WillItSurvive
Space, defense and state enterprises · Luxembourg

SES S.A.

ses.com ↗

Luxembourg satellite operator running GEO and MEO fleets after buying Intelsat, chasing government and aviation contracts.

Losing its protection
Assessed 24 July 2026 · Evidence as of 24 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 24 July 2026 · Checkable from within 6 months of mid-2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: FCC ruling on EPFD spectrum power limits, which could favor Starlink Gen2 if relaxed
The call

SES survives on government contracts and a bigger fleet after buying Intelsat, while Starlink keeps taking the commercial customers SES needs to pay down its debt.

SES is a company that owns and operates satellites in space to deliver television, internet, and other communications services around the world. For years SES was the main player in this business, but Starlink (Elon Musk's company) has launched thousands of newer, cheaper satellites that provide faster internet and is taking away SES's customers in aviation, shipping, and business services. SES does have one real advantage: the European government has committed to using SES satellites for a major project called IRIS2, which gives SES steady income that Starlink does not have. The thing that could change everything in the next six months is a U.S. government decision about how much power Starlink satellites are allowed to broadcast at; if regulators tighten those limits, it would hurt Starlink's ability to compete and give SES more breathing room.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI is not the thing eating SES; the fight is satellites versus satellites, not software versus satellites. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Starlink (SpaceX). Starlink has over 10 million subscribers and is winning aviation, maritime, and enterprise deals that SES counts as its growth segments. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. A 12-year EU IRIS2 concession worth up to euro6 billion in guaranteed government revenue, plus GEO/MEO contracts Starlink cannot easily replicate for sovereign customers.
What would change this call
FCC issues its EPFD spectrum power-limit ruling within the next six months. Would show whether regulation still shields SES's GEO fleet from Starlink's LEO interference claims.
O3b mPOWER satellites 11 to 13 launch and operate successfully in H2 2026. Would show SES can execute its MEO buildout after four prior satellite failures.
SES reports net leverage at or below 4x in upcoming quarterly results. Would show deleveraging progress needed to fund competition against better-capitalized Starlink.
Key numbers
  • Q1 2026 revenue euro847m, up 80% YoY after Intelsat deal (2026-05-12)
  • Net leverage 4.1x, above the sub-3x target (2026-05-12)
  • Aviation revenue euro382m in FY2025, up 29% like-for-like (2026-03-02)
Named risks
  • FCC EPFD ruling could relax power limits favoring Starlink Gen2, eroding SES's GEO commercial moat. Severity: high
  • Net leverage at 4.1x as of Q1 2026, above sub-3x deleveraging target. Severity: medium
  • O3b mPOWER satellites 11-13 launch in H2 2026 follows prior satellite 1-4 failures. Severity: medium
  • FY2025 combined results came in below initial post-Intelsat merger expectations. Severity: medium
  • Starlink and Amazon Leo actively taking share in aviation, maritime and enterprise verticals SES depends on for growth. Severity: high
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Starlink (SpaceX/xAI)losing toStarlink surpassed 10 million subscribers across 155+ countries as of Feb 2026, dominant in aviation/maritime
Amazon Leo (Project Kuiper)gaining onLaunched ~212+ satellites by end-Feb 2026 targeting enterprise and rural broadband with ~$400 terminals
Eutelsat GroupcontestingThird-largest satellite operator by revenue; also part of IRIS2 SpaceRISE consortium with SES as of Dec 2024
Telesat (Lightspeed)gaining onReported ~$1 billion backlog building LEO Lightspeed constellation as of Feb 2026
Questions people ask
Is SES profitable in 2026?
SES guided 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA to be roughly stable year-on-year on a like-for-like basis as of May 2026, after FY2025 combined revenue of about €3,656 million came in below initial post-merger expectations, with net leverage at 4.1x as of Q1 2026.
Who owns SES S.A.?
SES is a publicly traded company with no single controlling parent, listed as SESG on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange and Euronext Paris. It completed a $2.6 billion (€2.2 billion cash plus contingent value rights) acquisition of rival Intelsat on 17 July 2025, making Intelsat a wholly owned subsidiary.
Could Starlink replace SES?
Starlink already dominates commercial verticals SES relies on, with over 10 million subscribers across 155+ countries as of February 2026 and growing share in aviation, maritime, and enterprise. SES retains a sovereign moat via the EU's IRIS2 concession, signed 16 December 2024, which structurally excludes Starlink from government work.
Who is SES's biggest competitor?
Starlink, now merged with xAI as of 2 February 2026, is SES's biggest commercial threat with 10,000+ satellites and 10 million-plus subscribers marketed for aviation and orbital-AI infrastructure. Eutelsat and Amazon Leo are also direct rivals in the LEO/GEO connectivity market as of mid-2026.
Is SES a safe company to join in 2026?
SES's headcount roughly doubled to about 3,830 by end-2025 after absorbing Intelsat, and the company reported €847 million Q1 2026 revenue (up 80% year-on-year). However, net leverage stood at 4.1x versus a sub-3x target as of 12 May 2026, signaling financial strain during integration.
Did SES complete the Intelsat acquisition?
Yes, SES completed its acquisition of Intelsat on 17 July 2025, paying $2.6 billion (€2.2 billion cash) plus contingent value rights, creating a combined 120-satellite GEO and MEO fleet with LEO access and pro-forma revenue near €3.7 billion.
Timeline
  • 2026-07-23Thales CEO confirms progression on EU's multi-billion-euro IRIS2 sovereign constellation
  • 2026-05-12Q1 2026 results: revenue €847m (+80% YoY), net leverage 4.1x, backlog €6.2bn
  • 2026-03-31SES raises €650 million in oversubscribed hybrid securities
  • 2026-03-20SES and SpaceX reported still at odds over FCC EPFD spectrum-sharing rules
  • 2026-03-02FY2025 results: combined revenue ~€3,656m, Adjusted EBITDA €1,783m, below initial targets
  • 2026-02-02SpaceX announces merger with xAI, repositioning Starlink for orbital AI infrastructure
  • 2026-02O3b mPOWER satellites 9 and 10 enter service
  • 2025-07-22O3b mPOWER satellites 9 and 10 launched
  • 2025-07-17SES completes acquisition of Intelsat for €2.2bn cash plus contingent value rights
  • 2024-12-16SpaceRISE consortium led by SES signs 12-year EU IRIS2 concession contract
Revision history
24 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
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