Oxford Nanopore Technologies
Maker of nanopore DNA/RNA sequencing devices, from handheld MinION to lab-scale PromethION.
On the record
Checkpoint: H2 2026 and full-year FY2026 results, testing 21-25% constant-currency growth guidance and FY2027 breakeven path
The call
The sequencing chemistry is hard to copy, but revenue growth has halved and losses persist, so the near-term story is about cash and execution, not competitors.
Oxford Nanopore builds devices that read DNA using tiny holes in nanomaterial, a approach that big competitor Illumina cannot easily copy because of how the chemistry works and the 2,600+ patents protecting it. The company sells machines and then makes money on the consumables that go into them, similar to printer ink cartridges, but the business is burning cash and only grew 10% in early 2026 after growing 24% the year before, which is a major slowdown. The one thing that matters most right now is whether the company can hit its growth targets in the second half of 2026 and beyond, because missing those numbers could force them to sell new stock to raise cash, which would badly hurt existing shareholders and make it much harder for them to reach profitability in 2027 and 2028 as they promised.
Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI here is Oxford Nanopore's own basecalling software, it sharpens their read accuracy rather than threatening the business from outside. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Illumina. Illumina still holds most of the sequencing market and could use pricing or bundled workflows to squeeze nanopore's growth, though its own PacBio deal was blocked. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. Over 2,600 patents on nanopore chemistry plus an installed device base tied to recurring consumables and clinical partners like bioMerieux and Cepheid.
What would change this call
H2 2026 and FY2026 revenue growth rate reported vs 21-25% constant-currency guidance. Shows whether the deceleration was temporary or a deeper demand problem.
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA breakeven milestone hit or missed. Tests whether the turnaround plan is credible or slipping further.
Any new equity placing or dilutive capital raise announced before FY2028. Would confirm cash burn is outpacing the £302.8M liquidity buffer.
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA breakeven milestone hit or missed. Tests whether the turnaround plan is credible or slipping further.
Any new equity placing or dilutive capital raise announced before FY2028. Would confirm cash burn is outpacing the £302.8M liquidity buffer.
Key numbers
- FY2025 revenue £223.9M, up 22% reported
- H1 2026 growth slowed to ~10% reported
- FY2025 net loss £145.2M
Named risks
- H1 2026 revenue growth halved to ~10%, missing management's own expectations.
- Persistent net losses (£145.2M FY2025) with unproven FY2027 EBITDA breakeven target.
- Weakness in China and Middle East demand undermining FY2026 21-25% growth guidance.
- New CEO Francis Van Parys (since March 2, 2026) still early in tenure, strategy risk.
- IP Group takeover by Railpen could create ONT share supply overhang if completed.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Illumina | losing to | Illumina holds ~65 to 70% overall sequencing market share vs ONT niche position, per 2019/2020 filings |
| Pacific Biosciences (PacBio) | contesting | PacBio remains closest long-read rival; basecalling accuracy narrowing quality gap per 2026 literature |
| MGI Tech | gaining on | MGI revenue fell ~16% in H1 2024 while ONT grew 22% in FY2025 |
| Quantum-Si | gaining on | Quantum-Si cut 23% of workforce amid genomics-tools funding malaise, 2025 |
| Bionano Genomics | gaining on | Bionano cut nearly 50% of workforce and lowered guidance, 2025 |
Questions people ask
- Is Oxford Nanopore Technologies profitable in 2026?
- No. Oxford Nanopore posted a net loss of £145.2 million for FY2025 (year ended December 31, 2025), with adjusted EBITDA loss of £86.7 million. Management targets adjusted EBITDA breakeven in FY2027 and cash flow positive in FY2028, both still unproven as of mid 2026.
- Why did Oxford Nanopore's share price crash in July 2026?
- On July 13, 2026 Oxford Nanopore shares fell about 20% in a single day after an H1 2026 trading update showed revenue growth decelerating to roughly 10% reported (12% constant currency), down sharply from 24.2% constant-currency growth in FY2025, driven by weakness in China and the Middle East.
- Could AI replace Oxford Nanopore's sequencing technology?
- No. Oxford Nanopore's core product is physical nanopore molecule capture, which AI cannot generate, only interpret. Its Dorado basecaller and variant-calling models are internal ML tools that improve accuracy but do not threaten the underlying wet-lab chemistry business, per company statements as of May 2026.
- Has Oxford Nanopore had layoffs?
- Yes. The company conducted two restructuring rounds in 2025, in January and November, cutting 138 employees combined at a cost of £22.6 million, as part of a strategic realignment that also ended the ElysION platform and sunset the P2 Solo device by June 2026.
- Who owns Oxford Nanopore Technologies?
- Oxford Nanopore is a public company listed on the LSE (ticker ONT) since its September 30, 2021 IPO. IP Group is a long-standing significant shareholder, and bioMérieux holds about 3.5% of voting rights after investing roughly £70 million in October 2023.
- Who is Oxford Nanopore's biggest competitor?
- Illumina is the dominant incumbent with an estimated 65 to 70%+ overall DNA sequencing market share; Illumina's attempted $1.2 billion acquisition of PacBio, Oxford Nanopore's closest long-read rival, was abandoned in January 2020 after FTC opposition.
Timeline
- 2026-07-17Railpen's revised IP Group takeover offer includes pass-through of IP Group's ONT shareholding
- 2026-07-13H1 2026 trading update shows growth slowing to ~10%, shares drop ~20% in a day
- 2026-07-01COO Tim Cowper retires, CFO Nick Keher absorbs operational responsibilities
- 2026-05-21New Chief Medical, Information and People Officers announced to support clinical growth
- 2026-05-20London Calling 2026 update details new chemistry and workflows shipping through July
- 2026-04-15Cepheid partnership expands to phase two for rapid pathogen ID workflows
- 2026-03-02FY2025 results released, founder CEO Gordon Sanghera steps down, Francis Van Parys named CEO
- 2025-11-03Second 2025 restructuring round announced as part of £22.6M combined layoff cost
- 2023-10-18bioMerieux invests ~£70 million for 3.5% voting rights tied to IVD development
- 2021-09-30Oxford Nanopore IPOs on the London Stock Exchange
Revision history
24 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Oxford Nanopore shares fall as revenue grows in 2025 (2026-03-02)
- Why is Oxford Nanopore Technologies stock plummeting 20% today? (2026-07-13)
- Oxford Nanopore 2025 Revenue Grows 22 Percent Amidst Restructuring (2026-03-04)
- gurufocus.com (2026-07-24)
- bioMérieux makes strategic investment in Oxford Nanopore (2023-10-18)
- Annual results for the year ended 31 December 2025, Company Announcement (2026-03-02)
- Oxford Nanopore flags slower 2026 growth, names new CEO; shares crash 17% (2026-03-02)
- Cepheid and Oxford Nanopore Expand Partnership Following Successful Phase One Collaboration (2026-04-15)
- London Calling 2026 Technology Update (2026-05-20)
- Oxford Nanopore strengthens executive leadership team (2026-05-21)
- Oxford Nanopore consolidates operations under CFO after COO retirement (2026-06-29)
- What is Competitive Landscape of Oxford Nanopore Technologies Company? (2026-03-20)