Durability Ranking: Companies in Australia
Of 254 Australian companies assessed in July 2026, 60 rated Hard to displace and 87 losing its protection. See who holds ground and what to watch.
What this ranking covers
WillItSurvive assessed 10,525 companies worldwide in July 2026, and this cut looks at the 254 assessed companies operating in Australia. Each company was researched individually against dated, verifiable facts. We never declare an outcome for any company; what follows is what the evidence showed as of July 2026, plus dated watch-items you can verify yourself.
The headline numbers: of the 254 Australian companies assessed in July 2026, 60 carried the top standing of Hard to displace while 87 sat losing its protection, the largest single group in the country. Another 43 were rated protection under test, 43 defensible for now, and 19 Little protection left, the most exposed label.
The pattern: physical and regulated moats hold, thin digital ones do not
The Australian data splits cleanly. Companies that own something physical, regulated, or deeply embedded show almost no customer movement. Companies that are essentially a website, a labor pool, or a replicable subscription are being picked apart by larger global platforms and cheaper AI-native rivals.
At the durable end sit the big banks (Commonwealth Bank, NAB, Westpac, all rated Hard to displace as of July 2026), BHP Group, the world's largest miner by value with no visible customer defection, and infrastructure owners. APA Group owns roughly half of Australia's gas pipeline network, and customers have essentially nowhere else to route their gas, which is why it rated Hard to displace in the July 2026 assessment. Aurizon Holdings holds a 99-year government lease over Australia's largest coal rail network and also rated Hard to displace. Commonwealth Bank's evidence base showed 18.2 million customers relying on it for deposits, mortgages and payments, with no rival documented taking meaningful share as of July 2026.
Healthcare shows the same shape. Cochlear holds roughly half the global hearing implant market, and its only real rival, Sonova's Advanced Bionics, has sat near 25% share for about two decades. Sonic Healthcare, Ramsay Health Care, Pro Medicus and Nanosonics all rated Hard to displace. So did retail incumbents Woolworths, Coles and Wesfarmers, plus the University of Melbourne, University of Sydney, Monash and TAFE NSW. Among private tech names, Canva rated Hard to displace, as did Blackmagic Design, Procreate and, notably, indie game developer Team Cherry.
Who is under the most pressure
The exposed end of the list is not hypothetical. MyDeal.com.au and Catch.com.au both rated Little protection left, the most exposed standing, after losing price-sensitive shoppers to Amazon Australia, Temu and Shein; both marketplaces were shut down by their owners in 2025. Appen rated Little protection left after its Western revenue fell 37% year over year, with clients such as Google shifting frontier AI evaluation work to Surge AI and Mercor. F45 Training, also rated Little protection left, was trading as a penny stock as of July 2026 while Orangetheory and Body Fit Training absorbed closing studios and departing franchisees. Ambition Group, also rated Little protection left, recorded a 75% revenue decline in a year as global recruiters like Hays and PageGroup took the same placements.
Media sits in the slow-erosion middle. Nine Entertainment rated losing its protection in July 2026: Google AI Overviews were cutting readers and digital subscription revenue at The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald, streaming rivals were pulling viewers from Stan, and 30 job cuts had already been reported. Seven West Media rated protection under test, and Southern Cross Media rated losing its protection. Australia Post's StarTrack business faced Amazon Logistics AU's new robotics hub and same-day network just as letter volumes fell more than 11% a year.
Australian fintech and lending is a notably crowded shaky zone: Zip Co, Latitude Financial, Prospa, Wisr, MoneyMe, Beforepay and Judo Bank all rated losing its protection in July 2026, and Afterpay rated protection under test. Crypto-adjacent names skewed exposed too, with Synthetix and First Digital both rating Little protection left.
The middle: too early to call
A large band of well-known names sits between the poles. Atlassian rated defensible for now, as did SEEK, AirTrunk, NEXTDC, CSL and Woodside Energy. WiseTech Global and Airwallex both rated protection under test, suggesting open questions beyond customer defection. Iress, MYOB, JB Hi-Fi, Domain Group, Kogan.com, Virgin Australia and Treasury Wine Estates all landed in the protection under test band.
How much to trust these labels
The method behind these standings was tested against history. In that test, 116 companies that later failed were evaluated using only facts that were knowable 18 months before their collapse; 90% were flagged as at risk, and none were cleared as safe. Matched companies that survived, evaluated the same way at the same point in time, were flagged as at risk only 17% of the time. We do not claim to have predicted anything; the supported claim is that, given only pre-collapse facts, the method separated companies headed for a terminal event from matched survivors. In Australia's case, MyDeal and Catch closing in 2025 is the same pattern showing up in live data.
Questions this data answers
How many Australian companies rated Hard to displace in July 2026? Of the 254 Australian companies assessed in July 2026, 60 rated Hard to displace. The group is dominated by banks, miners, infrastructure owners, major universities and healthcare names such as Cochlear and Sonic Healthcare.
Which Australian companies showed the most competitive pressure? MyDeal.com.au and Catch.com.au both rated Little protection left, the most exposed standing, in July 2026, and both were closed by their owners in 2025 after losing shoppers to Amazon, Temu and Shein. Appen, F45 Training and Ambition Group also rated Little protection left, each with documented revenue or franchise losses.
Are the big Australian banks losing customers to challengers? No evidence of broad share loss appeared in the July 2026 assessment; Commonwealth Bank, NAB and Westpac all rated Hard to displace. The dated watch-item is whether any new entrant takes measurable deposit or mortgage share from the Big Four, which would signal the pattern changing.
Is Australian media exposed to AI search? Nine Entertainment is the clearest documented case: as of July 2026, Google AI Overviews were reducing readers and digital subscription revenue at its mastheads while Stan competed with Netflix, Disney+ and Amazon Prime. Nine rated losing its protection and had already reported job cuts.
What happened to Appen? Appen's Western revenue fell 37% year over year as clients including Google moved frontier AI data-labeling and evaluation work to newer rivals Surge AI and Mercor. It rated Little protection left in the July 2026 assessment.
Watch-items to verify, not conclusions
- By February 2027: whether Appen reports another double-digit year-over-year decline in Western revenue as Surge AI and Mercor keep winning frontier evaluation contracts.
- By June 2027: whether Australia Post reports letter volume declines beyond the 11.5% year-over-year drop already recorded, plus further metro parcel share loss to Amazon Logistics AU.
- By January 2027: whether Nine Entertainment announces cost cuts beyond the 30 job reductions already reported, tied to masthead subscription softness.
- Ongoing: whether Domain Group closes the revenue gap with REA Group below the current 3.5x multiple, and whether a second wave of discount marketplaces or franchise chains closes after MyDeal, Catch and F45.
Assessments reflect evidence available July 2026. Companies change; treat watch-items as things to verify, not conclusions.
Figures are as of each company's assessment date unless dated otherwise.