WillItSurvive
Space, defense and state enterprises · Japan

ispace Inc.

ispace-inc.com ↗

Japanese company building robotic landers to deliver cargo and do business on the moon.

Losing its protection
Assessed 24 July 2026 · Evidence as of 24 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 24 July 2026 · Checkable from 2028 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Mission 3 landing attempt on the new ULTRA lander with an unproven engine
The call

ispace has government backing but no successful landing yet, and rivals with working AI descent systems already beat it to NASA's money.

ispace tries to land cargo on the moon for paying customers, but has crashed twice (2023 and 2025) while competitors like Firefly and Intuitive Machines have landed successfully and won major NASA contracts that ispace was shut out of. The company loses money every year and depends on its third landing attempt in 2028 on a brand new rocket engine to survive, since NASA already cut its partnership funding in July 2026. The biggest threat is that other companies are already using AI-powered computer vision to land safely on the moon, while ispace is still writing research papers about the same technology.

Why
01
AI pressure: Firefly Aerospace's AI-based terrain-relative navigation for landing. Firefly's landing software already avoids hazards autonomously; ispace's own AI navigation is still a research paper, and bad descent software is what crashed Mission 2. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: NASA, plus Firefly Aerospace, Intuitive Machines, and Astrobotic. NASA gave $590M in lunar contracts in June 2026 to rivals and not ispace, then cut a separate $73M ispace partnership in July 2026. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. Japan and ESA want a lunar lander that isn't American or Chinese, so government money keeps funding ispace even after two crashes.
What would change this call
ispace Mission 3 launch and landing attempt on the new ULTRA lander, targeted 2028. Success or a third failure would decide whether ispace can compete with landing-proven rivals.
Whether ispace or its US unit is included in future CLPS 2.0 contract award announcements. Continued exclusion would confirm NASA is favoring Firefly, Intuitive Machines, and Astrobotic over ispace.
Any new ispace capital raise or share count increase reported in TSE filings after March 2026. Further dilution would show funding pressure following the July 2026 NASA CP-12 contract loss.
Key numbers
  • Two straight lunar landing failures, 2023 and 2025 (2025-06)
  • Shares outstanding rose 38%, 105.7M to 146.2M (2026-03)
  • Operating loss forecast at Yen 11.5 billion for FY2026 (2025-05-09)
Named risks
  • Mission 3 (2028) uses untested ULTRA lander and new engine after two prior landing failures. Severity: high
  • Revenue growth is grant-dependent (SBIR, Japan Space Strategy Fund) rather than commercial sales. Severity: medium
  • Continued shareholder dilution from capital raises to fund ongoing operating losses. Severity: medium
  • Exclusion from NASA CLPS 2.0 bidding after July 2026 CP-12 termination could end US government revenue. Severity: high
  • AI-based descent navigation capability gap versus Firefly's operational system. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Firefly Aerospacelosing toFirefly landed successfully March 2 2025 and runs operational AI navigation since June 2026; ispace has none flown
Intuitive Machineslosing toWon part of NASA's $590M June 2026 award tranche that excluded ispace
Astroboticlosing toReceived largest share, $297.9M, of NASA's June 2026 lunar delivery awards
NASA (as customer)losing toCancelled ispace-U.S./Draper's $73M CP-12 mission in July 2026
SpaceXcontestingDominant lunar logistics via Starship, structurally outscales all commercial lander firms
Questions people ask
Is ispace Inc. profitable in 2026?
No. ispace forecast an operating loss of about 11.5 billion yen for FY2026, and its FY ending March 2026 project revenue was only 5.89 billion yen, up 18% YoY but driven mainly by SBIR grants rather than commercial sales, per the company's May 15 2026 earnings release.
Has ispace ever successfully landed a spacecraft on the moon?
No. ispace has attempted two lunar landings and failed both: Mission 1 crashed in April 2023, and Mission 2 (RESILIENCE) suffered a hard landing on June 5-6 2025 due to delayed laser rangefinder measurements causing excess descent speed, per ispace's June 24 2025 technical cause report.
What happened with ispace's NASA contract in 2026?
In July 2026, ispace-U.S. and Draper terminated their NASA CLPS CP-12 far-side lunar lander partnership after repeated delays; NASA then cancelled the $73 million CP-12 mission entirely, per Aviation Week (July 17 2026) and reporting on July 18 2026.
Who is beating ispace in the commercial lunar lander race?
Firefly Aerospace, Intuitive Machines, and Astrobotic. Firefly achieved the first fully successful commercial soft landing on March 2 2025, and in June 2026 NASA awarded these three roughly $590 million in new CLPS/Moon Base contracts, excluding ispace entirely.
Is ispace diluting shareholders?
Yes. Shares outstanding rose from about 105.7 million in March 2025 to about 146.2 million in March 2026, a roughly 38% increase, following an October-November 2025 secondary offering that raised approximately 18.2 billion yen, per ispace's FY2026 financial results.
Could AI replace ispace's lunar landing technology?
AI-based terrain-relative navigation is precisely the function tied to ispace's Mission 2 failure in June 2025. Firefly has deployed operational AI-based hazard avoidance since its March 2025 landing, while ispace-affiliated researchers published only a research-stage optical-flow navigation paper in November 2025.
Timeline
  • 2026-07-24ispace Europe wins $74M/€65M ESA contract for MAGPIE lunar rover, to fly on Mission 4 (2029)
  • 2026-07-18NASA cancels the $73M CP-12 far-side lunar mission following partnership termination
  • 2026-07-17ispace-U.S. and Draper terminate NASA CLPS CP-12 far-side lunar lander partnership
  • 2026-06-30NASA awards ~$590M to Astrobotic, Firefly, and Intuitive Machines; ispace excluded
  • 2026-05-15ispace reports FY2026 project revenue of ¥5.89B, up 18% YoY, largely grant-driven
  • 2026-03-27ispace unveils consolidated ULTRA lander with new engine vendor, replacing VoidRunner
  • 2026-03-26ispace confirms Mission 3 landing attempt now planned for 2028
  • 2025-11ispace-affiliated researchers publish ESA-linked optical-flow navigation research paper
  • 2025-06-05Mission 2 (RESILIENCE) suffers hard landing and loss of communication on the moon
  • 2023-04-12ispace IPOs on Tokyo Stock Exchange Growth Market under ticker 9348
Revision history
24 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Intuitive MachinesUnited Launch AllianceAST SpaceMobile
More in Space, defense and state enterprises →
Sources