Is Moody's profitable in 2026?

Yes. Moody's posted Q1 2026 revenue of $2.08 billion (+8.1% YoY) with EPS of $4.33 beating estimates, and management guided FY2026 EPS of $16.40 to $17.00, following FY2025 revenue of $7.72 billion, up 8.9% YoY, as of March 30, 2026.

Could AI replace Moody's credit ratings business?

Unlikely in the near term. Moody's core ratings franchise is protected by NRSRO regulatory status required under Basel III and insurance capital rules, a designation no AI model or hyperscaler can substitute for without a change in law. Moody's is instead embedding itself inside Claude and Copilot via MCP integrations as of mid 2026.

Who is Moody's biggest competitor?

S&P Global is Moody's closest rival, forming a ratings duopoly, though S&P is now larger overall with about $15.3 billion in trailing twelve month revenue versus Moody's roughly $7.7 billion, per an April 30, 2026 comparison, partly due to S&P's 2022 IHS Markit acquisition.

Is Moody's laying off employees?

No major layoffs reported. Company-reported headcount was 16,076 employees as of December 31, 2025, up 1.5% year over year from 15,838 in 2024, though a third-party tracker (Crustdata) cited slower growth of 0.9% YoY to about 15,242 as of June 2026.

Who owns Moody's Corporation?

Moody's is a publicly traded company on NYSE under ticker MCO, with no controlling private owner or recent take-private activity identified. Its market capitalization was roughly $86 to $89 billion as of mid to late July 2026.

What market share does Moody's hold in credit ratings?

Moody's holds roughly 40% of the global credit ratings market as part of the 'Big Three' oligopoly alongside S&P Global and Fitch, with some analyses citing up to 98% share in US investment-grade corporate bonds, per a Wikipedia summary on the Big Three agencies.

Financial data and information services · United States

Moody's

moodys.com ↗

Credit rating agency that grades debt risk for governments and companies worldwide.

Hard to displace

Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026

Strong structural protection; the business model survives ai pressure.

On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from July 22, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings report

The call

Regulation, not technology, decides who can rate debt, and that rule has not changed even as AI moves into every other part of finance.

Moody's tells banks and insurance companies how risky loans and bonds are, and regulators require them to use a company like Moody's to do it. This is hard to copy because it is locked in by law, not just by being better than rivals like S&P or Fitch. The company is also working with AI labs like Claude and Microsoft to become the trusted data inside their tools, so AI helps Moody's instead of replacing it. The one thing that could change everything is if regulators decide AI systems can do ratings without needing Moody's official approval, but that fight would likely take over a decade and may never happen.

Why

AI pressure: Anthropic's Claude, Microsoft Copilot, other frontier AI assistants. AI can commoditize basic data lookup, so Moody's is wiring itself into Claude and Copilot as the verified data layer instead of getting cut out. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: None apparent. No big tech company can legally issue NRSRO-recognized credit ratings, so this is not a fight Google or Microsoft can enter directly. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. Banks and insurers are legally required to use NRSRO-recognized ratings like Moody's under Basel III and capital rules, no AI model qualifies.

What would change this call

Regulators propose accepting AI-generated risk assessments as substitutes for NRSRO ratings. Would show the core regulatory moat is weakening.
Moody's Analytics segment pricing or margins decline in quarterly reports. Would show AI is commoditizing data products faster than ratings offset losses.
Additional EU/ESMA fines or new regulatory actions against Moody's methodology. Would show rising regulatory scrutiny that could erode trust or NRSRO standing.

Key numbers

FY2025 revenue $7.72B, up 8.9% (2026-03-30)
Holds ~98% of US investment-grade ratings (2026-03-03)
Market cap roughly $86-89B (2026-07-20)

Named risks

AI and internal client tools eroding pricing power in commoditizable Analytics data products. Severity: medium
EU regulatory scrutiny and fines, e.g. Moody's Germany ESMA fine of 2.145M euros, July 2026. Severity: medium
State-level political challenges to ESG ratings methodology raising compliance costs. Severity: low
Macro shock to refinancing wave (rate moves, credit-spread widening) hurting transaction revenue. Severity: medium
Long-term legislative/regulatory dilution of NRSRO status or AI-generated ratings substitution. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
S&P Global	contesting	S&P now larger overall at ~$15.3B TTM revenue vs Moody's ~$7.7B due to 2022 IHS Markit deal, as of Apr 30, 2026
Fitch Ratings	gaining on	Moody's holds ~40% share vs Fitch's ~12-15% in the Big Three ratings oligopoly, no date given
Anthropic (Claude)	contesting	Moody's embedded its Agentic Solutions inside Claude via MCP rather than being disintermediated, announced Apr 2026
Microsoft Copilot	contesting	Moody's shipped decision-grade AI skills on Copilot Cowork using SKILL.md standard, June 17, 2026
Morningstar, MSCI, FactSet	contesting	Named as data/analytics peers competing in Analytics segment, per May 22, 2026 peer comparison

Questions people ask

Is Moody's profitable in 2026?: Yes. Moody's posted Q1 2026 revenue of $2.08 billion (+8.1% YoY) with EPS of $4.33 beating estimates, and management guided FY2026 EPS of $16.40 to $17.00, following FY2025 revenue of $7.72 billion, up 8.9% YoY, as of March 30, 2026.
Could AI replace Moody's credit ratings business?: Unlikely in the near term. Moody's core ratings franchise is protected by NRSRO regulatory status required under Basel III and insurance capital rules, a designation no AI model or hyperscaler can substitute for without a change in law. Moody's is instead embedding itself inside Claude and Copilot via MCP integrations as of mid 2026.
Who is Moody's biggest competitor?: S&P Global is Moody's closest rival, forming a ratings duopoly, though S&P is now larger overall with about $15.3 billion in trailing twelve month revenue versus Moody's roughly $7.7 billion, per an April 30, 2026 comparison, partly due to S&P's 2022 IHS Markit acquisition.
Is Moody's laying off employees?: No major layoffs reported. Company-reported headcount was 16,076 employees as of December 31, 2025, up 1.5% year over year from 15,838 in 2024, though a third-party tracker (Crustdata) cited slower growth of 0.9% YoY to about 15,242 as of June 2026.
Who owns Moody's Corporation?: Moody's is a publicly traded company on NYSE under ticker MCO, with no controlling private owner or recent take-private activity identified. Its market capitalization was roughly $86 to $89 billion as of mid to late July 2026.
What market share does Moody's hold in credit ratings?: Moody's holds roughly 40% of the global credit ratings market as part of the 'Big Three' oligopoly alongside S&P Global and Fitch, with some analyses citing up to 98% share in US investment-grade corporate bonds, per a Wikipedia summary on the Big Three agencies.

Timeline

2026-07-19Expanded Intapp partnership, integrating risk intelligence into Intapp's Celeste agentic AI platform via MCP
2026-07-02Moody's Germany fined 2.145 million euros by ESMA for regulatory reporting breaches
2026-06-17Launched decision-grade AI skills on Microsoft 365 Copilot Cowork using SKILL.md standard
2026-05-20Announced Claude Desktop and Enterprise integration of Moody's Agentic Solutions via Anthropic MCP
2026-05-05Completed divestiture of Regulatory Reporting and ALM Solutions business to Regnology
2025-08-26Announced acquisition of CAPE Analytics, AI-powered property risk intelligence firm
2025-05Downgraded US sovereign credit rating to Aa1, ending AAA continuity dating to 1917

Revision history

20 July 2026

First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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Sources

Moody's Revenue 2012-2026 (2026-03-30)
Moody's (MCO) to Post Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday (2026-07-15)
Moody's (MCO) Q2 Earnings Preview (2026-07-20)
Moody's (MCO) Earnings Date and Reports 2026 (2026-07-14)
gurufocus.com (2026-07-20)
Big Three (credit rating agencies)
Rating Agencies: The Oligopoly Model (2026-03-03)
Moody's (MCO) Number of Employees 1998-2025
Moody's Corporation - Headcount, Funding & Open Jobs (2026-07-02)
Moody's to Acquire CAPE Analytics (2025-08-26)
Regnology Completes Acquisition of Moody's Regulatory Reporting & ALM Solutions (2026-05-05)
Moody's brings credit and compliance workflows directly into Anthropic's Claude (2026-05-20)