Is Rare Beauty profitable in 2026?

No profitability figures have been disclosed. Revenue estimates conflict sharply: Business of Fashion cited $400M+ net sales for the twelve months ending February 2024, while a Bloomberg-sourced figure put TTM net sales at just $212M through March 2025, leaving true financial health unverified.

Who owns Rare Beauty?

Selena Gomez founded and controls Rare Beauty, launched September 3, 2020. It remains privately held with no IPO or acquisition completed. Gomez said in October 2025, 'I love what we do and I do not want it to change,' signaling she is not ready to sell.

Could AI replace Rare Beauty?

AI cannot replicate Rare Beauty's core moat, Selena Gomez's personal celebrity distribution. The brand does use AI at the edges, deploying a Shopify-built 'Magic Mirror' shade-matching activation that logged over 1,500 consultations at a pop-up documented in January 2026.

Is Fenty Beauty a bigger competitor than Rare Beauty?

Fenty Beauty (Rihanna, LVMH-backed) ranked ahead of Rare Beauty in 2024 celebrity-beauty search interest, but by June 2026 LVMH was reportedly exploring selling its 50% Fenty stake amid declining sales, while Rare Beauty rolled out to 1,500+ Ulta stores in February 2026.

Did Rare Beauty sell or go public?

No. Goldman Sachs and Raymond James were hired in March 2024 to explore a sale or IPO targeting a $2 billion valuation, but by September 2024 the process stalled with no buyer meeting that price. As of July 2026 no deal has closed.

Is Rare Beauty expanding into new retail channels?

Yes. Rare Beauty launched nationwide in over 1,500 Ulta Beauty stores on February 1, 2026, its first new retail channel since 2020, reportedly breaking Ulta's first-day sales record. It also entered India via Nykaa in June 2026.

Consumer brands · United States

Rare Beauty

rarebeauty.com ↗

Selena Gomez's cosmetics line, sold through Sephora and now Ulta nationwide.

Protection under test

Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026

Something worth protecting exists and is being tested right now.

On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from Q4 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Sephora and Ulta same-store sell-through results through year end

The call

Rare Beauty has the shelf space and the famous face other celebrity brands lost, but its own sales numbers do not agree on whether it is still growing.

Rare Beauty makes makeup and sells it through Sephora and soon through Ulta stores nationwide. The brand has Selena Gomez as its owner and face, which gives it huge social media reach that big competitors like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder cannot easily copy. However, other celebrity beauty brands like Fenty and Kylie Cosmetics have already started losing sales, so the whole celebrity makeup trend may be fading. The one thing that will tell you if Rare Beauty has real staying power is whether customers keep buying it at Sephora through the end of 2026, or if sales only jump because of the new Ulta stores stuffed with inventory.

Why

AI pressure: e.l.f. Beauty's AI-driven trend-cloning R&D. e.l.f. uses AI social listening to spot and clone viral hits like Soft Pinch Blush at lower prices within months. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: L'Oreal, Estee Lauder, and e.l.f. Beauty after its Rhode acquisition. Mass beauty consolidators control shelf space and can squeeze a founder brand on price and placement as the celebrity-beauty category cools. Could a giant copy it? Probably.

What protects it. Selena Gomez's roughly 400M social reach plus new national Sephora and Ulta shelf space that took years to secure.

What would change this call

Rare Beauty's Sephora same-store sell-through data through end of 2026. Shows whether Sephora sales are growing or just being masked by the new Ulta rollout.
Whether the $400M+ or $212M TTM revenue figure gets independently confirmed. Clarifies if the brand is actually growing or has quietly shrunk by half.
Any resumed sale or IPO process and its final valuation. Tests if buyers value Rare Beauty near $2.7B or well below the failed 2024 attempt.

Key numbers

$212M TTM revenue vs earlier $400M+ claim (March 2025)
1,500+ Ulta stores added, broke first-day sales record (Feb 2026)
DTC site sales $9.9M in 2025, down 10-20% YoY (2025)

Named risks

Contradictory revenue figures ($400M+ TTM Feb 2024 vs $212M TTM March 2025) remain unresolved. Severity: high
Brand moat is tied to Selena Gomez personally; her stepping back would remove the core marketing engine. Severity: high
Celebrity beauty category peers failing or selling (Pat McGrath Chapter 11, Fenty stake sale, Kylie collapse). Severity: medium
2024 sale process failed to clear $2B asking price, raising doubts about true valuation. Severity: medium
Own-site DTC sales reportedly small and declining, leaving brand dependent on Sephora and Ulta wholesale channels. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Fenty Beauty	contesting	Ranked #1 in celebrity beauty searches 2024, but LVMH exploring 50% stake sale amid declining sales, June 2026
Rhode (e.l.f. Beauty)	gaining on	e.l.f. acquired Rhode for ~$1B in 2025, building a masstige consolidator that could pressure celebrity indies
Kylie Cosmetics	gaining on	Rival celebrity brand described as having skyrocketed then collapsed, per 2026 trade press
Pat McGrath Labs	gaining on	Filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in early 2026 amid celebrity-beauty category reckoning
L'Oreal, Estee Lauder	contesting	Legacy conglomerates dominate prestige/mass beauty and could consolidate the celebrity-brand segment via M&A

Questions people ask

Is Rare Beauty profitable in 2026?: No profitability figures have been disclosed. Revenue estimates conflict sharply: Business of Fashion cited $400M+ net sales for the twelve months ending February 2024, while a Bloomberg-sourced figure put TTM net sales at just $212M through March 2025, leaving true financial health unverified.
Who owns Rare Beauty?: Selena Gomez founded and controls Rare Beauty, launched September 3, 2020. It remains privately held with no IPO or acquisition completed. Gomez said in October 2025, 'I love what we do and I do not want it to change,' signaling she is not ready to sell.
Could AI replace Rare Beauty?: AI cannot replicate Rare Beauty's core moat, Selena Gomez's personal celebrity distribution. The brand does use AI at the edges, deploying a Shopify-built 'Magic Mirror' shade-matching activation that logged over 1,500 consultations at a pop-up documented in January 2026.
Is Fenty Beauty a bigger competitor than Rare Beauty?: Fenty Beauty (Rihanna, LVMH-backed) ranked ahead of Rare Beauty in 2024 celebrity-beauty search interest, but by June 2026 LVMH was reportedly exploring selling its 50% Fenty stake amid declining sales, while Rare Beauty rolled out to 1,500+ Ulta stores in February 2026.
Did Rare Beauty sell or go public?: No. Goldman Sachs and Raymond James were hired in March 2024 to explore a sale or IPO targeting a $2 billion valuation, but by September 2024 the process stalled with no buyer meeting that price. As of July 2026 no deal has closed.
Is Rare Beauty expanding into new retail channels?: Yes. Rare Beauty launched nationwide in over 1,500 Ulta Beauty stores on February 1, 2026, its first new retail channel since 2020, reportedly breaking Ulta's first-day sales record. It also entered India via Nykaa in June 2026.

Timeline

2026-06Rare Beauty enters India market via Nykaa
2026-04-02Launched True to Myself Natural Matte Longwear Foundation at Sephora, 48 shades, $38
2026-02-01Rolled out to 1,500+ Ulta Beauty stores nationwide, broke Ulta first-day sales record
2026-01Deployed AI-powered Magic Mirror activation with Shopify, 1,500+ consultations at pop-up
2025-11-07Crowned 2025's most popular celebrity beauty brand by search and social metrics
2025-10-01Selena Gomez says she is not ready to sell Rare Beauty
2025-08-07Launched Rare Eau de Parfum, first fragrance, exclusively at Sephora
2024-09Sale process stalled with no buyer meeting $2 billion valuation target
2024-03Goldman Sachs and Raymond James hired to explore sale or IPO at $2B target
2020-09-03Rare Beauty launched by Selena Gomez

Revision history

23 July 2026

First assessed. Protection under test. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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