WillItSurvive
Financial data and information services · Israel

Similarweb

similarweb.com ↗

Sells web traffic and SEO data plus analytics tools to marketers and enterprises.

Losing its protection
Assessed 21 July 2026 · Evidence as of 21 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 21 July 2026 · Checkable from mid-August 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings: NRR trend and whether new LLM licensing customers beyond the existing two show up
The call

Similarweb's data is valuable enough that AI labs pay for it, but its subscription base is shrinking while Semrush copies its core dataset.

Similarweb collects information about how hundreds of millions of websites get visited and what people search for, then sells that data to businesses through a subscription service. Right now this is hard to copy because Similarweb spent years building their dataset, but Semrush (a competitor) just bought a company called Datos to build their own version, and free AI tools like ChatGPT are replacing some of what Similarweb's customers used to pay for. The company is now trying to make money by selling their data to AI companies instead, but those deals are still unpredictable one-time payments rather than steady monthly revenue, which is why investors are worried about whether this new business can really work.

Why
01
AI pressure: ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini and other AI answer engines. AI answer engines cut the SEO traffic Similarweb's customers chase, but AI labs also pay Similarweb seven figures to license its clickstream data for training and grounding. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Semrush (with its Datos clickstream acquisition). Semrush now ships its own enterprise-grade clickstream dataset via Datos, directly contesting the data panel Similarweb built its business on. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. A roughly 100-million-site clickstream panel and 6-billion-keyword dataset that's hard to rebuild, now drawing LLM licensing deals worth tens of millions.
What would change this call
Q2 2026 earnings (mid-August 2026) NRR print. NRR back above 105% would show the base is stabilizing, not eroding.
Announcement of a third or fourth new LLM/agent data-licensing customer beyond the two Q1 2026 deals. Would show AI licensing is repeatable revenue, not one-off whale deals.
Semrush announcing new enterprise clients using its Datos clickstream product. Would show Similarweb's data moat is being punctured on the enterprise side.
Key numbers
  • ARR topped $300M on two $47M enterprise AI contracts (2026-06-15)
  • NRR 98% overall, customer count down 1% sequentially (2026-03-31)
  • Stock at $6.58, off 52-week high of $10.75 (2026-07-21)
Named risks
  • Sub-100% overall net revenue retention signals customer base erosion at commodity tier. Severity: high
  • CEO succession overhang through mid-2027 after 20-year founder tenure. Severity: medium
  • AI/LLM data-licensing revenue remains lumpy, whale-deal dependent, not proven recurring. Severity: high
  • Shekel strengthening against dollar pressures margins given Israel-based cost base. Severity: medium
  • Geopolitical instability in Middle East disrupted operations for a month in Q1 2026. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Semrushlosing toSemrush acquired majority stake in Datos, shipping enterprise clickstream rival around May 2026
Google Analytics/Search ConsolecontestingFree first-party tools pressure Similarweb's self-serve SMB tier, structurally blocked from cross-site selling
AhrefscontestingCompetes directly in SEO backlink and keyword tooling as of 2026 comparison reviews
AI answer engines (ChatGPT, Perplexity, Gemini)gaining onSimilarweb launched AEO product in 2026 to track brand visibility inside these tools, reacting to their rise
Questions people ask
Is Similarweb profitable in 2026?
Not on a GAAP basis. Similarweb posted a GAAP net loss of $6.4M in Q1 2026, though improved from $9.3M a year earlier. It has logged 10 consecutive quarters of positive normalized free cash flow as of Q1 2026, per its own reporting.
Who is Similarweb's biggest competitor?
Semrush is Similarweb's closest rival, offering a broader all-in-one SEO and PPC suite. Semrush acquired a majority stake in Datos, an enterprise clickstream data provider, folding it into its enterprise product line around May 2026, directly challenging Similarweb's core data moat.
Could AI replace Similarweb?
Unlikely for its core data layer. Similarweb holds a proprietary panel covering about 100 million websites, 6 billion keywords, and 4 million apps that AI models cannot independently replicate. Instead, Similarweb is licensing this data to LLM vendors, including a seven-figure contract signed in Q1 2026 (vendor-claimed).
Who owns Similarweb?
Similarweb Ltd. is publicly traded on the NYSE under ticker SMWB, with no parent company. It IPO'd on May 12, 2021 at $19 to $21 per share, raising $160 million at roughly a $1.6 billion valuation; market cap had fallen to about $577M to $643M by July 2026.
Is Similarweb's revenue growing?
Yes but decelerating in parts. FY2025 revenue reached $282.6M, up 13% year over year from $249.9M in FY2024. Q1 2026 revenue was $73.9M, up 10% YoY, and ARR surpassed $300M by Q2 2026, though customer count fell 1% sequentially in Q1 2026.
What is Similarweb doing with AI companies?
Similarweb is licensing its clickstream and keyword data to AI vendors rather than only fearing AI disruption. It launched an MCP Server in September 2025 connecting to Claude, Copilot, and Cursor, and expanded a data partnership with Manus AI (acquired by Meta in December 2025) in May 2026.
Timeline
  • 2026-06-15Similarweb reports ARR topped $300M on ~$47M in new multi-year seven-figure contracts (vendor-claimed)
  • 2026-05-13Founder CEO Or Offer announces plan to step down by mid-2027; succession search begins
  • 2026-05-13Q1 2026 results: revenue $73.9M (+10% YoY), NRR 98%, GAAP net loss $6.4M
  • 2026-05-01Manus AI (Meta-owned) data partnership expanded to add keyword and referral datasets
  • 2026-02-01Similarweb AI Studio launches for enterprise natural-language market research
  • 2025-09-01Similarweb launches MCP Server integrating with Claude, Copilot, Cursor, Zapier
  • 2025-03-01Similarweb acquires The Search Monitor for paid search and affiliate monitoring
  • 2023-05-10Similarweb lays off 6% of staff (~60 employees), second round in six months
  • 2022-11-01Similarweb lays off 10% of staff (~130 employees)
  • 2021-05-12Similarweb IPOs on NYSE at $19-21/share, raising $160M at ~$1.6B valuation
Revision history
21 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
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