Is Nasdaq profitable in 2026?

Yes. Nasdaq reported FY2025 net revenue of $5.2B, up 13% YoY, with a 56% non-GAAP operating margin and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $3.48 (up 24%), per its January 29, 2026 earnings release.

Could AI replace Nasdaq's compliance software business?

Unlikely soon. Nasdaq's AxiomSL and Verafin regtech tools are embedded in G-SIB compliance workflows (90% of G-SIBs use AxiomSL) with regulatory liability requirements; Nasdaq frames AI as expanding automatable compliance volume, not displacing its vendor role, per Feb 25, 2026 Investor Day.

Who is Nasdaq's biggest competitor?

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)/NYSE is Nasdaq's closest peer in exchanges and data tech; ICE posted record Q1 2026 net revenue of $3B, up 20% YoY. CME and Cboe are peers in derivatives, though currently facing separate CFTC-related disruption, not Nasdaq's core franchise.

Who owns Nasdaq, Inc.?

Nasdaq is a widely held public company (NASDAQ: NDAQ) with no controlling parent. Thoma Bravo received a large equity stake as part of its 2023 Adenza sale to Nasdaq but has since fully exited, reportedly with a $3.4B windfall by July 2024.

How dominant is Nasdaq in U.S. stock listings?

Nasdaq has been the #1 U.S. listing exchange by proceeds raised for seven consecutive years, and H1 2026 was the strongest first half in U.S. exchange history, with $129.3B raised from new listings including 7 of the year's 10 largest IPOs, per a July 1, 2026 report.

What is Nasdaq doing with AI internally?

Nasdaq built an internal secure GenAI platform with agent governance including a kill switch, announced February 25, 2026, planning to deploy hundreds of AI agents in 2026 scaling to thousands by 2027, and guided to over $100M in AI-related expense efficiencies by 2027.

Insurance companies · United States

Nasdaq

nasdaq.com ↗

Runs the largest US stock exchange plus market data, listings, and regtech software.

Hard to displace

Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026

Strong structural protection; the business model survives ai pressure.

On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from Dec 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: SEC decision on Nasdaq's 23/5 near-continuous equities trading launch

The call

Nasdaq's regulated exchange and compliance software businesses sit behind licensing walls that neither AI tools nor rival exchanges have found a way around yet.

Nasdaq owns the plumbing that lets people buy and sell stocks, plus it runs the biggest U.S. stock listing exchange. It is very hard to copy because the government gives it exclusive rights to certain data and market operations, and the rules around running a stock exchange are so strict and risky that new competitors cannot easily jump in. The one thing to watch is whether newer trading venues (like those offering prediction markets and perpetual futures) chip away at Nasdaq's newer business lines, though right now the core stock exchange business looks solid.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI mostly feeds Nasdaq's own AxiomSL and Verafin compliance tools rather than threatens its licensed exchange franchise. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: CME Group and Kalshi/Coinbase in derivatives. CME's suit over Kalshi/Coinbase perpetual futures signals a derivatives land grab that nibbles at market services, not core listings. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. SRO status, exclusive tape-data rights, and near-universal G-SIB use of AxiomSL and Verafin block easy replication.

What would change this call

SEC approval or rejection of Nasdaq's 23/5 near-continuous trading, planned Dec 6, 2026. Shows whether regulators let Nasdaq extend trading hours to counter newer venues.
Outcome of CME's lawsuit over CFTC-approved perpetual futures for Kalshi/Coinbase. Indicates whether prediction-market rivals gain lasting ground in derivatives.
Any G-SIB publicly replacing AxiomSL or Verafin with a rival regtech platform. Would signal Nasdaq's regtech lock-in weakening among top banks.

Key numbers

FY2025 net revenue $5.2B, up 13% YoY (2026-01-29)
Annualized recurring revenue $3.1B, up 10% (2026-01-29)
$129.3B raised in H1 2026 US listings (2026-07-01)

Named risks

Sector-wide CFTC regulatory shifts on perpetual futures could reshape derivatives competitive dynamics. Severity: medium
23/5 near-continuous trading launch (Dec 6, 2026) is contingent on SEC approval, execution risk. Severity: medium
AI-stock sell-off in July 2026 tied to AI capex and geopolitical oil shocks could pressure trading volumes and share price. Severity: medium
Conflicting revenue and headcount figures across GAAP, non-GAAP, and third-party sources complicate transparency. Severity: low
AI-driven automation of compliance workflows could eventually compress the manual-service premium in regtech pricing. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)	contesting	ICE posted record Q1 2026 net revenue of $3B, up 20% YoY, as of July 16, 2026
CME Group	gaining on	CME faces CFTC dispute over perpetuals and sued CFTC June 18, 2026, pressuring CME not Nasdaq core business
Kalshi/Coinbase	gaining on	CFTC approved perpetual futures for Kalshi and Coinbase, disrupting derivatives incumbents as of June 2026
Cboe Global Markets	contesting	Also affected by CFTC perpetual futures ruling impacting derivatives market share, June 2026
LSEG	contesting	Diversified exchange and fintech peer pursuing similar data/software M&A strategy per Adenza deal coverage

Questions people ask

Is Nasdaq profitable in 2026?: Yes. Nasdaq reported FY2025 net revenue of $5.2B, up 13% YoY, with a 56% non-GAAP operating margin and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $3.48 (up 24%), per its January 29, 2026 earnings release.
Could AI replace Nasdaq's compliance software business?: Unlikely soon. Nasdaq's AxiomSL and Verafin regtech tools are embedded in G-SIB compliance workflows (90% of G-SIBs use AxiomSL) with regulatory liability requirements; Nasdaq frames AI as expanding automatable compliance volume, not displacing its vendor role, per Feb 25, 2026 Investor Day.
Who is Nasdaq's biggest competitor?: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)/NYSE is Nasdaq's closest peer in exchanges and data tech; ICE posted record Q1 2026 net revenue of $3B, up 20% YoY. CME and Cboe are peers in derivatives, though currently facing separate CFTC-related disruption, not Nasdaq's core franchise.
Who owns Nasdaq, Inc.?: Nasdaq is a widely held public company (NASDAQ: NDAQ) with no controlling parent. Thoma Bravo received a large equity stake as part of its 2023 Adenza sale to Nasdaq but has since fully exited, reportedly with a $3.4B windfall by July 2024.
How dominant is Nasdaq in U.S. stock listings?: Nasdaq has been the #1 U.S. listing exchange by proceeds raised for seven consecutive years, and H1 2026 was the strongest first half in U.S. exchange history, with $129.3B raised from new listings including 7 of the year's 10 largest IPOs, per a July 1, 2026 report.
What is Nasdaq doing with AI internally?: Nasdaq built an internal secure GenAI platform with agent governance including a kill switch, announced February 25, 2026, planning to deploy hundreds of AI agents in 2026 scaling to thousands by 2027, and guided to over $100M in AI-related expense efficiencies by 2027.

Timeline

2026-07-20Launches Nasdaq Global Disruptive Technology Benchmark index covering AI and robotics
2026-07-13SK Hynix completes $26.5B ADR offering on Nasdaq
2026-07-01Reports strongest first half in U.S. exchange history, $129.3B raised in new listings
2026-06-18CME Group sues CFTC over perpetual futures approvals for Kalshi and Coinbase
2026-06-09Launches Nasdaq Economic Institute and inaugural AI research series
2026-04-23Outlines plan for 23/5 near-continuous trading and $100M AI expense efficiencies by 2027
2026-03-01Launches Nasdaq Texas dual-listing venue, with SpaceX as flagship listing
2026-02-25Investor Day unveils internal GenAI agent platform and $3B buyback plan
2026-01-29Reports FY2025 net revenue exceeding $5.2B, up 13% YoY
2023-11-01Completes $10.5-11B acquisition of Adenza from Thoma Bravo

Revision history

20 July 2026

First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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