Nutanix
Makes software that runs virtual machines and apps across any server or cloud.
On the record
Checkpoint: Q4 FY2026 earnings call, guidance covers $725-745M quarterly revenue
The call
Nutanix rides the Broadcom-driven VMware exodus while hyperscalers slowly pull workloads toward public cloud over the coming years.
Nutanix makes software that lets companies run their data centers in a hybrid way, mixing on-site servers with cloud services. Right now it is benefiting because VMware (its main rival, now owned by Broadcom) raised its prices so high that customers are switching to Nutanix instead, but this wave of defections will likely slow down in a few years. The bigger question is whether companies will continue moving their applications and data off their own servers entirely to Amazon, Microsoft, and Google's cloud services, which would shrink Nutanix's addressable market, though the company's potential growth in running artificial intelligence programs locally could partially offset that trend.
Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. On-prem AI inference workloads currently feed Nutanix demand rather than replace its infrastructure layer. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: AWS, Azure, Google Cloud. Gartner projects 35% of VMware workloads shift to hyperscalers by 2028, shrinking the on-prem pool Nutanix serves. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. 3.4-year average customer contracts plus deep OEM ties with Dell and Lenovo make switching costly and slow.
What would change this call
Nutanix Q4 FY2026 earnings (late August 2026) versus its $725-745M revenue guidance. Shows whether the VMware-defection growth wave is still accelerating or slowing.
AMD's $150M equity investment and joint agentic AI platform progress toward late 2026 launch. Shows whether the AMD partnership is materializing into product and revenue, not just an announcement.
Large enterprise deals like Standard Chartered choosing Broadcom/VMware over Nutanix. Shows whether regulated, incumbency-heavy accounts still favor VMware despite licensing hikes.
AMD's $150M equity investment and joint agentic AI platform progress toward late 2026 launch. Shows whether the AMD partnership is materializing into product and revenue, not just an announcement.
Large enterprise deals like Standard Chartered choosing Broadcom/VMware over Nutanix. Shows whether regulated, incumbency-heavy accounts still favor VMware despite licensing hikes.
Key numbers
- FY25 revenue $2.54B, ARR $2.43B up 15% YoY
- Stock dropped 17.7% after Q1 FY2026 guidance miss
- AMD $150M equity investment closing expected Q2 2026
Named risks
- Securities class-action investigations tied to Nov 2025 guidance miss and 17.7% stock drop.
- Hyperscaler migration could shrink on-prem TAM for both VMware and Nutanix by 2028.
- Hardware component shortages and pricing pressure could persist into FY2027.
- Broadcom retaining large regulated enterprises (e.g., Standard Chartered) could slow displacement narrative.
- Tessell Lanham Act trademark lawsuit naming CEO Rajiv Ramaswami, filed March 2026.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| VMware (Broadcom) | gaining on | Nutanix cites VMware defectors incl. Micron, Toshiba, Tractor Supply, Moody's, US Navy, as of 2026-05-18 |
| VMware (Broadcom) | losing to | Broadcom won Standard Chartered global infrastructure deal, announced 2026-07-16 |
| Hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) | contesting | Gartner-cited projection: up to 35% of VMware workloads could move to hyperscalers by 2028 |
| Microsoft Hyper-V | contesting | Cited as leading Windows-estate alternative amid VMware licensing backlash, 2026-04-29 |
| Proxmox | contesting | Cited as leading SMB/edge alternative to VMware, 2026-04-29 |
Questions people ask
- Is Nutanix profitable in 2026?
- Yes. Nutanix reported FY2025 net income of $188 million on $2,538 million revenue (year ended July 31, 2025), and raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $2.82-2.84 billion with non-GAAP operating margin around 22.5% as of May 27, 2026.
- Who owns Nutanix, and is it publicly traded?
- Nutanix (NASDAQ: NTNX) is publicly traded, IPO'd September 30, 2016. In February 2026 AMD announced a $150 million strategic equity stake at $36.26/share, part of a $250 million multi-year agentic AI infrastructure partnership expected to close Q2 2026.
- Is Nutanix a safe company to join right now?
- Headcount is growing: roughly 7,800 employees per FY2025 filings, with third-party trackers (Crustdata) estimating about 9,860-9,901 by June 2026, up ~7% YoY, and 500+ open roles reported in 2025, suggesting active hiring rather than contraction.
- Could AI replace Nutanix's infrastructure business?
- Unlikely near-term. Nutanix positions itself as the substrate for on-prem/edge AI inference (GPT-in-a-Box, Nutanix Enterprise AI) rather than a thin AI wrapper, and partnered with AMD in February 2026 on agentic AI infrastructure, though it has not yet broken out AI-specific revenue.
- Who is Nutanix's biggest competitor?
- VMware (owned by Broadcom) remains the dominant HCI/virtualization incumbent as of 2026, but Broadcom's post-acquisition licensing hikes are driving customer defections (e.g., Micron, Toshiba, Tractor Supply, Moody's, U.S. Navy, per Nutanix) toward Nutanix and hyperscalers.
- Is Nutanix facing any lawsuits in 2026?
- Yes. Securities class-action investigations (Pomerantz, Schall, Bragar Eagel & Squire) followed a 17.7% stock drop on November 26, 2025 tied to a Q1 FY2026 guidance miss, and a separate Lanham Act trademark suit, Tessell v. Nutanix, was filed March 17, 2026 in N.D. California.
Timeline
- 2026-05-27Q3 FY2026 results: $703M revenue (+10% YoY), ARR $2.43B (+15% YoY), NRR 106%
- 2026-04-07Investor Day: board authorizes $750M increase to share buyback program
- 2026-03-17Tessell v. Nutanix trademark lawsuit filed in N.D. California
- 2026-02-25AMD announces $150M equity stake plus $250M agentic AI infrastructure partnership
- 2025-11-26NTNX stock falls 17.7% after Q1 FY2026 guidance miss and cut
- 2022-12-01HPE reportedly in talks to acquire Nutanix (~$6.5B market cap); deal did not close
- 2016-09-30Nutanix IPOs on NASDAQ, raising about $230 million
- 2009-09-23Nutanix founded by Dheeraj Pandey, Mohit Aron, and Ajeet Singh
Head to head
Revision history
22 July 2026
First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
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