WillItSurvive
Industrial materials and energy · United States

NuScale Power

nuscalepower.com ↗

NuScale designs small modular nuclear reactors and holds the only US-approved SMR design.

Losing its protection
Assessed 25 July 2026 · Evidence as of 25 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 25 July 2026 · Checkable from around August 5, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings report and deadline for Fluor to fully exit its roughly 40% stake
The call

NuScale has the regulatory paperwork nobody else has, but Oklo and Kairos are turning paperwork into signed power contracts while NuScale's stay nonbinding.

NuScale Power designs and develops small modular reactors, which are nuclear plants much smaller than traditional ones that can be built faster and in more places. The company has a regulatory approval from the government that no other small reactor maker has yet, which should give it an advantage. However, NuScale is burning through cash, lost $664 million in 2025, and has not signed any actual contracts with customers, while rivals like Oklo and Kairos are already getting deals done with big tech companies like Meta and Google. The big question is whether NuScale can turn its agreement with Tennessee Valley Authority into a real, locked-in contract soon, and whether the company can stop losing huge amounts of money before it runs out of cash.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI data centers are the demand NuScale needs, not a threat, but hyperscalers are buying that power from rivals instead. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Oklo (Meta deal), Kairos Power (Google/TVA deal), Constellation and Vistra restarting legacy reactors. Rivals are signing binding hyperscaler power deals now while NuScale's own TVA agreement for up to 6 GW remains nonbinding. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. NuScale is the only SMR developer with full NRC Standard Design Approval, a multi-year regulatory head start rivals still lack.
What would change this call
Whether ENTRA1/TVA 6 GW agreement converts to a binding signed contract before end of 2026. Shows whether NuScale can turn its regulatory lead into real revenue.
Fluor completes its full ~40% stake exit by end of Q2 2026. Loss of longtime anchor shareholder could signal reduced confidence.
Q2 2026 earnings (around August 5, 2026) revenue figures. Indicates whether the 96% YoY revenue collapse is stabilizing or worsening.
Key numbers
  • Q1 2026 revenue fell ~96% YoY to about $0.6M (2026-07-20)
  • FY2025 net loss of $664.5M, driven by ~$500M ENTRA1 payment (2026-02-26)
  • Cash position of roughly $1.0 to $1.3B as of Q1 2026 (2026-05-07)
Named risks
  • Securities class action over ENTRA1 Energy misrepresentations and $500M milestone payment. Severity: high
  • Q1 2026 revenue collapsed 96% YoY with no confirmed new customer contracts to replace it. Severity: high
  • ENTRA1/TVA 6 GW agreement remains nonbinding with no conversion timeline confirmed. Severity: high
  • Fluor's full stake exit by end of Q2 2026 creates sustained share supply overhang. Severity: medium
  • Romania (RoPower) flagship project could slip from 2030 target to as late as 2034. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Oklogaining onSigned 1.2 GW Meta deal and $200M Microsoft/Nvidia backed program by 2026-07-24 vs NuScale's nonbinding TVA deal
Kairos Powergaining onHolds signed Google/TVA power purchase agreement while NuScale's TVA deal remains nonbinding as of 2026-05-28
Constellation Energy and Vistralosing toRestarting legacy reactors (Three Mile Island, Perry, Davis-Besse) to sell hyperscaler power now, bypassing SMR licensing, per 2026-07-22 report
GE HitachicontestingBWRX-300 design approaching NRC approval, threatening NuScale's sole-approval regulatory moat
Questions people ask
Is NuScale Power profitable in 2026?
No. NuScale posted a FY2025 net loss of $664.5 million, driven largely by a roughly $500 million milestone payment to partner ENTRA1 Energy, and Q1 2026 revenue collapsed about 96% year over year to roughly $0.6 million, per results reported February 26, 2026 and July 20, 2026.
Who owns NuScale Power?
NuScale trades publicly as NYSE: SMR. Fluor Corporation was its majority shareholder for over a decade, investing more than $600 million since 2011, but on November 6, 2025 Fluor agreed to fully monetize its remaining roughly 40% (about 126 million share) stake by the end of Q2 2026.
Has NuScale signed a binding deal with TVA or a hyperscaler?
No. The ENTRA1/Tennessee Valley Authority agreement for up to 6 GW of NuScale SMR capacity, announced November 6, 2025, remains nonbinding as of mid-2026, unlike rival Oklo's signed 1.2 GW Meta deal and Kairos Power's Google/TVA PPA.
Who is NuScale Power's biggest competitor threat?
Oklo and Kairos Power have already signed binding hyperscaler contracts (Meta's 1.2 GW plan and a Google/TVA PPA respectively), while NuScale's flagship TVA deal is still nonbinding as of mid-2026; Oklo also landed a $200 million Microsoft/Nvidia-backed program on July 24, 2026.
Could AI replace NuScale Power's business?
No. Nuclear reactor engineering, NRC licensing, and construction are physical and regulatory processes AI cannot automate. AI is instead a demand driver for NuScale, since data-center electricity needs are fueling nuclear interest, though NuScale has not announced its own AI tools, unlike rival Oklo's Nvidia/Los Alamos digital-twin work reported May 26, 2026.
What is the ENTRA1 controversy at NuScale Power?
ENTRA1 Energy is NuScale's exclusive commercialization partner. NuScale paid it a Milestone Contribution of roughly $495 to $507 million, a major driver of the $664.5 million FY2025 net loss, and this payment is now the subject of a securities class action with a lead plaintiff deadline of April 20, 2026.
Timeline
  • 2026-07-24Rival Oklo announces $200M US government backed program with Microsoft and Nvidia for AI data center reactors
  • 2026-07-23Report: NuScale stock down 29% in H1 2026, analyst warns Romania project may slip to 2034
  • 2026-07-20Q1 2026 earnings show revenue collapse to ~$0.6M, down ~96% YoY, missing estimates
  • 2026-05-07NuScale reports Q1 2026 results, cash position $1.0-1.3B
  • 2026-04-19Securities class action lead plaintiff deadline over ENTRA1 milestone payment
  • 2026-02-26FY2025 results: $31.5M revenue, $664.5M net loss driven by ENTRA1 payment
  • 2025-11-06Fluor agrees to fully exit ~40% stake by end of Q2 2026; ENTRA1/TVA nonbinding 6GW deal announced
  • 2025-10-11Fluor sells 15 million Class A shares, retains ~39% stake
  • 2025-08-07NuScale receives NRC Standard Design Approval for uprated 77 MWe NPM ahead of schedule
  • 2022NuScale goes public via SPAC merger with Spring Valley Acquisition Corp, trades as NYSE: SMR
Revision history
25 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
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