WillItSurvive

Automattic runs WordPress.com, Tumblr, and WooCommerce, powering roughly 42% of all websites.

Losing its protection
Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from H2 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: WP Engine lawsuit (N.D. Cal. 3:24-cv-06917) trial or settlement
The call

Automattic still sits on top of nearly half the web, but rivals are gaining share every month while the company cuts staff and fights its own hosting partner in court.

Automattic owns WordPress, the software that runs nearly half of all websites on the internet, and makes money from premium add-ons and hosting. The real problem: Wix, Shopify, and Squarespace are taking customers away with easier-to-use tools, and the company's founder has picked public fights with WordPress partners and cut support for the free open-source project that made WordPress valuable in the first place, which is eroding the trust of the community that keeps it strong. The outcome hinges on whether Automattic settles its lawsuit with WP Engine and rebuilds community goodwill, or whether it keeps losing website-creator market share and customer loyalty.

Why
01
AI pressure: AI site builders and coding agents (ChatGPT, Claude, Cursor, Wix ADI). AI agents can now scaffold and edit whole sites directly, cutting into the DIY WordPress base while Jetpack AI stays a commodity add-on. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Wix, Shopify, Squarespace, Webflow. Wix grew 32.6% YoY while WordPress CMS share fell six straight months, from 43.6% to 41.9%. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. 42% of the web already runs on WordPress, and GPL licensing plus WooCommerce distribution make ripping it out costly for site owners.
What would change this call
Ruling or settlement in the WP Engine lawsuit (N.D. Cal. 3:24-cv-06917). Shows whether governance conflict resolves or keeps damaging developer trust.
WordPress CMS market share reading in next few quarterly reports. Shows whether the six-month share decline continues, stabilizes, or reverses.
Announcement of further Automattic layoffs or a Tumblr sale/shutdown. Shows whether cost-cutting and unprofitable-unit pressure keep escalating.
Key numbers
  • WordPress CMS share fell from 43.6% to 41.9% in 6 months (2026-05)
  • Secondary-market value near $1.7B, down 77% from 2021's $7.5B (2026-07)
  • Headcount cut 16% in April 2025, to about 1,495 staff (2025-04)
Named risks
  • Adverse ruling or prolonged litigation in WP Engine case damaging governance and trust. Severity: high
  • Six consecutive months of WordPress CMS share decline eroding core revenue base. Severity: high
  • 99% cut to paid WordPress core contribution hours undermining open-source community goodwill. Severity: high
  • Tumblr remains unprofitable with no resolved strategy, called 'biggest failure' by CEO. Severity: medium
  • Hiring freeze and repeated layoffs (2024, 2025) signal contracting employer stability. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Wixgaining onCMS share up 32.6% YoY as of May 2026 while WordPress share fell
ShopifycontestingCompetes directly with WooCommerce for e-commerce hosting share, ongoing through 2026
Squarespacegaining onAcquired by Permira for $7.2B, Oct 2024, gained CMS share into 2026
Webflowgaining onGained CMS share alongside Wix and Shopify in mid-2025 to May 2026 window
WP EnginecontestingActive federal litigation, Case 3:24-cv-06917, in discovery as of June 2026
Questions people ask
Is Automattic profitable in 2026?
Automattic's core WordPress.com/WooCommerce business is profitable and subsidizes losses elsewhere; estimated 2024 revenue was about $710M, up roughly 11% YoY (per Latka, 2026-07-02). Tumblr, by contrast, is explicitly unprofitable, with CEO Matt Mullenweg calling it 'my biggest failure' in October 2025.
Who owns Automattic and is it public?
Automattic is privately held and controlled by founder-CEO Matt Mullenweg, with no public listing. It has raised roughly $955M-$998M across about 12 rounds; its last disclosed valuation was $7.5B in a February 2021 Series E, though secondary-market trackers put it near $1.7B as of July 2026 (TrueUp).
Could AI replace Automattic or WordPress?
Not easily for infrastructure, but AI is eating add-on features. Automattic shipped MCP write access on March 20, 2026, letting Claude, ChatGPT and Cursor create/edit/publish content directly on WordPress.com sites, positioning WordPress as the system AI writes to rather than a target for replacement, per PR Newswire.
Who is Automattic's biggest competitor right now?
Wix is the fastest-growing rival, with CMS market share up 32.6% year-over-year as of May 2026, while Shopify, Squarespace and Webflow all gained ground in the same window as WordPress's overall CMS share slipped from 43.6% to 41.9% over six straight months, per The Register (2026-06-03).
What is the status of the WP Engine lawsuit against Automattic?
The case (N.D. Cal., 3:24-cv-06917) remains active as of June 2026, in discovery. A February 2026 amended complaint alleges Mullenweg planned to target 10 hosting competitors with 8% royalty demands and pressured Stripe to cancel WP Engine's contract, per TechCrunch (2026-02-12).
Is WordPress losing market share?
Yes. WordPress's share of all websites fell from 43.6% in mid-2025 to 41.9% by May 2026, a sixth consecutive monthly decline, according to The Register (2026-06-03), even as it still powers over 40% of the web overall.
Timeline
  • 2026-06-03The Register reports WordPress CMS share down to 41.9%, six straight months of decline
  • 2026-03-20WordPress.com ships MCP write access letting AI agents publish/edit content directly
  • 2026-02-12Amended WP Engine complaint alleges Mullenweg plan to target 10 hosting rivals with royalties
  • 2025-10-20Mullenweg publicly calls Tumblr 'my biggest failure so far'
  • 2025-10WordPress.com launches read-only MCP server for AI agent visibility
  • 2025-04Automattic lays off about 280 employees (16% of staff) across 90 countries
  • 2025-04AI-powered website builder launches on WordPress.com
  • 2025-01Automattic cuts paid WordPress core contribution hours from ~3,988/week to ~45/week
  • 2024-10159 employees (8.4%) leave via voluntary buyout amid WP Engine dispute
  • 2021-02Automattic raises ~$288M Series E at $7.5B valuation, last disclosed round
Revision history
20 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources