Is Nokia profitable in 2026?

Yes. Nokia posted FY2025 net profit of about EUR 0.65 billion on EUR 19.9 billion net sales, and Q1 2026 net profit rose 54% year over year to EUR 281 million, beating analyst estimates by roughly 11%, as reported July 13, 2026.

Is Nokia doing layoffs in 2026?

Yes. Nokia is executing a cost program announced in 2023 targeting 9,000 to 14,000 job cuts by end-2026 for EUR 800m-1.2bn in savings; March 2026 reports described this as roughly 20% of its ~74,000-strong workforce, including about 17,700 roles in India.

Could AI replace Nokia's business?

No, AI capex is currently a demand tailwind, not a threat: Nokia's AI/cloud customer revenue grew from under 2% to about 6% of group sales between late 2024 and November 2025, and rose 49% year over year in Q1 2026, per Nokia's own reporting.

Who is Nokia's biggest competitor?

Ericsson is Nokia's closest direct rival in mobile radio access network equipment, alongside Huawei (barred from many allied markets) and, since the 2025 Infinera deal, Cisco, Arista Networks and Ciena in optical and IP networking, per July 2026 competitive analysis.

Did Nvidia invest in Nokia?

Yes. Nvidia invested $1 billion in Nokia in October 2025, subscribing to about 166.4 million new shares at $6.01 each for a roughly 2.9% stake, as part of a strategic AI-RAN and 6G partnership announced October 27, 2025.

Nokia is publicly listed on Nasdaq Helsinki and NYSE with no controlling parent. Largest disclosed shareholders as of mid-2026 are FMR LLC at about 9.29% (June 2026) and Finnish state fund Solidium Oy at about 5.95% (March 2026); Nvidia holds roughly 2.9%.

Manufacturing companies · Finland

Nokia Corporation

nokia.com ↗

Nokia builds carrier network gear: 5G radios, optical networking, and IP routing for telecoms.

Defensible for now

Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026

Real protection, with named pressure against it.

On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from July 23, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings report

The call

Nokia is riding AI-driven demand for network gear while cutting headcount and betting on Nvidia and Infinera to keep its optical and 5G business ahead of Ericsson.

Nokia sells equipment that phone companies and internet providers use to run their networks. The company has deep expertise from decades in the business, holds thousands of patents on 5G technology, and goes through long certification processes that competitors find hard to match quickly. Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are starting to build their own networking equipment instead of buying from suppliers like Nokia, which could slowly shrink Nokia's sales over time. The real question is whether job cuts now (cutting about 10,000 jobs by 2026) signal weakness, or just smart cost management while the company adapts to faster change in the industry.

Why

AI pressure: Hyperscalers in-housing custom networking/optical silicon (Microsoft, Google, Amazon). AI data center demand is feeding Nokia's optical and IP business now, but hyperscalers building their own silicon could cut Nokia out later. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Ericsson. Ericsson competes head to head for the same carrier contracts in 5G radio and core network gear worldwide. Could a giant copy it? Probably.

What protects it. Patent licensing income, carrier certification cycles, and a Huawei ban in the US, EU, and allied markets lock in Nokia's customer base.

What would change this call

Nokia's Q2 2026 earnings (July 23, 2026) show Network Infrastructure growth outside guided 12-20% range. Would show AI/optical demand tailwind weakening or strengthening versus current guidance.
Nvidia AI-RAN deployments expand to Tier-1 carriers beyond T-Mobile trials within 12 months. Would confirm the Nvidia partnership is converting into broad commercial revenue, not just pilot activity.
Microsoft, Google, or Amazon publicly ship custom optical or networking silicon at commercial scale. Would signal hyperscaler in-housing eroding Nokia's vendor-differentiated optical margin.

Key numbers

FY2025 net sales €19.9bn, up 3.5% YoY (2026-07-20)
AI/cloud customer sales +49% YoY in Q1 2026 (2026-07-13)
Nvidia holds ~2.9% stake after $1bn investment (2025-10-27)

Named risks

AI-RAN commercialization remains trial-stage (T-Mobile only), unproven at scale as of July 2026. Severity: medium
Workforce cuts of ~20% (up to 14,000+ roles) through 2026 create execution and morale risk, concentrated in India and legacy mobile. Severity: high
Stock volatility ($4 to $17.45 range) reflects AI-narrative premium that could reverse on weak Q2 2026 guidance. Severity: high
Hyperscaler in-housing of custom optical/networking silicon could erode Nokia's differentiated margin over time. Severity: medium
Telecom capex is historically cyclical; AI-driven infrastructure spending could slow after current boom. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Ericsson	contesting	Co-incumbent in RAN/mobile infrastructure oligopoly, both bidding for same 5G/AI-RAN contracts as of mid-2026
Huawei	gaining on	Regulatory bans in US/EU allied markets favor Nokia, but Huawei dominant elsewhere as of July 2026
Ciena	contesting	Direct optical networking rival intensified post-Infinera acquisition, Feb 2025
Cisco Systems	contesting	Competes in IP routing and data-center networking as Nokia pushes hyperscaler sales, 2026
Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon)	losing to	In-housing custom optical/networking silicon threatens vendor-differentiated margin, flagged as watch item mid-2026

Questions people ask

Is Nokia profitable in 2026?: Yes. Nokia posted FY2025 net profit of about EUR 0.65 billion on EUR 19.9 billion net sales, and Q1 2026 net profit rose 54% year over year to EUR 281 million, beating analyst estimates by roughly 11%, as reported July 13, 2026.
Is Nokia doing layoffs in 2026?: Yes. Nokia is executing a cost program announced in 2023 targeting 9,000 to 14,000 job cuts by end-2026 for EUR 800m-1.2bn in savings; March 2026 reports described this as roughly 20% of its ~74,000-strong workforce, including about 17,700 roles in India.
Could AI replace Nokia's business?: No, AI capex is currently a demand tailwind, not a threat: Nokia's AI/cloud customer revenue grew from under 2% to about 6% of group sales between late 2024 and November 2025, and rose 49% year over year in Q1 2026, per Nokia's own reporting.
Who is Nokia's biggest competitor?: Ericsson is Nokia's closest direct rival in mobile radio access network equipment, alongside Huawei (barred from many allied markets) and, since the 2025 Infinera deal, Cisco, Arista Networks and Ciena in optical and IP networking, per July 2026 competitive analysis.
Did Nvidia invest in Nokia?: Yes. Nvidia invested $1 billion in Nokia in October 2025, subscribing to about 166.4 million new shares at $6.01 each for a roughly 2.9% stake, as part of a strategic AI-RAN and 6G partnership announced October 27, 2025.
Who owns Nokia?: Nokia is publicly listed on Nasdaq Helsinki and NYSE with no controlling parent. Largest disclosed shareholders as of mid-2026 are FMR LLC at about 9.29% (June 2026) and Finnish state fund Solidium Oy at about 5.95% (March 2026); Nvidia holds roughly 2.9%.

Timeline

2026-07-23Nokia due to report Q2 2026 earnings, consensus ~$5.59bn revenue, $0.07 EPS
2026-07-13Q1 2026 net profit up 54% YoY to EUR 281m, beat estimates by ~11%
2026-04-22Nokia raises 2026 guidance: Network Infrastructure 12-14%, Optical+IP 18-20% growth
2026-03-30Reports of ~20% global workforce cut (~14,000+ roles), ~17,700 in India
2026-03-26Nokia details indium phosphide fab expansion plan, second facility due late 2026
2026-01-01Nokia reorganizes into two segments: Network Infrastructure and Mobile Infrastructure
2025-11-20Nokia reports AI/cloud revenue grew from under 2% to ~6% of group sales in a year
2025-11-19Nokia announces two-segment strategy overhaul at Capital Markets Day
2025-10-27Nvidia invests $1 billion in Nokia for ~2.9% stake, AI-RAN/6G partnership announced
2025-02-28Nokia completes $2.3 billion acquisition of Infinera

Revision history

20 July 2026

First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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