WillItSurvive

Scalable Capital

German neobroker offering trading, ETF savings plans, and now banking to 1M+ customers.

Losing its protection
Assessed 22 July 2026 · Evidence as of 22 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 22 July 2026 · Checkable from H1 2027 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: First post PFOF-ban profitability disclosure and customer growth comparison versus Trade Republic
The call

Scalable Capital has the license and the exchange to survive, but Trade Republic is already profitable and ten times its size in customers.

Scalable Capital is a European investment app that lets regular people buy stocks and funds. It has real banking approval and its own trading system, which are hard for competitors to build from scratch. However, Trade Republic is eight times bigger, already makes money, and keeps growing faster. A new rule in June 2026 will ban a major source of neobroker profits, and Scalable is still losing money, which makes catching up much harder. The company will probably survive, but whether it stays independent or gets bought by someone else depends entirely on whether it can close the gap with Trade Republic over the next two years or keeps falling further behind.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. Scalable ships its own 'Insights' AI feature to keep users informed, using AI to retain customers rather than losing them to it. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Trade Republic. Trade Republic is 8x bigger in AUM, already profitable three years running, and just cashed out investors without needing new capital. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. Its own banking license and EIX exchange give it control over custody, clearing, and lending that rivals still rent from others.
What would change this call
Scalable Capital discloses 2026 profitability or continued losses in earnings. Shows whether it can match Trade Republic's proven profitable model.
Scalable's customer and AUM growth rate versus Trade Republic's through 2026-2027. Widening gap signals losing ground; narrowing gap signals holding share.
Completion of Scalable's migration off Baader Bank onto its own banking infrastructure. Tests execution of the banking license that underpins its moat.
Key numbers
  • €30B+ AUM vs Trade Republic's €150B (June 2025 / Apr 2026)
  • 1M+ customers vs Trade Republic's 10M (June 2025 / Apr 2026)
  • €155M raised in Series F, still not profitable (June 2025)
Named risks
  • EU PFOF ban effective June 30, 2026 could compress neobroker revenue model before Scalable reaches profitability. Severity: high
  • Trade Republic's scale, profitability and valuation lead is widening, raising consolidation/M&A pressure on Scalable. Severity: high
  • Recurring platform outages and BaFin resilience scrutiny following April 2025 trading disruptions. Severity: medium
  • Unclear path to profitability while relying on external growth equity versus self-sufficient rival. Severity: medium
  • Integration risk transitioning client accounts from Baader Bank to in-house banking infrastructure since Sept 2025. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Trade Republiclosing to8x larger valuation (12.5B vs 1.5-1.7B euros) and profitable 3 straight years as of Mar 2026
Trade Republiclosing to10M customers and 150B euro AUM vs Scalable's 1M+ customers and 30B+ euros, Apr 2026
Deutsche Boerse GroupcontestingScalable's EIX exchange (Dec 2024) disintermediates part of Deutsche Boerse's 5.2B euro FY2025 revenue base
DEGIROcontestingCompetes across EU low-cost brokerage market, no independent share data available
Legacy bank brokers (Consorsbank, ING, Commerzbank DirektDepot)gaining onNeobroker fee pressure cited in German broker comparison report, Jul 2025
Questions people ask
Is Scalable Capital profitable in 2026?
Not confirmed. Per Wikipedia citing the Financial Times, Scalable Capital was targeting profitability around 2026, but no profitability has been publicly confirmed as of mid 2026. Rival Trade Republic, by contrast, has reported three consecutive profitable years as of March 2026.
Who owns Scalable Capital?
Scalable Capital is privately held and venture-backed, with investors including Balderton Capital, Tencent, HV Capital, Sofina, Noteus Partners and BlackRock (stake since 2017). It closed a 155 million euro Series F round on June 3, 2025, led by Sofina and Noteus Partners.
How does Scalable Capital compare to Trade Republic?
Trade Republic is roughly 8 times larger by valuation (12.5 billion euros vs Scalable's estimated 1.5 to 1.7 billion euros as of a December 2025 secondary sale), has about 10 million customers versus Scalable's 1 million plus, and has been profitable three years running as of March 2026.
Could AI replace Scalable Capital's business?
No. Scalable Capital's core moat is its ECB banking license (September 2025) and proprietary exchange EIX, which require regulatory status AI cannot replicate. The company itself deployed generative AI ('Insights,' launched September 2025) only as a customer-facing feature, not a replacement for licensed custody or lending.
How many employees does Scalable Capital have?
Estimates vary by source: the company self-reported over 600 employees in June 2025; Wikipedia and PitchBook cite over 700; Revelio Labs reports 711 as of December 2025 (up 51.5% year over year); Crustdata reports 856 as of June 2026.
What is Scalable Capital's valuation?
Estimated at 1.5 to 1.7 billion euros following its 155 million euro Series F round closed June 3, 2025, up from 1.4 billion euros in December 2023. This is roughly one eighth of Trade Republic's 12.5 billion euro valuation as of December 2025.
Timeline
  • 2026-06-16Status page shows recurring minor incidents (login, gettex/Xetra disruptions) into 2026
  • 2025-12-01Trade Republic completes 1.2B euro secondary sale, valuing it at 12.5B euros
  • 2025-09-09Scalable Capital receives full ECB banking license, becomes a bank
  • 2025-09-09Launches 'Insights' generative AI financial knowledge feature
  • 2025-08-25BaFin issues resilience/stress-test expectations after April 2025 outages
  • 2025-06-03Closes 155M euro Series F round led by Sofina and Noteus Partners
  • 2025-04-01US tariff shock drives record trading volumes and some access delays
  • 2025-02-01Begins offering retail access to a BlackRock private equity ELTIF fund
  • 2024-12-01Launches European Investor Exchange (EIX) with Boerse Hannover
  • 2023-12-01Prior funding round values company at 1.4B dollars
Revision history
22 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources