Lincoln National
Lincoln National sells life insurance, annuities, and retirement plans to about 17 million people.
On the record
Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings report, testing outflow guidance and the seven-quarter adjusted income growth streak
The call
Lincoln National is locked inside a regulated club that keeps tech and AI out, but its retirement business is bleeding clients to rival insurers faster than its turnaround can offset it.
Lincoln National is an insurance company that sells life insurance, annuities, and retirement plans to individuals and employers. It is hard for new competitors to enter this business because the government requires strict licenses and rules before you can insure people's lives, and AI cannot replace that requirement. However, Lincoln faces real problems: its profits fell sharply in the past year, customers are moving money out of its retirement plans faster than expected, the stock price is weak, and regulators are investigating the company. One key thing that could change everything is whether Bain Capital, the investment firm now helping run parts of the company, can actually turn around the business. If the next earnings report in late July 2026 shows that customer outflows slow down and the company's adjusted profits keep growing, that would suggest the turnaround might work. If outflows stay high or profits stumble, it means the company's problems run deeper than management can fix.
Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. No AI product underwrites mortality risk or holds an insurance license, so AI is a back-office tool here, not a hunter yet. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: MetLife, Prudential Financial, Corebridge Financial, Jackson Financial. Retirement Plan Services clients are terminating plans and leaving, with $2 to 2.5 billion in guided outflows for Q2 2026 alone. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. State insurance licenses and capital rules keep outsiders out, but the same rules protect five other big insurers just as well.
What would change this call
Q2 2026 earnings (July 30, 2026) report actual Retirement Plan Services net outflows. Shows if plan-sponsor defections are worsening or stabilizing versus the $2-2.5B guidance.
Shamis & Gentile and Rigrodsky Law securities investigations announced April 2026 reach a filed lawsuit or settlement. Shows whether disclosure concerns escalate into material litigation and damages.
Adjusted operating income YoY growth streak (seven quarters as of Q1 2026) continues or breaks in coming quarters. Shows whether the Bain Capital turnaround is offsetting outflow and margin pressure.
Shamis & Gentile and Rigrodsky Law securities investigations announced April 2026 reach a filed lawsuit or settlement. Shows whether disclosure concerns escalate into material litigation and damages.
Adjusted operating income YoY growth streak (seven quarters as of Q1 2026) continues or breaks in coming quarters. Shows whether the Bain Capital turnaround is offsetting outflow and margin pressure.
Key numbers
- FY2025 net income down 64% to $1.18B
- Q2 2026 guided outflows: $2 to 2.5 billion
- Market cap about $8.0B, below Bain's $44/share entry
Named risks
- Q2 2026 Retirement Plan Services outflows guided at $2-2.5B could overshoot, signaling accelerating attrition.
- FY2025 net income fell ~64% YoY, exposing GAAP earnings volatility tied to interest-rate sensitivity.
- Active securities investigations opened April 2026 over disclosure and internal-control allegations.
- Subscale mid-tier position versus larger peers like MetLife and Prudential limits pricing and scale advantages.
- Heavy reliance on Bain Capital private-credit partnership for spread income growth introduces execution dependency.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| MetLife | contesting | Named peer in retirement/life scale comparison as of April 2026 |
| Prudential Financial | contesting | Direct annuity/life peer cited in June 2026 competitor analyses |
| Corebridge Financial | contesting | AIG spinoff competing directly in retirement/annuity space, 2026 comparisons |
| Athene | gaining on | Cited as actively pressuring annuity spreads industrywide as of June 2026 |
| Jackson Financial | gaining on | Named alongside Athene and Global Atlantic pressuring annuity margins, 2026 |
| Global Atlantic | gaining on | Cited competitor squeezing spread income in annuity market, June 2026 |
Questions people ask
- Is Lincoln National profitable in 2026?
- Yes but shrinking: FY2025 net income was about $1.18 billion, down roughly 64% from FY2024's $3.28 billion, per WSJ data as of March 26, 2026. Revenue also fell about 1% YoY to $18.2-18.27 billion.
- Who owns Lincoln National?
- Lincoln National (NYSE: LNC) is publicly traded. Bain Capital bought a 9.9% equity stake for $825 million at $44.00 per share, closing June 5, 2025, alongside a 10-year private-credit asset partnership.
- Who is Lincoln National's biggest competitor?
- Lincoln competes with MetLife, Prudential Financial, Corebridge Financial, Jackson Financial, Equitable Holdings, and Principal, with Athene, Jackson, and Global Atlantic specifically pressuring its annuity spread business as of mid-2026.
- Could AI replace Lincoln National?
- No. Insurance licensing and statutory capital requirements block AI-native entrants from underwriting mortality risk. Lincoln itself uses AI tools like EvolutionIQ for claims triage and named its first Chief AI, Data and Analytics Officer, effective January 9, 2026.
- Is Lincoln National having layoffs?
- No mass layoffs are confirmed; the headcount drop from ~11,000 (2022) to ~9,400-9,700 (July 2026) is mainly attributed to divesting the Lincoln Financial Advisors wealth unit to Osaic, completed May 2024.
- How is Lincoln National's stock doing versus Bain Capital's investment?
- As of July 20, 2026, Lincoln National's market cap is roughly $8.0 billion, with the stock trading below the $44.00 per share price Bain Capital paid when it took its 9.9% stake in June 2025.
Timeline
- 2026-07-30Lincoln National scheduled to report Q2 2026 earnings before market open
- 2026-06-30Company announces Q2 2026 reporting date; discloses 17M customers, $349B Dec 2025 account balances
- 2026-06-09Analysis flags ~$2.76/share GAAP-vs-adjusted operating income gap tied to rate sensitivity
- 2026-05-282026 Annual Meeting held; shareholder proposal on stock performance and outflows voted down by board recommendation
- 2026-04-12Plaintiff firms Shamis & Gentile and Rigrodsky Law announce securities investigations into disclosures
- 2026-01-09Nilanjan (Neel) Adhya begins as Lincoln's first Chief AI, Data and Analytics Officer
- 2025-12-05Lincoln Financial names ex-BlackRock exec as first Chief AI Officer, reporting to CEO Ellen Cooper
- 2025-06-05Bain Capital closes $825M, 9.9% equity stake at $44.00/share
- 2025-04-08Lincoln Financial and Bain Capital announce 10-year strategic asset-management partnership
- 2024-05Sale of Lincoln Financial Advisors (~1,450 advisors, ~$108B AUM) to Osaic completed
Revision history
20 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Lincoln National Revenue 2012-2026 (2026-03-30)
- WSJ Annual Income Statement (2026-03-26)
- Lincoln National Earnings Date and Reports 2026 (2026-07-14)
- Lincoln Financial and Bain Capital Announce Closing... (2025-06-05)
- Lincoln Financial and Bain Capital Announce Long-Term Strategic Partnership (2025-04-08)
- MSN
- Lincoln Financial to Report 2026 Second Quarter Results on July 30 (2026-06-30)
- Lincoln National Corp Company Profile (2026-07-09)
- Lincoln Financial Group Life Insurance Review 2026 (2026-02-21)
- Artificial Intelligence at Lincoln Financial Group (2026-07-09)
- Lincoln Financial names first chief AI officer (2025-12-05)
- Lincoln Financial Group news: market updates for US advisers (2025-10-05)