Is Longfor Group profitable in 2026?

Longfor posted FY2025 net profit of RMB1.02 billion but Goldman Sachs forecasts a full-year 2026 net loss of about RMB2.4 billion as of July 20, 2026, after contracted sales fell roughly 53% year on year in H1 2026.

Why did Longfor Group's credit rating get cut?

Fitch downgraded Longfor to BB-, junk status, on June 26, 2025, citing continued sales decline, with Longfor's residential sales down 31% year on year versus stronger state-owned rivals in the same period.

Who is Longfor Group's biggest competitor?

Goldman Sachs cites China Resources Land and Seazen as direct comparators; on the residential side Longfor competes with China Vanke, Poly, and China Overseas Land and Investment, all state-owned developers with cheaper financing as of 2026.

Is Longfor Group's property development business losing money?

Yes, per Longfor's own March 28, 2026 results briefing, the traditional development business turned loss-making in FY2025 while the operations-and-services segment supplied about 80% of core profit.

Could AI replace Longfor Group's business?

No, Longfor's core revenue comes from physical land, malls, and residential inventory; AI is only used internally for property-management tasks like maintenance dispatch and incident detection at its Suzhou smart-city project, per company reporting dated September 21, 2025.

Is it safe to invest in or work for Longfor Group right now?

Risk is elevated: Goldman Sachs cut its target price to HK$7.50 on July 20, 2026, contracted sales fell 53% year on year in H1 2026, and the company faces RMB6 billion in bond maturities in 2026 and RMB6.9 billion in 2027.

Real estate developers · China

Longfor Group

longfor.com ↗

Chinese developer building malls, homes, and running property services across China.

Losing its protection

Assessed 25 July 2026 · Evidence as of 25 July 2026

The structural protection is eroding.

On the recordSince 25 July 2026 · Checkable from around Aug 20, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: H1 2026 interim results release

The call

Longfor's malls and property services keep the lights on while its home-selling business shrinks and state-backed rivals build on cheaper money.

Longfor builds and sells homes in China, but also owns about 99 shopping malls and manages property services for 3.25 million households, which now make up 80% of its profits. The home-building business is losing money and sales dropped 53% in the first half of 2026, while its debt was downgraded to junk status. Longfor faces a real problem: state-owned competitors like China Resources Land and Poly get cheaper loans and better access to land, giving them an advantage Longfor cannot easily match. The company's survival depends on whether it can shift away from home-building toward malls and services fast enough, pay off bonds coming due in 2026 and 2027, and prove sales are turning around before it runs out of cash or needs a rescue.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI tools may speed up property management or leasing, but nothing here threatens Longfor's core business. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: State-owned developers: China Resources Land, Poly, COLI, China Vanke, China Jinmao. Cheaper funding and land access let SOE rivals keep building while Longfor's contracted sales fell 53% YoY in H1 2026. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.

What protects it. Malls and property services, not homebuilding, now generate about 80% of core profit and keep cash flowing.

What would change this call

Longfor's H1 2026 interim results release around Aug 20, 2026. Shows whether the RMB2.4bn loss forecast and sales collapse are confirmed or worsened.
Whether Longfor clears its RMB6-6.9bn 2026-27 bond maturities without further Fitch downgrade. Shows whether refinancing capacity is holding or credit risk is escalating toward CCC.
Contracted sales trend in H2 2026 versus the ~53% YoY H1 decline. Shows whether the development business is stabilizing or continuing to lose ground to state-owned rivals.

Key numbers

FY2025 revenue RMB97.31bn, down from RMB127.47bn (2026-03-27)
H1 2026 contracted sales down ~53% YoY to RMB16.55-17bn (2026-07-20)
~99 malls operating with 7,400+ partner brands (n.d.)

Named risks

Contracted sales fell about 53% YoY in H1 2026, threatening liquidity and revenue base. Severity: high
Bond maturities of RMB6 billion in 2026 and RMB6.9 billion in 2027 amid junk credit rating. Severity: high
Core property development business loss-making, dependent on operations segment for profit. Severity: high
SOE competitors have cheaper financing and land access, structurally disadvantaging Longfor. Severity: medium
Further Fitch downgrade toward CCC possible if sales weakness persists. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
China Resources Land	losing to	Goldman Sachs cites CR Land as stronger direct comparator in malls as of Jul 2026
China Vanke	losing to	SOE peer with cheaper financing outperforming on sales per Fitch, Jun 2025
Poly Developments	losing to	State-owned rival with stronger land acquisition noted by Fitch, Jun 2025
China Overseas Land and Investment	losing to	SOE rival benefiting from cheaper state financing amid Longfor's 31% sales drop, Jun 2025
China Jinmao	losing to	Named SOE competitor with land-access advantage over Longfor as of 2025 reporting
Seazen	contesting	Cited alongside Longfor as comparator in commercial property by Goldman Sachs, Jul 2026

Questions people ask

Is Longfor Group profitable in 2026?: Longfor posted FY2025 net profit of RMB1.02 billion but Goldman Sachs forecasts a full-year 2026 net loss of about RMB2.4 billion as of July 20, 2026, after contracted sales fell roughly 53% year on year in H1 2026.
Why did Longfor Group's credit rating get cut?: Fitch downgraded Longfor to BB-, junk status, on June 26, 2025, citing continued sales decline, with Longfor's residential sales down 31% year on year versus stronger state-owned rivals in the same period.
Who is Longfor Group's biggest competitor?: Goldman Sachs cites China Resources Land and Seazen as direct comparators; on the residential side Longfor competes with China Vanke, Poly, and China Overseas Land and Investment, all state-owned developers with cheaper financing as of 2026.
Is Longfor Group's property development business losing money?: Yes, per Longfor's own March 28, 2026 results briefing, the traditional development business turned loss-making in FY2025 while the operations-and-services segment supplied about 80% of core profit.
Could AI replace Longfor Group's business?: No, Longfor's core revenue comes from physical land, malls, and residential inventory; AI is only used internally for property-management tasks like maintenance dispatch and incident detection at its Suzhou smart-city project, per company reporting dated September 21, 2025.
Is it safe to invest in or work for Longfor Group right now?: Risk is elevated: Goldman Sachs cut its target price to HK$7.50 on July 20, 2026, contracted sales fell 53% year on year in H1 2026, and the company faces RMB6 billion in bond maturities in 2026 and RMB6.9 billion in 2027.

Timeline

2026-07-20Goldman Sachs cuts target price to HK$7.50, forecasts RMB2.4bn 2026 net loss
2026-07-13HKEX filing shows H1 2026 operating statistics amid sales slump
2026-06-29Headcount estimated at 29,312 to 29,738 employees
2026-03-30Notification letter issued regarding scrip dividend option
2026-03-28Longfor reports operations and services supplied 80% of FY2025 core profit
2026-03-27Longfor announces FY2025 annual results, revenue RMB97.31 billion
2026-03-26Company reports RMB22 billion debt repaid in 2025, targets bond clearance by end-2026
2025-06-26Fitch downgrades Longfor to BB- amid continued sales decline

Head to head

Longfor Group vs Sunac China Holdings

Revision history

25 July 2026

First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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