WillItSurvive
Gaming companies · subsidiary of Activision (owned by Microsoft Gaming/Xbox since October 2023) · United States

Raven Software

Activision support studio inside Microsoft, co-builds Call of Duty and Warzone.

Losing its protection
Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from Oct 23, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Modern Warfare 4 launch, the next referendum on whether CoD's decline is temporary
The call

Raven survives as long as Call of Duty does, and both the franchise and the studio's QA and art jobs are under pressure at the same time.

Raven Software makes Call of Duty multiplayer content for Microsoft. The problem: Call of Duty sales have dropped 60% in a year, newer games rank worst in franchise history, and competitors like Battlefield 6 are stealing players. Raven is also vulnerable because it does a lot of quality testing and 2D art, which artificial intelligence can now do faster and cheaper, and Microsoft has already started cutting thousands of game workers. The one thing that could change everything is whether the next Modern Warfare game in late 2026 becomes a hit and brings players back, or whether it flops and proves the franchise damage is permanent.

Why
01
AI pressure: Generative AI tools for QA testing and 2D art/asset production. Activision already uses AI in CoD's biggest cost centers, QA and art, the same jobs Raven's headcount is built on. Could AI do the core job? Yes, likely.
02
Bigger players: EA Battlefield 6 and Arc Raiders. Battlefield 6 and Arc Raiders (12M copies in under 3 months) are pulling players and sales away from a CoD franchise already down sharply in 2025. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. Raven still holds real production knowledge on Warzone and CoD live ops that Microsoft has not replaced with AI or outside studios yet.
What would change this call
Modern Warfare 4 sales and chart ranking after its October 23, 2026 launch. Strong results would signal CoD's decline was temporary; weak results confirm ongoing erosion.
Any Raven Software-specific WARN notice or layoff announcement within Microsoft Gaming. Would show the studio itself, not just Microsoft Gaming broadly, is being cut.
Expansion of generative AI use at Activision into design or engine work beyond QA and 2D art. Would show AI substitution is spreading into Raven's higher-value functions.
Key numbers
  • CoD sales down over 60% YoY (disputed) (Jan 2026)
  • Black Ops 7 hit 5th place, worst since 2008 (Nov 2025)
  • Raven headcount fell from ~350 to 300+ (Apr 2026)
Named risks
  • Call of Duty franchise sales decline (Black Ops 7's franchise-worst chart rank) reduces Raven's institutional value to Microsoft. Severity: high
  • Microsoft Gaming's repeated layoff cycles (2024-2025) create precedent for future Raven-specific headcount cuts. Severity: high
  • Generative AI already substituting QA and 2D art work, Raven's largest headcount functions. Severity: medium
  • Microsoft/CWA labor-neutrality agreement expired October 2025, raising risk of union friction. Severity: medium
  • Leadership transition after co-founder Brian Raffel's April 2026 retirement leaves single studio head. Severity: low
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
EA Battlefield 6losing toOutsold Black Ops 7 to become US's best-selling game of 2025, per Jan 2026 chart data
Arc Raiderslosing toSold 12 million copies in under 3 months, drawing players from Call of Duty, Jan 2026
Questions people ask
Is Raven Software profitable?
Raven has no independent financials since it is a wholly owned Activision/Microsoft subsidiary with no separate P&L. It exists inside Microsoft Gaming, which took a 9,000+ person layoff wave in July 2025 partly hitting Xbox/Activision, per GameSpot's July 2026 report.
Who owns Raven Software?
Raven has been an Activision subsidiary since August 1997. Activision Blizzard itself was acquired by Microsoft for $68.7 billion in a deal that closed October 2023, making Raven ultimately a Microsoft-owned studio with no independent equity.
Could AI replace Raven Software's QA testers or artists?
Activision confirmed in February 2025 that generative AI is used for some in-game assets across Call of Duty titles, and a Wired-sourced report alleged concept artists were pushed to use AI after 2024 layoffs cut '2D artists.' Raven's QA union, ratified August 2025, offers some contractual friction against further cuts.
What is Raven Software's biggest competitive threat?
Raven doesn't compete directly, but the Call of Duty franchise it co-develops lost the top US sales spot to EA's Battlefield 6 in 2025, and extraction shooter Arc Raiders sold 12 million copies in under 3 months, pulling players from Call of Duty, per January 2026 reporting.
Did Call of Duty: Black Ops 7 perform well?
No. Black Ops 7 (released November 14, 2025, co-developed by Raven and Treyarch) finished 2025 in 5th place on US best-seller charts, the lowest mainline CoD ranking since 2008, and missed PlayStation's top-5 downloads for the first time in a decade, per IGN's January 2026 report.
Will Modern Warfare 4 turn around Call of Duty's decline?
Modern Warfare 4 launches October 23, 2026 via Infinity Ward and is widely viewed as the referendum on whether Black Ops 7's underperformance was a blip or a trend; its studio head said in July 2026 the team uses 'whatever tools we can,' including AI.
Timeline
  • 2026-07-15MW4 studio head says team uses 'whatever tools we can' regarding AI in development
  • 2026-04-01Co-founder Brian Raffel retires after 36 years, David Pellas becomes sole studio head
  • 2026-01-23Black Ops 7 finishes 5th in 2025 US charts, lowest CoD ranking since 2008
  • 2026-01-16Bobby Kotick court filing claims CoD sales fell over 60% YoY in 2025, disputed
  • 2025-08-16Raven layoffs hit roughly a third of QA staff in one round
  • 2025-08-05Raven QA union ratifies first contract with Microsoft: 10% raise, overtime limits
  • 2025-02-25Activision confirms generative AI used for some Call of Duty in-game assets
  • 2024-10-24Black Ops 6 launches, co-developed with Treyarch, becomes Microsoft's biggest CoD release
  • 2023-10Microsoft's $68.7 billion Activision Blizzard acquisition closes, Raven becomes Microsoft subsidiary
  • 1997-08Raven Software acquired by Activision
Revision history
23 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources