Kaspersky
Russian-founded antivirus and threat-intelligence vendor serving consumer and enterprise markets worldwide.
On the record
Checkpoint: EU Council cyber-sanctions regime renewal decision, watch for direct Kaspersky naming
The call
Kaspersky keeps growing revenue and B2B share outside the West while US and allied sanctions steadily lock it out of the wealthiest markets.
Kaspersky makes antivirus and cybersecurity software, and it is skilled at spotting new threats and protecting industrial systems. Normally this expertise would be hard to replace, but the company is not being beaten by competitors like Norton or Microsoft; instead, the US government added it to a trade blacklist in 2024, and other countries followed with bans, cutting its Western customers by nearly two-thirds. The one thing that could change the picture is whether the European Union decides to lift or ease these restrictions, though new sanctions rules running through 2027 suggest that outcome is unlikely.
Why
01
AI pressure: AI-native EDR bundled into Microsoft Defender/Copilot and rivals like CrowdStrike, SentinelOne. Free AI-driven detection baked into Windows and cloud suites erodes demand for standalone antivirus in Kaspersky's remaining Western pockets. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: US Commerce Department Entity List and OFAC sanctions, plus EU/NATO country bans. US ban cut Western update-server connections roughly 64%; UK, Netherlands, Lithuania and Germany already restrict it, EU-wide action could follow. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. Deep malware research and OT security expertise plus fast growth in Middle East, Africa and Asia markets not covered by Western bans.
What would change this call
EU Council or a major NATO state (e.g. Germany BSI) issues a Kaspersky-specific ban. would show the sanctions cascade spreading beyond the US/UK/Netherlands/Lithuania into core EU markets.
Kaspersky's 2026 results show Kaspersky Next growth staying above 100% YoY. would show B2B/EDR demand holding up despite geopolitical restrictions.
Kaspersky reports negative overall revenue growth in its FY2026 results (due ~March 2027). would show sanctions and bans are outweighing gains in Middle East/Africa/Asia markets.
Kaspersky's 2026 results show Kaspersky Next growth staying above 100% YoY. would show B2B/EDR demand holding up despite geopolitical restrictions.
Kaspersky reports negative overall revenue growth in its FY2026 results (due ~March 2027). would show sanctions and bans are outweighing gains in Middle East/Africa/Asia markets.
Key numbers
- 2025 revenue $836M, up 4% YoY
- Kaspersky Next EDR/XDR grew 158% YoY
- Western server connections fell ~64% post-US ban
Named risks
- US Entity List ban and OFAC sanctions on executives cutting off the US market since 2024.
- Cascading country bans (UK, Netherlands, Lithuania, Germany BSI) with EU-wide ban possible.
- ~64% collapse in Western organizations connecting to Kaspersky servers post-2024 ban.
- Majority Russia-based workforce (~69%) exposes company to geopolitical and travel restrictions.
- Commoditization of basic AV/EDR by Microsoft Defender and AI-native XDR rivals.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| CrowdStrike | losing to | AI-native XDR platforms outpacing Kaspersky in enterprise segment as of 2026 |
| Microsoft Defender | losing to | OS-level Defender commoditizing basic AV, pressuring Kaspersky consumer tier through 2026 |
| ESET, Bitdefender, Norton | contesting | Cited as top Kaspersky alternatives by review sites, September 2025 |
| US and EU regulators (non-competitor predator) | losing to | Entity List ban 2024, cascading UK/Netherlands/Lithuania/Germany BSI restrictions |
Questions people ask
- Is Kaspersky banned in the United States?
- Yes. In 2024 the US Commerce Department placed AO Kaspersky Lab, OOO Kaspersky Group, and Kaspersky Labs Limited on the Entity List, barring US sales, and OFAC sanctioned senior executives including COO Andrei Tikhonov. US retail customers were migrated to the UltraAV brand after the ban.
- Is Kaspersky profitable in 2025?
- Kaspersky reports (vendor-claimed) global revenue of $836 million for 2025, up 4% year over year, following $822 million in 2024 (+11%) as of April 2025. It remains privately held and self-financed, with no external investor reporting to contradict profitability claims as of March 2026.
- Who owns Kaspersky?
- Kaspersky is a privately held Russian company founded in 1997 by Eugene Kaspersky, Natalya Kaspersky, and Alexey De-Monderik. Eugene Kaspersky has served as co-founder and CEO since 2007. It historically ran a UK holding company that closed in 2024 amid sanctions pressure.
- Could AI replace Kaspersky's cybersecurity products?
- Basic AV scanning and Tier-1 SOC triage are commoditizing as Microsoft Defender and AI-native XDR rivals like CrowdStrike automate detection. But Kaspersky's decades of proprietary threat telemetry, including GReAT's discovery of Stuxnet and its June 2026 StrikeShaker disclosure, feed AI tools rather than being replaced by them.
- Who is Kaspersky's biggest competitor?
- In enterprise endpoint and XDR, CrowdStrike and Microsoft Defender for Endpoint pressure Kaspersky through AI-native, machine-speed detection as of 2026. In consumer AV, ESET, Bitdefender, and Norton (Gen Digital) are the closest direct alternatives cited by security review sites in September 2025.
- Will the EU ban Kaspersky like the US did?
- Not yet as of June 2026. Kaspersky registered with Germany's BSI under the EU's NIS2 Directive as a 'very important entity' covering the whole EU on June 30, 2026, while the EU Council separately extended its cyber-attack sanctions regime to May 2027, keeping political pressure active without a Kaspersky-specific EU-wide ban confirmed yet.
Timeline
- 2026-06-30Kaspersky registers with Germany's BSI under EU NIS2 Directive as very important entity
- 2026-06-25GReAT discloses StrikeShaker malware campaign; reports 5x surge in AI-disguised SMB malware
- 2026-05-11EU Council extends cyber-attack sanctions listings regime until May 2027
- 2026-03-30Kaspersky reports 2025 revenue of $836 million, up 4% YoY, Next line up 158%
- 2025-09-10Kaspersky launches Next XDR Optimum and Next MXDR Optimum for SMBs
- 2025-04-09Kaspersky reports 2024 record revenue of $822 million, up 11% YoY
- 2024-12-18Bitsight reports ~64% drop in orgs connecting to Kaspersky update servers post-US ban
- 2024US Commerce Dept adds Kaspersky entities to Entity List; OFAC sanctions executives
- 1997Kaspersky founded in Moscow by Eugene Kaspersky, Natalya Kaspersky, Alexey De-Monderik
Revision history
21 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Kaspersky reports 2025 financial results, driving revenue to $836 mln (2026-03-30)
- Kaspersky reports 2024 financial results with record revenue (2025-04-09)
- US To Ban Kaspersky Sales (2024)
- Kaspersky reports 2025 financial results (2026-04-08)
- Commerce Department Prohibits Russian Kaspersky Software (2024)
- The Aftermath of the Kaspersky Ban (2024-12-18)
- Kaspersky's Sustainability Report 2024, 2025 (2026-06-26)
- Kaspersky Lab Number of Employees 2026 (2026-06-29)
- Treasury Sanctions Kaspersky Lab Leadership (2024)
- Introducing Kaspersky Next XDR Optimum (2025-09-10)
- Press Releases & News (2026-03-03)
- Kaspersky registers with Germany's BSI under NIS 2 Directive (2026-06-30)