestingOnly ~7% national food-delivery share as of 2025 despite R$1.4bn 3-year investment
Uber Eatslosing toExited Brazil standalone market in 2022, now routes orders through iFood via May 2025 partnership
Questions people ask
Is iFood profitable in 2026?
Profitability figures are not disclosed publicly. iFood reported R$10.1 billion in revenue for the fiscal year April 2025 to March 2026, with fintech and advertising contributing over 50% combined and growing above 40% YoY, per BB Investalk reporting dated 2026-06-30, but no net income figure was found.
Who owns iFood?
iFood is fully owned by Prosus (via Movile) after Prosus completed its acquisition of Just Eat Takeaway's roughly 33% stake on November 22, 2022, per Just Eat Takeaway's own newsroom announcement.
Is 99Food beating iFood in Brazil?
99Food, backed by DiDi with a R$1bn investment, cut iFood's value share in the São Paulo metro from about 64% to 52.3% between mid-2025 and October 2025, per Worldpanel by Numerator data cited by Valor on 2026-01-05, though national share held up better.
Could AI replace iFood?
Unlikely as a full replacement. iFood's moat rests on physical logistics, a 400,000-merchant network, and proprietary transaction data on 55 million customers as of August 2025, which AI tools alone cannot replicate; iFood itself uses over 190 internal ML models as an efficiency layer, not a threatened core.
Who is iFood's biggest competitor?
The most active near-term threats are 99Food (DiDi-backed, R$1bn war chest) and Keeta (Meituan-backed, about $1bn), both of which shipped in Brazil in 2025 and have taken documented São Paulo share from iFood, per Valor reporting from 2026-01-05; Rappi trails with only about 7% national share as of 2025.
Is iFood involved in antitrust action in 2026?
Yes. iFood filed a CADE antitrust complaint against 99Food and Keeta in June 2026 alleging predatory discounting funded by cheap capital, per Rio Times Online dated 2026-06-30; separately Keeta's own exclusivity complaint against 99Food was reportedly dismissed by CADE staff around the same time.
Timeline
  • 2026-06-30iFood files CADE antitrust complaint against 99Food and Keeta over predatory pricing
  • 2026-06-26Abrasel criticizes CADE over Keeta exclusivity complaint dismissal, warns of iFood/99Food duopoly
  • 2026-05-20iFood takes minority stake (<5%) in grocery platform Daki
  • 2026-01-05Report shows iFood Sao Paulo value share fell from 64% to 52.3% since mid-2025
  • 2025-09-09Reporting details Keeta's ~$1bn Meituan backing and iFood's ~24% restaurant commission
  • 2025-08-05iFood announces R$17bn (~$3.1bn) investment plan for Brazil through March 2026
  • 2025-07-24iFood in advanced talks to acquire meal-voucher firm Alelo for ~R$5bn
  • 2025-03-07CADE clears iFood's acquisition of equity in online grocer Shopper
  • 2022-11-22Prosus completes acquisition of Just Eat Takeaway's iFood stake
Revision history
22 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources