Is M-Pesa profitable in 2026?

Yes. Safaricom's M-Pesa Kenya revenue hit KSh182.74 billion for FY2026 (ended March 31, 2026), up 13.4% YoY and 42% of Safaricom Group revenue. The M-Pesa Africa joint venture also posted its first-ever operating profit, KSh102.5 million, versus a KSh2.47bn loss the prior year (reported July 19-20, 2026).

M-Pesa is not independently owned; it is a brand operated jointly by Safaricom PLC (Kenya) and Vodacom Group (South Africa) through the 50/50 M-Pesa Africa joint venture, per Business Daily Africa, July 19, 2026. Safaricom separately bought the M-Pesa Holding trust entity from Vodafone for $1 in 2023.

Could AI replace M-Pesa?

Unlikely. M-Pesa's moat is a licensed trust structure, a 25-year Kenyan operating license secured May 18, 2026, and a physical agent network of 160,000+ agents, not an algorithm. AI mainly touches ancillary layers like fraud detection and support, per the July 2026 evidence brief on M-Pesa's infrastructure.

Is Airtel Money beating M-Pesa in Kenya?

Not yet. As of July 13, 2026, Airtel Money held roughly 10.3% of Kenya's mobile-money market versus M-Pesa's 89.7%, up from about 3% in 2022. In July 2026 Airtel Money also raised its cross-network tariffs to match M-Pesa's, signaling the price-war gap is closing rather than widening.

What is M-Pesa's biggest competitor?

In Kenya, Airtel Money is the closest rival at roughly 10.3% share (July 13, 2026) against M-Pesa's dominant position. Regionally, MTN Mobile Money generates about $1.8 billion in vendor-claimed group revenue (+34% YoY) across Nigeria, Uganda and Ghana, per Mordor Intelligence, March 15, 2026.

How big is M-Pesa's user base?

M-Pesa hit 40 million monthly active customers in Kenya, announced March 6, 2026, and M-Pesa Africa serves more than 60 million active customers across Africa as of July 20, 2026, according to streamlinefeed.co.ke.

Payments companies · subsidiary of Safaricom PLC (50% joint venture with Vodacom Group via M-Pesa Africa Limited) · Kenya

M-Pesa

safaricom.co.ke ↗

Mobile money network run by Safaricom and Vodacom across Kenya and Africa.

Hard to displace

Assessed 21 July 2026 · Evidence as of 21 July 2026

Strong structural protection; the business model survives ai pressure.

On the recordSince 21 July 2026 · Checkable from late 2026 into January 2027 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Court of Appeal ruling on Beluga royalty case and Airtel Kenya license renewal

The call

M-Pesa still owns Kenyan mobile money by a wide margin, with Airtel Money, court cases, and executive turnover as the main things to watch.

M-Pesa lets people in Kenya send money, pay bills, and access loans through their phones instead of going to a bank. It is hard to copy because it has a government license good until 2026, 160,000 local agents who handle cash, and is built into how the government pays workers and how stores do business. Airtel Money has tried to compete but only captures about one tenth of M-Pesa's customers. The one thing that could matter most is whether the three senior executives who left between March and August 2026 get replaced with people who keep the business running smoothly, and whether Airtel Money gains ground after its pricing got closer to M-Pesa's in July 2026.

Why

AI pressure: AI-driven fraud and deepfake scams targeting agents and users. AI raises fraud attempts against agents and customers, adding cost pressure rather than replacing the platform. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Airtel Money. Airtel Money grew from 3% to over 10% of Kenyan mobile money since 2022 and just matched M-Pesa's transfer tariffs. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. A 25 year Kenyan license, 160,000+ agents, and deep lock-in across government, payroll, and merchant payments.

What would change this call

Airtel Money's Kenyan market share figure in reports after its July 2026 tariff hike. Shows whether Airtel is still gaining share once prices are no longer cheaper than M-Pesa.
Outcome of the Vodacom stake court case and any resulting Safaricom board or strategy changes. Would show whether ownership uncertainty is disrupting M-Pesa's management focus.
Public confirmation of successors to Lopokoiyit, Waititu, and Mutiga by Q4 2026. Would show whether executive departures are causing visible leadership or strategy gaps.

Key numbers

KSh182.7B Kenya revenue, up 13.4% YoY (2026-03-31)
89.7% M-Pesa share vs Airtel's 10.3% (2026-07-13)
25-year Kenya operating license granted (2026-05-18)

Named risks

Vodacom-Safaricom ownership stake sale contested in Kenyan courts, could reset governance. Severity: medium
Beluga Ltd court ruling imposes perpetual 0.5% gross-revenue royalty, appeal pending. Severity: medium
Three senior executive departures (Lopokoiyit, Waititu, Mutiga) within five months of 2026. Severity: medium
Airtel Money's rising Kenyan share and tariff matching could erode M-Pesa's price advantage. Severity: low
Regulatory push (CBK/CA) for lower transaction costs and interoperability could compress fee take-rate. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Airtel Money	gaining on	Kenyan share rose from ~3% (2022) to 10.3% (Jul 13, 2026); tariff-matched M-Pesa Jul 21, 2026
MTN Mobile Money	contesting	Separate regional footprint (Nigeria, Uganda, Ghana), $1.8B vendor-claimed revenue, +34% YoY, Mar 15, 2026
Telebirr (Ethiotelecom)	contesting	Scaled to 35M users, $4.2B transaction value in 18 months; now interoperates via Kenya-Ethiopia corridor, Nov 2025
Fintech disruptors (Moniepoint, OPay, PalmPay)	contesting	Outcompete telco mobile-money in Nigeria; pattern not yet replicated in Kenya as of Jul 2026

Questions people ask

Is M-Pesa profitable in 2026?: Yes. Safaricom's M-Pesa Kenya revenue hit KSh182.74 billion for FY2026 (ended March 31, 2026), up 13.4% YoY and 42% of Safaricom Group revenue. The M-Pesa Africa joint venture also posted its first-ever operating profit, KSh102.5 million, versus a KSh2.47bn loss the prior year (reported July 19-20, 2026).
Who owns M-Pesa?: M-Pesa is not independently owned; it is a brand operated jointly by Safaricom PLC (Kenya) and Vodacom Group (South Africa) through the 50/50 M-Pesa Africa joint venture, per Business Daily Africa, July 19, 2026. Safaricom separately bought the M-Pesa Holding trust entity from Vodafone for $1 in 2023.
Could AI replace M-Pesa?: Unlikely. M-Pesa's moat is a licensed trust structure, a 25-year Kenyan operating license secured May 18, 2026, and a physical agent network of 160,000+ agents, not an algorithm. AI mainly touches ancillary layers like fraud detection and support, per the July 2026 evidence brief on M-Pesa's infrastructure.
Is Airtel Money beating M-Pesa in Kenya?: Not yet. As of July 13, 2026, Airtel Money held roughly 10.3% of Kenya's mobile-money market versus M-Pesa's 89.7%, up from about 3% in 2022. In July 2026 Airtel Money also raised its cross-network tariffs to match M-Pesa's, signaling the price-war gap is closing rather than widening.
What is M-Pesa's biggest competitor?: In Kenya, Airtel Money is the closest rival at roughly 10.3% share (July 13, 2026) against M-Pesa's dominant position. Regionally, MTN Mobile Money generates about $1.8 billion in vendor-claimed group revenue (+34% YoY) across Nigeria, Uganda and Ghana, per Mordor Intelligence, March 15, 2026.
How big is M-Pesa's user base?: M-Pesa hit 40 million monthly active customers in Kenya, announced March 6, 2026, and M-Pesa Africa serves more than 60 million active customers across Africa as of July 20, 2026, according to streamlinefeed.co.ke.

Timeline

2026-08-01Chief Strategy Officer Michael Mutiga departs Safaricom for Stanbic Bank
2026-07-31CFSO Esther Waititu departs Safaricom after leading M-Pesa product expansion
2026-07-21Airtel Money quietly raises cross-network transfer tariffs to match M-Pesa
2026-07-20M-Pesa Africa JV reports first-ever operating profit, KSh102.5 million for FY2026
2026-07-13Report puts Airtel Money at 10.3% Kenyan share versus M-Pesa's 89.7%
2026-05-18Kenya grants Safaricom a new 25-year operating license
2026-05-08Kenyan High Court orders Safaricom to pay Beluga Ltd damages plus 0.5% royalty
2026-03-06M-Pesa hits 40 million monthly active customers in Kenya
2026-03-01M-Pesa Africa MD Sitoyo Lopokoiyit steps down to join Absa Group
2025-12-01Vodacom agrees ~$2.1B deal for 20% aggregate Safaricom stake, subject to court process

Revision history

21 July 2026

First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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