Is TD Bank profitable in 2026?

Yes. TD Bank Group reported Q2 FY2026 adjusted earnings of C$4.2B and adjusted EPS of C$2.38, up 15% and 21% YoY respectively, as of April 30, 2026. FY2025 adjusted earnings were C$15.03B with adjusted EPS of C$8.37, up 5% and 7% YoY.

Who is TD Bank Group's biggest competitor?

Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) leads in Canadian mortgage market share at 18.4% versus TD's 15.5% as of Q1 2026, and RBC is rated Canada's strongest banking brand, per Brand Finance's March 2026 rankings, even though TD ranks as the most valuable Canadian banking brand.

What happened with TD Bank's money laundering scandal?

TD settled a US$3.09B AML case with a US$434B U.S. asset cap in October 2024. As of July 20, 2026, two former TD employees were sentenced for their roles in the scheme, with the DOJ signaling more prosecutions may follow.

Why did TD Bank sell its Charles Schwab stake?

TD fully exited its ~10.1% (184.7 million share) equity stake in Charles Schwab on February 12, 2025, netting about US$1.5B directly from Schwab plus additional proceeds from a registered offering, totaling roughly US$15B, funding an $8B share buyback.

Is TD Bank Group's US asset cap going to be lifted soon?

No confirmed timeline exists as of July 2026. The US$434B asset cap imposed in October 2024 remains indefinite; lifting requires sustained regulatory compliance progress, and Q2 FY2026 AML remediation costs of US$173M remained above the prior ~US$500M/year guidance.

Banks and financial groups · Canada

TD Bank Group

td.com ↗

TD Bank Group is a C$2.1T Canadian bank serving 28 million clients across Canada and the US.

Defensible for now

Assessed 22 July 2026 · Evidence as of 22 July 2026

Real protection, with named pressure against it.

On the recordSince 22 July 2026 · Checkable from August 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q3 FY2026 earnings, the next checkpoint on whether AML remediation costs are moderating

The call

TD's size and charter make it unshakeable, but a DOJ settlement, an open-ended US asset cap, and ongoing prosecutions keep it in cleanup mode rather than growth mode.

TD Bank Group is one of Canada's largest banks with $2.1 trillion in assets. It is hard to replace because it has a government-granted banking license, a huge customer deposit base, and deep roots in Canada and the US, but no real competitors are trying to take its customers away. The bank is currently fixing serious money-laundering compliance failures from 2024, paying penalties and facing criminal charges that are costing more than expected, plus the US government has frozen its ability to grow assets there. The key question over the next few years is whether these compliance problems gradually get solved and costs come down, or whether surprises keep popping up and the bank stays in firefighting mode instead of focusing on normal business growth.

Why

AI pressure: None apparent. AI chatbots and robo advisors nibble at retail service jobs, but deposits, mortgages, and compliance stay with chartered banks like TD. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: None apparent. No tech giant or fintech has a banking charter big enough to take TD's deposit base or its US$434B-cap-limited US franchise. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. A G-SIB charter, 28 million client relationships, and a deposit base that regulation makes almost impossible to replicate.

What would change this call

TD's Q3 FY2026 earnings (August 2026) AML remediation cost trend. Whether compliance costs are normalizing or still eroding TD's competitiveness.
OCC decision on the US$434B asset cap in 2026. Whether TD regains ability to grow US deposits and compete with JPMorgan, Bank of America.
Quarterly Canadian mortgage/RESL market share reports (e.g. WOWA Lenders Report). Whether RBC or others keep gaining share from TD in core Canadian banking.

Key numbers

Total assets C$2.095 trillion (2025-10-31)
US asset cap of US$434B, indefinite (2026-05-28)
CET1 capital ratio 14.7% (2025-10-31)

Named risks

AML remediation costs (US$173M in Q2 FY2026) running above prior ~US$500M/year guidance. Severity: high
Indefinite US$434B U.S. asset cap constraining growth with no confirmed lift timeline. Severity: high
Ongoing DOJ prosecutions of former employees, with more expected as of July 2026. Severity: medium
Restructuring disruption continuing into 2026 with staggered RTO and further layoffs. Severity: medium
$6-7B fiscal 2026 buyback subject to regulatory approval, could pause if compliance deteriorates. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Royal Bank of Canada	losing to	RBC holds 18.4% Canadian mortgage share vs TD's 15.5% and rated strongest brand, March 2026
Charles Schwab	contesting	TD exited its ~10.1% Schwab equity stake Feb 2025 but retains commercial IDA relationship
JPMorganChase	losing to	JPMorgan's LLM Suite scaled to 200,000 users within 8 months of 2024 launch, ahead of TD's May 2026 agentic AI debut
Wealthsimple	gaining on	Digital challenger cited as pressuring fee-sensitive deposit and investing segments industry-wide, 2026
CIBC	contesting	Direct competitor to TD in retail and mortgage lending across Canada

Questions people ask

Is TD Bank profitable in 2026?: Yes. TD Bank Group reported Q2 FY2026 adjusted earnings of C$4.2B and adjusted EPS of C$2.38, up 15% and 21% YoY respectively, as of April 30, 2026. FY2025 adjusted earnings were C$15.03B with adjusted EPS of C$8.37, up 5% and 7% YoY.
Who is TD Bank Group's biggest competitor?: Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) leads in Canadian mortgage market share at 18.4% versus TD's 15.5% as of Q1 2026, and RBC is rated Canada's strongest banking brand, per Brand Finance's March 2026 rankings, even though TD ranks as the most valuable Canadian banking brand.
What happened with TD Bank's money laundering scandal?: TD settled a US$3.09B AML case with a US$434B U.S. asset cap in October 2024. As of July 20, 2026, two former TD employees were sentenced for their roles in the scheme, with the DOJ signaling more prosecutions may follow.
Why did TD Bank sell its Charles Schwab stake?: TD fully exited its ~10.1% (184.7 million share) equity stake in Charles Schwab on February 12, 2025, netting about US$1.5B directly from Schwab plus additional proceeds from a registered offering, totaling roughly US$15B, funding an $8B share buyback.
Is TD Bank Group's US asset cap going to be lifted soon?: No confirmed timeline exists as of July 2026. The US$434B asset cap imposed in October 2024 remains indefinite; lifting requires sustained regulatory compliance progress, and Q2 FY2026 AML remediation costs of US$173M remained above the prior ~US$500M/year guidance.

Timeline

2026-07-20Two former TD employees sentenced for money-laundering scheme; DOJ expects more prosecutions
2026-05-28Q2 FY2026 results: adjusted earnings C$4.2B, adjusted EPS C$2.38, up 21% YoY
2026-04-16CEO Raymond Chun delivers 2026 AGM address on strategy pillars and record results
2026-01-31Q1 FY2026 record earnings over $4.2B, record EPS $2.44, up 21% YoY
2025-12-04FY2025 annual letter: adjusted revenue C$61.81B, adjusted earnings C$15.03B, CET1 14.7%
2025-10-24TD lays off staff, staggers return-to-office amid AML remediation and $262M Q3 charge
2025-09Investor Day launches new strategy: Deeper Relationships, Simpler and Faster, Disciplined Execution
2025-05-22TD cuts ~2% of workforce (~2,000 employees), $163M charge, ~$550-650M annual savings guided
2025-02-12TD closes sale of Charles Schwab stake, netting roughly US$15B total
2025-02-01Raymond Chun becomes Group President and CEO, accelerated from planned April 2025
2024-10-10TD resolves AML investigations with US$3.09B settlement and US$434B asset cap

Revision history

22 July 2026

First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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