WillItSurvive

Yandex N.V.

Former Yandex N.V., now Nebius: rents Nvidia GPU capacity to AI labs and hyperscalers.

Losing its protection
Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from Sept 11, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Nvidia's 22M-share warrant unlock, adding sell pressure and clarifying its real stake
The call

Nebius rents out GPUs its own customers could eventually build themselves, and its growth depends on a capex boom that has not yet been tested by a downturn.

Nebius rents computer chips (GPUs) to huge tech companies like Microsoft and Meta who need them for artificial intelligence. The business grew super fast and signed giant contracts worth over $40 billion. But here is the problem: GPU chips are basically the same no matter who sells them, and the big companies renting from Nebius are also building their own chip capacity at the same time. Meta is even talking about selling its extra chips to compete directly with Nebius. The one thing that could change this is if Nebius can get customers to depend on special software or services they cannot get elsewhere, but right now that is not happening.

Why
01
AI pressure: Meta Compute (Meta's rumored internal GPU reselling platform). If Meta resells its own spare GPUs instead of buying Nebius capacity, a top customer becomes a rival supplier. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: Microsoft Azure, AWS, Google Cloud in-house GPU buildout. Nebius's biggest customers can build or lease their own GPU farms once their capex catches up, cutting Nebius out. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. Multi-year signed contracts with Microsoft and Meta lock in revenue through 2029-2030 regardless of spot GPU pricing.
What would change this call
Meta launches a 'Meta Compute' reseller offering within 12 months. Would show a major customer turning into a direct competitor for compute buyers.
Nvidia's 22M+ warrant shares unlock and are sold after Sept 11, 2026. Would show reduced strategic backing confidence from Nebius's key investor-partner.
Microsoft or Meta renegotiate or shrink contracted GPU commitments in 2026 filings. Would show customer concentration risk materializing as revenue instability.
Key numbers
  • FY2025 revenue $529.8M, up 479% YoY (2026-02-12)
  • Microsoft contract worth up to $19.4B over 5 years (2025-09-09)
  • Nvidia owns 9.3% stake, worth ~$4-5B (2026-07-21)
Named risks
  • Two customers, Microsoft and Meta, plausibly represent majority of contracted revenue, high concentration. Severity: high
  • Meta, largest committed customer, reportedly building competing 'Meta Compute' resale offering. Severity: high
  • $20-25 billion FY2026 capex against commodity GPU assets that depreciate fast, financed via new debt. Severity: high
  • Nvidia's 21+ million warrant shares unlock September 11, 2026, creating potential share supply overhang. Severity: medium
  • Stock extreme volatility, down 40% from 2026 high then up 18.9% in a day, signals event sensitivity. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
CoreWeavelosing toCoreWeave had ~250,000 GPUs and $99.4B backlog vs Nebius's smaller scale, as of May 2026
Meta (as Meta Compute)contestingMeta, a top Nebius customer worth up to $27B, reportedly exploring reselling own compute, July 2026
Microsoft AzurecontestingAzure is both customer ($17.4-19.4B deal, Sept 2025) and potential in-house builder of GPU capacity
AWSlosing toAWS holds ~30% global cloud infrastructure market share vs Nebius's niche neocloud position, 2024 data
Google Cloudlosing toGoogle Cloud holds ~12% global market share and can self-build GPU capacity, 2024 data
Questions people ask
Is Yandex N.V. still a Russian internet company?
No. Yandex N.V. sold its entire Russian operating business for about $5.4 billion, with the deal closing July 15, 2024, and renamed itself Nebius Group N.V., now trading on Nasdaq as NBIS as an AI cloud infrastructure company.
Is Nebius (formerly Yandex N.V.) profitable?
Nebius turned Adjusted EBITDA positive in Q4 2025 at $15.0 million versus a $63.9 million loss a year earlier, and Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA rose further to $129.5 million, though this is adjusted, not GAAP net income, as of July 2026.
Who is Nebius's biggest competitor?
CoreWeave (Nasdaq: CRWV) is the largest established neocloud rival, with about 250,000 GPUs, 43 data centers, and $2.078 billion Q1 2026 revenue as of May 2026, while Nebius also competes with IREN, Lambda, and Together AI.
Could Nebius's biggest customers become its competitors?
Yes. Bloomberg reported, per coverage dated July 9, 2026, that Meta, Nebius's major contracted customer under a deal worth up to $27 billion, is exploring reselling its own excess AI compute via a 'Meta Compute' offering.
How much has Nvidia invested in Nebius?
Nvidia announced a $2 billion investment in Nebius on March 11, 2026, and an SEC Schedule 13G filing disclosed on July 21, 2026 showed Nvidia beneficially owning 9.3% of Nebius, worth roughly $4 to $5 billion, mostly via warrants locked up until September 11, 2026.
How fast is Nebius growing revenue?
Nebius's FY2025 revenue reached $529.8 million, up 479% year over year from $91.5 million in 2024, and Q1 2026 revenue hit $399 million, up about 684% year over year, as reported in company results through February and July 2026.
Timeline
  • 2026-07-21SEC 13G filing shows Nvidia owns 9.3% of Nebius, worth roughly $4-5 billion
  • 2026-07-18Nebius raises first secured debt facility, $775 million GPU-backed, maturing 2030
  • 2026-07-09Bloomberg reports Meta exploring 'Meta Compute' resale offering, per coverage
  • 2026-06-10Nebius guidance cites FY2026 capex of $20-25 billion
  • 2026-03-11Nvidia announces $2 billion investment in Nebius
  • 2026-02-28Nebius acquires agentic-search startup Tavily for about $400 million
  • 2026-02-12Nebius reports FY2025 revenue of $529.8 million, up 479% year over year
  • 2025-09-09Microsoft signs five-year GPU infrastructure deal worth up to $19.4 billion
  • 2024-10-21Nebius resumes Nasdaq trading after 2022 sanctions suspension
  • 2024-07-15Yandex N.V. closes sale of Russian operating business for about $5.4 billion
Revision history
23 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources