Is Trip.com Group profitable in 2026?

Yes. Trip.com reported FY2025 net income of roughly RMB 33.4 billion (about $4.8 billion) on revenue of $8.9-9.0 billion, up 17% YoY, though a large share of the profit jump came from investment and stake-sale gains rather than core operations, as of December 31, 2025.

Could AI replace Trip.com Group?

Unlikely soon. Trip.com's TripGenie AI assistant sits on top of the company's own 110,000-plus supplier connections and payment/booking rails, so standalone AI travel apps still must redirect users to Trip.com or rivals to actually transact, per company and industry commentary as of March 2026.

Is Trip.com Group under antitrust investigation?

Yes. China's SAMR opened a formal antitrust probe on January 14, 2026 into alleged predatory pricing, forced exclusivity, and MFN clauses; as of July 20, 2026 a ruling was expected imminently, with fines estimated between $279 million and $840 million.

Who owns Trip.com Group?

Trip.com Group is publicly traded with no single parent, dual-listed on NASDAQ (TCOM, since 2003) and Hong Kong Stock Exchange (9961.HK, since April 2021). Institutional ownership was about 35% as of mid-2026, with Vanguard, Fidelity International, and JPMorgan Asset Management among top holders.

Is it risky to join Trip.com Group as an employee right now?

There is elevated uncertainty. Two co-founders, Min Fan and Qi Ji, resigned February 25, 2026 amid the SAMR antitrust probe, and Q2 2026 revenue growth guidance collapsed to 3-8% YoY from prior mid-teens/20%-plus growth, though headcount still grew to 43,574 employees by December 31, 2025.

Who is Trip.com Group's biggest competitor?

Globally, Booking Holdings and Expedia Group are the closest rivals, though both remain structurally blocked from China's domestic market by licensing and payment-rail requirements Trip.com controls. Domestically, Trip.com owns rival Qunar itself, acquired in 2015, which is also scrutinized in the current SAMR probe.

Consumer platforms · China

Trip.com Group

trip.com ↗

Chinese online travel platform booking flights, hotels, and trips worldwide.

Losing its protection

Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026

The structural protection is eroding.

On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from late July 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: SAMR antitrust ruling and remedies decision

The call

Trip.com's China grip built its size, and the same grip is now the exact thing regulators are trying to loosen.

Trip.com is China's largest website for booking hotels, flights, and vacation packages. It became dominant because Western competitors like Booking and Expedia cannot operate there due to Chinese rules, payment systems, and supplier connections they don't have. However, China's antitrust regulator started investigating Trip.com in January 2026 for unfair practices, forcing the company to change how it works, and its growth has already collapsed from 17-21% down to 3-8% in recent quarters. The key question is whether regulators will only force minor rule changes or demand something far more serious, like breaking up parts of the company or forcing it to work with competitors, which could permanently reshape how profitable it is.

Why

AI pressure: Chinese AI assistants like Doubao and DeepSeek plus global AI travel planners. AI trip planners could route bookings around Trip.com's app, but most still funnel users back to its supplier network. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: China's SAMR antitrust regulator. SAMR probe (filed Jan 2026) could force Trip.com to end exclusivity and MFN clauses that built its China dominance. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. Licensing, payment rails, and 110,000+ supplier ties that Booking and Expedia cannot replicate inside China.

What would change this call

SAMR issues its antitrust ruling and remedies clause, expected around July 20 to 26, 2026. Shows whether Trip.com's China moat faces only fines or forced structural breakup.
Q2 2026 earnings report, expected around August 24 to 26, 2026, growth rate versus the 3 to 8 percent guidance. Shows whether compliance adjustments are temporary or a lasting drag on growth.
Any announced end to exclusivity or MFN clauses with hotel and travel suppliers in China. Would confirm regulators are dismantling the structural lock in that created Trip.com's moat.

Key numbers

FY2025 revenue $8.9B-$9.0B, up 17% YoY (2025-12-31)
Q2 2026 growth guided to just 3-8% YoY (2026-06-24)
Cash position $15.1B as of Q1 2026 (2026-03-31)

Named risks

SAMR antitrust ruling could impose structural remedies ending exclusivity/MFN clauses. Severity: high
US securities class-action lawsuits alleging understated antitrust risk in disclosures. Severity: medium
Leadership continuity gap after co-founder resignations amid regulatory scrutiny. Severity: medium
Growth deceleration from 17-21% to guided 3-8% YoY signals margin pressure. Severity: high
Insider share sales (~$1.1B by former president in 2025) preceding regulatory action raise governance concerns. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Booking Holdings	contesting	Global OTA leader remains blocked from China domestic market by licensing/payment rails, as of 2026-07
Expedia Group	contesting	Structurally excluded from China's market; softer US inbound demand noted in 2025 industry analysis
MakeMyTrip	losing to	Trip.com sold down its 49% voting stake in 2025, reducing prior equity linkage
Qunar	contesting	Domestic rival actually owned by Trip.com since 2015, now co-scrutinized in 2026 SAMR probe
Chinese State (SAMR regulator)	losing to	Antitrust probe opened Jan 14, 2026 forcing 'compliance adjustments' that cut Q2 2026 growth guidance to 3-8%

Questions people ask

Is Trip.com Group profitable in 2026?: Yes. Trip.com reported FY2025 net income of roughly RMB 33.4 billion (about $4.8 billion) on revenue of $8.9-9.0 billion, up 17% YoY, though a large share of the profit jump came from investment and stake-sale gains rather than core operations, as of December 31, 2025.
Could AI replace Trip.com Group?: Unlikely soon. Trip.com's TripGenie AI assistant sits on top of the company's own 110,000-plus supplier connections and payment/booking rails, so standalone AI travel apps still must redirect users to Trip.com or rivals to actually transact, per company and industry commentary as of March 2026.
Is Trip.com Group under antitrust investigation?: Yes. China's SAMR opened a formal antitrust probe on January 14, 2026 into alleged predatory pricing, forced exclusivity, and MFN clauses; as of July 20, 2026 a ruling was expected imminently, with fines estimated between $279 million and $840 million.
Who owns Trip.com Group?: Trip.com Group is publicly traded with no single parent, dual-listed on NASDAQ (TCOM, since 2003) and Hong Kong Stock Exchange (9961.HK, since April 2021). Institutional ownership was about 35% as of mid-2026, with Vanguard, Fidelity International, and JPMorgan Asset Management among top holders.
Is it risky to join Trip.com Group as an employee right now?: There is elevated uncertainty. Two co-founders, Min Fan and Qi Ji, resigned February 25, 2026 amid the SAMR antitrust probe, and Q2 2026 revenue growth guidance collapsed to 3-8% YoY from prior mid-teens/20%-plus growth, though headcount still grew to 43,574 employees by December 31, 2025.
Who is Trip.com Group's biggest competitor?: Globally, Booking Holdings and Expedia Group are the closest rivals, though both remain structurally blocked from China's domestic market by licensing and payment-rail requirements Trip.com controls. Domestically, Trip.com owns rival Qunar itself, acquired in 2015, which is also scrutinized in the current SAMR probe.

Timeline

2026-07-20SCMP/CPI report SAMR antitrust ruling expected imminently, fines estimated $279M-$840M
2026-06-24Q1 2026 revenue $2.35-2.4B up 17% YoY; Q2 2026 guidance cut to 3-8% YoY growth
2026-05-06Levi & Korsinsky securities class-action lawsuit lead plaintiff deadline
2026-03-15TripGenie marks 3rd anniversary, company claims 400% YoY AI-assisted booking growth
2026-03-04Trip.Planner wins ITB Innovator 2026 award at ITB Berlin
2026-02-25Co-founders Min Fan and Qi Ji resign amid antitrust probe
2026-01-14China SAMR opens formal antitrust probe into Trip.com
2021-04-19Trip.com dual-lists on Hong Kong Stock Exchange (9961.HK)
2019-10Ctrip.com International renamed Trip.com Group Limited

Revision history

23 July 2026

First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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