Pacific National
Australia's largest private rail freight hauler, moving coal, containers and bulk goods on interstate track.
On the record
Checkpoint: FY2025/FY2026 results, showing whether the coal write-down was a one-off trough or ongoing bleed
The call
Physical rail assets and contracts keep rivals out, but coal decline and repeated losses are the real pressure to watch, not AI.
Pacific National moves freight by rail across Australia and owns many of the rail yards and terminals it uses. A rival called Aurizon operates in Queensland, but Pacific National's ownership of key rail infrastructure and its long-term customer contracts make it hard to replace quickly. The company lost a lot of money recently (partly from writing down coal assets) as coal shipping declines, so the big question is whether it can succeed moving into other freight types like containers and bulk goods, or whether the coal decline will keep dragging on profits.
Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI can optimise scheduling and maintenance but nothing software-based hauls coal or containers across a continent. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Aurizon Holdings. Aurizon is the only other major interstate rail freight operator, competing for the same coal and bulk contracts as coal volumes shrink. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. Owns terminals, locomotives, wagons and long-term track access rights that a new entrant cannot quickly copy.
What would change this call
Pacific National's FY2025/FY2026 results show a profit or another net loss. Indicates whether the A$424M coal write-down was the trough or ongoing bleed.
New CEO Brett Grehan announces a major strategic move on intermodal vs coal within 12 months. Shows whether management commits to diversification or keeps defending shrinking coal volumes.
PE consortium owners pursue an IPO, sale, or refinancing of Pacific National. Would signal an ownership exit after a decade-long hold, possibly reshaping the business.
New CEO Brett Grehan announces a major strategic move on intermodal vs coal within 12 months. Shows whether management commits to diversification or keeps defending shrinking coal volumes.
PE consortium owners pursue an IPO, sale, or refinancing of Pacific National. Would signal an ownership exit after a decade-long hold, possibly reshaping the business.
Key numbers
- A$424 million NSW coal write-down
- A$59 million net loss
- ~580 locomotives, ~12,000 wagons
Named risks
- Secular decline in coal volumes driving repeated write-downs, A$424 million in FY2024.
- Leadership transition uncertainty after CEO Paul Scurrah's departure, effective 2025-11-01.
- Revenue volatility from weather events, industrial action, and grain harvest swings.
- Renewed ACCC scrutiny of terminal ownership if PN pursues further acquisitions.
- Lagging AI/technology adoption versus global rail peers like Union Pacific.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Aurizon Holdings | contesting | Effective duopoly leader alongside Aurizon; ACCC appeal over PN's terminal buy dismissed 2020-05-06 |
| Qube Holdings | contesting | Competed for Acacia Ridge Terminal assets but told ACCC it would not enter interstate linehaul, 2019 |
| Linfox | gaining on | Acquired Aurizon's Queensland intermodal pickup-and-delivery business, adjacent to PN's territory |
| Union Pacific | gaining on | Ahead on AI-driven dispatch and predictive maintenance rollout by 2024-2025, per trade press |
Questions people ask
- Is Pacific National profitable in 2025?
- Recent history is rocky: Pacific National posted a A$59 million net loss in FY2023 and took a A$424 million write-down on its NSW coal business in FY2024, per company disclosures reported by AFR on 2023-10-31 and 2024-09-16. No confirmed FY2025 profit figure has been located from a primary source.
- Who owns Pacific National?
- Since 19 August 2016, Pacific National has been owned by a private consortium (Australian Logistics Acquisition Investments Pty Ltd) comprising Global Infrastructure Partners, Canada's CPP Investment Board, China Investment Corporation, Singapore's GIC, and British Columbia Investment Management Corporation, per Wikipedia's sourced history.
- Who is Pacific National's biggest competitor?
- Aurizon Holdings Limited is Pacific National's only real peer in Australian interstate rail freight, forming an effective duopoly; the ACCC unsuccessfully challenged Pacific National's Acacia Ridge Terminal acquisition on competition grounds, with the Federal Court dismissing its appeal on 2020-05-06.
- Could AI replace Pacific National?
- No: Pacific National's moat rests on owned locomotives, terminals, track access rights, safety accreditation, and long-term haulage contracts, none of which AI substitutes for. AI mainly optimizes dispatch and maintenance edges, an area where peer Union Pacific was ahead as of 2024-2025 reporting.
- Who is the CEO of Pacific National now?
- Brett Grehan is listed as Pacific National's current CEO following Paul Scurrah's departure to become CEO of Fiji Airways, effective 1 November 2025, per AFR reporting from 2025-10-27 and company profile data.
- What is Pacific National's revenue?
- The last confirmed company-reported figure is FY2017 revenue of A$2,378 million with A$260 million net income. More recent years show losses: A$59 million net loss in FY2023 and a A$424 million coal asset write-down in FY2024, per AFR.
Timeline
- 2025-10-27CEO Paul Scurrah departs Pacific National for Fiji Airways, effective 2025-11-01
- 2025-07-08First Wabtec/UGL Evolution Series locomotive delivered under A$193.4 million, 50-unit order
- 2024-09-16Pacific National takes A$424 million write-down on NSW coal haulage business
- 2023-10-31Pacific National discloses A$59 million annual net loss and ATO tax audit
- 2020-05-06Federal Court dismisses ACCC appeal over Pacific National's Acacia Ridge Terminal buy
- 2016-08-19Infrastructure consortium completes purchase of Pacific National from Asciano
- 2007Toll Holdings restructures; Pacific National becomes subsidiary of newly listed Asciano
- 2005Toll Holdings gains full control via hostile takeover of JV partner Patrick Corporation
- 2002-02Pacific National formed as joint venture combining National Rail and FreightCorp
Head to head
Revision history
25 July 2026
First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Australia Rail Freight Transport Companies (2026-01-06)
- Pacific National Holdings Pty Ltd - Company Profile
- Pacific National takes $59m annual loss and discloses ATO audit (2023-10-31)
- Pacific National takes hefty write-down on NSW coal business (2024-09-16)
- Pacific National
- Pacific National Modern Slavery Statement
- Wabtec and UGL delivered the first Evolution locomotive for Pacific National under a $193.4 million contract (2025-07-08)
- Ex-Virgin CEO Paul Scurrah takes over Fiji Airways, eyes more US routes (2025-10-27)
- Federal Court dismisses ACCC appeal on PN Aurizon case (2020-05-06)
- ACCC case theory terminal (2019-05-29)