Oshkosh
Makes fire trucks, garbage trucks, military vehicles, and lift equipment for governments and contractors.
On the record
Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings call, including antitrust reserve disclosure and tariff recovery update
The call
Oshkosh's government contracts and certifications still lock out easy competition, but a price-fixing lawsuit wave and a lost defense contract are live cracks to watch.
Oshkosh builds fire trucks, garbage trucks, and military vehicles for governments and cities. It is hard to replace because it has long-term government contracts, safety certifications, and a network of dealers and repair shops that took years to build. But the company is fighting a lawsuit about price-fixing on fire trucks that could force it to pay damages or even sell off business units, faces competition from AM General for military vehicle contracts, and will owe roughly 200 million dollars more in tariffs starting in 2026. The price-fixing lawsuit decision over the next year or two is the biggest thing that will decide whether Oshkosh stays stable or runs into real trouble.
Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI shows up as a feature Oshkosh sells, like contamination detection and robotic boom lifts, not a threat that eats the business. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: AM General, Terex/Genie, REV Group, Rosenbauer. AM General already took the JLTV follow-on defense contract; Terex, REV Group and Rosenbauer are named alongside Oshkosh in fire-truck price-fixing suits. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. Government certifications, multi-year contracts, and dealer/parts networks that take years and money to copy.
What would change this call
Ruling or settlement in the consolidated fire-truck price-fixing antitrust case (Hagens Berman co-lead, appointed June 9, 2026). Would show whether pricing power in Vocational/fire segment is legally constrained.
Oshkosh Q2 2026 earnings call, July 28, 2026, on tariff recovery and margin guidance. Would show whether ~$200M tariff hit is being offset as promised.
Any further Army/Marine Corps tactical-vehicle contract awards through 2026. Would show whether AM General keeps taking defense share from Oshkosh.
Oshkosh Q2 2026 earnings call, July 28, 2026, on tariff recovery and margin guidance. Would show whether ~$200M tariff hit is being offset as promised.
Any further Army/Marine Corps tactical-vehicle contract awards through 2026. Would show whether AM General keeps taking defense share from Oshkosh.
Key numbers
- FY2025 revenue $10.42B, down 2.9% YoY
- ~$200M tariff cost hit expected in 2026
- Market cap ~$8.96B
Named risks
- Fire-truck antitrust litigation could force damages, settlements, or merger unwinding across multiple 2026 jurisdictions.
- ~$200M 2026 tariff cost concentrated in Access segment depends on unrealized H2 2026 recovery.
- Defense segment share loss to AM General's JLTV follow-on award threatens recurring tactical-vehicle revenue.
- Q1 2026 EPS miss ($0.85 vs $1.04 consensus) signals possible margin pressure heading into H2 2026.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| AM General | losing to | AM General won the JLTV follow-on award (2024-25), eroding Oshkosh's tactical vehicle dominance |
| Terex/Genie | contesting | Named alongside Oshkosh in fire-truck price-fixing suits and competes directly in access equipment through 2026 |
| REV Group | contesting | Co-defendant with Oshkosh in fire-truck antitrust litigation filed across multiple 2026 jurisdictions |
| Rosenbauer | contesting | Named in fire-truck antitrust class action with Hagens Berman as co-lead counsel, June 9, 2026 |
Questions people ask
- Is Oshkosh Corporation profitable in 2026?
- Oshkosh guides FY2026 sales near $11.0B with adjusted EPS around $11.50, but Q1 2026 (reported May 9, 2026) EPS of $0.85 missed the $1.04 consensus on $2.32B revenue, showing near-term profitability pressure despite positive full-year guidance.
- Who owns Oshkosh Corporation?
- Oshkosh Corporation trades on the NYSE under OSK with no parent company. Roughly 92.4% of shares were institutionally held as of late 2025, while insiders owned about 0.64%, per a December 17, 2025 filing report.
- Who is Oshkosh's biggest competitor?
- Oshkosh competes with Terex/Genie in access equipment, REV Group and Rosenbauer in fire apparatus, and AM General in defense tactical vehicles. AM General won the JLTV follow-on contract award in 2024-25, eroding Oshkosh's prior tactical-vehicle dominance.
- Could AI replace Oshkosh Corporation's business?
- No; AI is deployed as a product feature, not a replacement threat. At CES 2026 (January 6, 2026) Oshkosh debuted an AI-powered robotic JLG boom lift, contamination detection for refuse trucks, and the autonomous HARR-E robot, while its moat rests on manufacturing scale and government procurement relationships.
- Is Oshkosh Corporation laying off workers in 2026?
- Headcount is roughly flat: Revelio Labs counted 19,184 employees as of December 2025 (up 2.6% since 2023), but active job postings fell 42.4% in 2025, and StockAnalysis/Macrotrends put headcount at 18,400, down 0.54% year over year.
- Is it risky to invest in or join Oshkosh Corporation given the lawsuits?
- Oshkosh faces a fire-truck price-fixing antitrust litigation wave across multiple jurisdictions (LA County, Milwaukee, Providence, and others), with Hagens Berman appointed co-lead counsel in a consolidated class action on June 9, 2026, seeking damages and possible merger unwinding.
Timeline
- 2026-07-28Q2 2026 earnings scheduled, consensus $2.65 EPS on $2.81B revenue
- 2026-06-09Hagens Berman appointed co-lead counsel in fire-truck antitrust class action
- 2026-05-09Q1 2026 results: $2.32B revenue, $0.85 EPS missed $1.04 consensus
- 2026-02-12LA County files antitrust suit against fire-truck manufacturers
- 2026-01-30Management discloses ~$200M 2026 tariff cost estimate, mostly in Access segment
- 2026-01-29FY2025 full-year results reported, revenue $10.42B, down 2.87% YoY
- 2026-01-07Oshkosh announces acquisition of Canvas robotic drywall-finishing tech
- 2026-01-06CES 2026: debuts electric JLG boom lift, Striker Volterra, HARR-E autonomous robot
- 2025-08-14Firetruck pricing antitrust class action filed against Oshkosh and rivals
Revision history
20 July 2026
First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Oshkosh Revenue 2012-2026 (2026-03-30)
- Oshkosh earnings missed by $0.19, revenue topped estimates (2026-05-09)
- Oshkosh Remains Compelling As Earnings Near (2026-07-18)
- Oshkosh Number of Employees 2026 (2026-06-29)
- Oshkosh Corporation Reports 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results (2026-01-29)
- Tariffs and Mixed Segment Outlook Shape 2026 Guidance (2026-01-30)
- Oshkosh Corporation Brings Autonomy, AI, Connectivity and Electrification at CES 2026 (2026-01-06)
- Oshkosh brings autonomy, AI, connectivity (2026-01-07)
- Firetruck Pricing Antitrust Class Action (2025-08-14)
- gurufocus.com (2026-07-20)
- Oshkosh Earnings Estimates, EPS & Revenue (2026-07-19)
- What is Competitive Landscape of Oshkosh Company? (2026-04-16)