Bajaj Auto
Indian motorcycle, scooter and three-wheeler maker, now full owner of KTM.
On the record
Checkpoint: Resolution of KTM strategic-partner search and Q2 FY27 earnings showing EV share trend
The call
Bajaj is posting record profit and exports while KTM integration and the EV scooter fight with TVS remain open questions.
Bajaj Auto builds motorcycles, three-wheelers, and scooters in India and owns KTM, a European dirt-bike brand. The company prints cash and dominates three-wheelers, but it is facing real competition in electric scooters and motorcycles, especially from TVS Motor, which is selling far more electric two-wheelers right now. The company's Chetak electric scooter is falling behind, and if electric bikes become the main way Indians buy two-wheelers in the next few years while Bajaj stays weak in that market, the company's growth story could stall.
Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. No AI product threatens two-wheeler or three-wheeler manufacturing or Bajaj's dealer network today. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: TVS Motor Company. TVS holds about 26% of India's EV two-wheeler market while Bajaj's Chetak sits in a secondary position near 2.9 lakh units. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. World's largest three-wheeler maker, huge export base, deep dealer network, and cash reserves that fund KTM and buybacks without strain.
What would change this call
Chetak's quarterly EV two-wheeler market share for Q2 and Q3 FY27. If it stays below roughly 15% for two straight quarters, TVS's EV lead is entrenching.
Resolution or continuation of Bajaj's search for a KTM strategic partner. An unresolved search past 6 to 12 months signals ongoing integration and cash-flow strain from KTM.
Bajaj's domestic ICE and EV volume growth in FY27 results versus TVS Motor and Hero MotoCorp. Slower growth than these peers would show real customer share shifting away from Bajaj.
Resolution or continuation of Bajaj's search for a KTM strategic partner. An unresolved search past 6 to 12 months signals ongoing integration and cash-flow strain from KTM.
Bajaj's domestic ICE and EV volume growth in FY27 results versus TVS Motor and Hero MotoCorp. Slower growth than these peers would show real customer share shifting away from Bajaj.
Key numbers
- Q1 FY27 standalone revenue up 37% to Rs 17,244 crore
- Exports grew 54% in Q1 FY27, a record
- Chetak sold about 2.9 lakh units in FY26 vs TVS's 26% EV share
Named risks
- KTM strategic partner search unresolved as of July 2026, integration status ambiguous.
- Ransomware attack (June 2026) cut product availability 10-15% in exports, EVs, high-end bikes.
- TVS Motor leads EV segment at ~25.9% share while Chetak remains secondary, threatening EV growth thesis.
- Domestic ICE motorcycle share erosion to TVS could compound with EV segment pressure.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| TVS Motor Company | gaining on | TVS motorcycle share rose 15.15% to 19.64% between Dec 2021 and Feb 2026 |
| TVS Motor Company | gaining on | TVS leads EV two-wheeler segment at ~25.9% share (H1 2026) vs Bajaj's secondary Chetak |
| Hero MotoCorp | contesting | Hero share fell 33.63% to 27.16% (Feb to Jun 2026); both Hero and Bajaj ceding ground to TVS |
| Ather Energy | contesting | TVS, Bajaj, Hero and Ather together held 96% of EV two-wheeler registrations as of Jul 2026 |
Questions people ask
- Is Bajaj Auto profitable in 2026?
- Yes. In Q1 FY27 (quarter to June 2026) Bajaj Auto posted standalone PAT of ₹2,983 crore, up 42% YoY, on standalone revenue of ₹17,244 crore, up 37% YoY, its strongest quarter in company history, reported 2026-07-21.
- Is Bajaj Auto doing layoffs?
- At the KTM/Bajaj Mobility Group level, headcount fell from 5,310 (Dec 2024) to 3,794 (Dec 2025), with about 500 salaried and middle-management roles cut as a cost-efficiency measure, announced 2026-01-28. Bajaj Auto Ltd standalone has not disclosed comparable layoffs.
- Could AI replace Bajaj Auto?
- No. Bajaj Auto's moat is physical: manufacturing plants being expanded toward 9 million units annual capacity and a 6,000-plus dealership network, none replicable by software. AI use is limited to factory cobots and a conventional CRM platform (LeadSquared), not frontier AI, as of 2026-07-13.
- Who is Bajaj Auto's biggest competitor?
- TVS Motor Company is the sharpest rival, having lifted motorcycle share from 15.15% to 19.64% between December 2021 and February 2026, and leading the EV two-wheeler segment with about 25.9% share in H1 2026 versus Bajaj's secondary Chetak.
- Who owns Bajaj Auto?
- Bajaj Auto Limited is publicly listed on the BSE (532977) and NSE (BAJAJ-AUTO), part of the diversified Bajaj Group founded in 1945 by Jamnalal Bajaj. Its market capitalization was roughly ₹2.9 trillion (about $34-35bn) as of 2026-07-16, up about 26% year on year.
- Did Bajaj Auto fully acquire KTM?
- Yes. Via its Netherlands subsidiary Bajaj Auto International Holdings BV, Bajaj Auto completed an €800 million deal converting its long-held 49.9% stake into 100% control, closing 2025-11-18 and giving it about 74.9% of what is now Bajaj Mobility AG.
Timeline
- 2026-07-22Bajaj Auto announces plan to raise annual capacity from ~7 million to over 9 million vehicles
- 2026-07-21Q1 FY27 results: standalone PAT up 42% to ₹2,983 crore, revenue up 37%, exports up 54%
- 2026-07-21Management says Bajaj is open to a strategic partner for KTM
- 2026-06-24Record date for ₹5,632 crore share buyback tender offer
- 2026-06-23Ransomware attack disclosed hitting Bajaj Auto and Bajaj Auto Technology Ltd
- 2026-01-28Bajaj Mobility Group announces ~500 layoffs at KTM parent for cost efficiency
- 2025-11-18Bajaj Auto completes €800 million deal for 100% control of KTM's parent
- 2025-05-29FY25 standalone revenue reported at record ~₹52,468 crore, up ~12% YoY
- 2025-04-08Chetak tops Q4 FY25 e-scooter sales with 29% market share
Revision history
25 July 2026
First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Bajaj Auto Q1 results (2026-07-21)
- Bajaj Auto Q1 net profit surges 46% (2026-07-21)
- Bajaj Auto Delivers Record Q1 (2026-07-21)
- BAJAJ_AUTO Market Cap & Net Worth (2026-07-16)
- Bajaj Auto Posts Record Rs. 50,000 Cr Revenue in FY25 (2025-05-29)
- Bajaj Auto shares fall 2% as firm, subsidiary fall prey to ransomware attack (2026-06-23)
- KTM revival on? Bajaj Auto completes 100% takeover: Details (2025-11-20)
- Bajaj Auto open for a strategic partner for KTM (2026-07-21)
- Rajiv Bajaj says ability to adapt (2026-07-21)
- Bajaj Chetak Electric Scooter Sales Cross 5 Lakh Mark In India (2025-09-22)
- TVS gains as Hero, Bajaj lose share (2026-03-24)
- TVS, Bajaj, Hero and Ather corner 96% (2026-07-14)