Is Occidental Petroleum profitable in 2026?

Yes. Occidental reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.06, beating consensus by about 80%, with free cash flow before working capital near $1.7B, up 52% year over year, and over $3.8B in unrestricted cash as of May 5, 2026.

Who owns Occidental Petroleum?

Occidental is publicly traded on the NYSE (OXY) with no parent company; institutional investors hold about 88.7% of shares. Berkshire Hathaway is the largest shareholder, owning roughly 265 million shares (about 27-28%) as of January 8, 2026.

Could AI replace Occidental Petroleum's core business?

No. Occidental's core value is physical: Permian reserves, Middle East production-sharing agreements, and EPA Class VI sequestration permits obtained April 7, 2025. These are non-replicable assets; AI is used for reservoir optimization but hasn't displaced extraction operations.

Is Occidental Petroleum laying off workers?

Headcount fell from 13,323 in 2024 to 10,412 in 2025, a 21.85% drop, largely because the OxyChem chemicals unit (with its staff) was sold to Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7B, closing January 2, 2026, removing those employees from Occidental's count.

Who is Occidental Petroleum's biggest competitor?

In Permian shale, closest peers are ConocoPhillips, Diamondback Energy, Devon Energy, and EOG Resources; Occidental holds the top Permian position after its $12.4B CrownRock acquisition closed August 1, 2024, adding about 666 MMBOE of reserves.

Who is Occidental Petroleum's new CEO?

Richard Jackson, formerly Occidental's COO, became CEO effective June 1, 2026, succeeding Vicki Hollub, who had led the company since 2016 as the first woman to run a major U.S. oil company; Jackson also joined the board.

Manufacturing companies · United States

Occidental Petroleum

oxy.com ↗

Oil and gas producer, top operator in the Permian Basin, also runs direct air capture plants.

Hard to displace

Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026

Strong structural protection; the business model survives ai pressure.

On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from August 5, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings report

The call

Oxy's fate rides on crude prices and debt paydown under a new CEO, not on any tech company or AI product.

Occidental Petroleum pumps oil and gas from the ground, particularly in Texas, and also runs a carbon capture business that stores CO2 underground. It is hard to replace in the short term because its oil fields, underground reserves, and government permits take years to build from scratch, and no competitor or technology can steal these assets in a few years. The big risk is not that someone else will do what Occidental does, but that oil prices could drop sharply, cutting profits in half, or that the company might borrow too much money again. New CEO Richard Jackson's choices about spending and paying down debt in the next two years will show whether Occidental learned from past mistakes.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI does not drill wells or pump oil; it may help Oxy model reservoirs and cut costs, not threaten the business. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: None apparent. No single company can seize Oxy's Permian acreage, EPA sequestration permits, or Berkshire's 27% stake; the risk is oil price, not a rival. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. Physical control of Permian reserves plus government permits for CO2 storage that took years to get and can't be copied fast.

What would change this call

Occidental's principal debt level reported at next quarterly earnings versus $10B target. Shows whether deleveraging discipline under new CEO Jackson is on track or stalling.
WTI crude price trend over the next 12 months relative to $60-70/bbl. Indicates whether commodity cyclicality is compressing free cash flow and dividend capacity.
Rulings or settlements in Acosta v. Occidental and Petrolia toxic-tort cases. Reveals scale of retained OxyChem liability exposure despite the Berkshire sale.

Key numbers

~1.43M BOE/d record 2025 production (2026-07-20)
$9.7B OxyChem sale to Berkshire closed (2026-01-02)
Debt target under $10B principal near-term (2026-01-08)

Named risks

Sustained crude price below $60 WTI for 12+ months would compress free cash flow and dividend capacity. Severity: high
Retained legacy OxyChem tort liabilities via Environmental Resource Holdings, including active asbestos and toxic-tort litigation. Severity: medium
STRATOS Phase 1 'non-process issue' under review could escalate into a design failure affecting DAC economics. Severity: medium
New CEO Richard Jackson could revert to acquisition-heavy leverage instead of continuing deleveraging discipline. Severity: medium
DAC business economics 'isn't bankable' on its own per executives, relying on credit sales and subsidies. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
ConocoPhillips	contesting	Peer comparison as top Permian E&P operators, as of 2026-07
Diamondback Energy	contesting	Direct Permian Basin production rival, per 2026-07 peer analysis
Devon Energy	contesting	Named peer in Permian/shale E&P sector, 2026-07
EOG Resources	contesting	Named peer in Permian shale competition, 2026-07
Exxon Mobil	gaining on	Occidental took a 10% stake in Exxon-operated Trinidad deepwater block, ~2026-06

Questions people ask

Is Occidental Petroleum profitable in 2026?: Yes. Occidental reported Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.06, beating consensus by about 80%, with free cash flow before working capital near $1.7B, up 52% year over year, and over $3.8B in unrestricted cash as of May 5, 2026.
Who owns Occidental Petroleum?: Occidental is publicly traded on the NYSE (OXY) with no parent company; institutional investors hold about 88.7% of shares. Berkshire Hathaway is the largest shareholder, owning roughly 265 million shares (about 27-28%) as of January 8, 2026.
Could AI replace Occidental Petroleum's core business?: No. Occidental's core value is physical: Permian reserves, Middle East production-sharing agreements, and EPA Class VI sequestration permits obtained April 7, 2025. These are non-replicable assets; AI is used for reservoir optimization but hasn't displaced extraction operations.
Is Occidental Petroleum laying off workers?: Headcount fell from 13,323 in 2024 to 10,412 in 2025, a 21.85% drop, largely because the OxyChem chemicals unit (with its staff) was sold to Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7B, closing January 2, 2026, removing those employees from Occidental's count.
Who is Occidental Petroleum's biggest competitor?: In Permian shale, closest peers are ConocoPhillips, Diamondback Energy, Devon Energy, and EOG Resources; Occidental holds the top Permian position after its $12.4B CrownRock acquisition closed August 1, 2024, adding about 666 MMBOE of reserves.
Who is Occidental Petroleum's new CEO?: Richard Jackson, formerly Occidental's COO, became CEO effective June 1, 2026, succeeding Vicki Hollub, who had led the company since 2016 as the first woman to run a major U.S. oil company; Jackson also joined the board.

Timeline

2026-07-15Morgan Stanley cuts Occidental price target to $68 from $74
2026-06-01Richard Jackson becomes CEO, succeeding Vicki Hollub
2026-05-06Acosta v. Occidental toxic-tort suit removed to federal court
2026-05-05Q1 2026 results: revenue $5.11B, adjusted EPS $1.06, beats consensus
2026-01-14Pennsylvania Petrolia plant toxic-tort case survives motion to dismiss
2026-01-08Berkshire Hathaway confirmed as largest shareholder with ~27-28% stake
2026-01-02OxyChem sale to Berkshire Hathaway closes for $9.7B cash
2025-06-261PointFive signs 50,000-metric-ton carbon removal deal with JPMorganChase
2025-04-07Occidental and 1PointFive secure first-ever EPA Class VI permits for STRATOS
2024-08-01Occidental completes $12.4B CrownRock acquisition, adds ~666 MMBOE reserves

Revision history

20 July 2026

First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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