Is Improbable profitable in 2026?

Improbable posted its first-ever profit of £11-13M in FY2023, but that was driven largely by one-time proceeds from selling MPG and its defence unit. FY2024 group revenue then collapsed to just £10M as revenue shifted to independent ventures, so no clear recurring parent profitability exists as of the FY2024 filing.

Could AI replace Improbable's engineering work?

Improbable's original moat, distributed-systems engineering for large-scale simulation, is increasingly commoditized by cloud providers, Unity/Unreal, and AI-driven procedural world-building and NPC automation. The company itself pivoted in February 2026 toward positioning its Somnia blockchain as 'AI-native' infrastructure rather than defending the original engineering moat.

Improbable Worlds Limited is a private UK company founded in 2012 by Herman Narula and Rob Whitehead, backed since 2015 by Andreessen Horowitz, Horizons Ventures and Temasek, with SoftBank investing $502M in May 2017 at roughly a $1 billion valuation.

Has Improbable had layoffs?

Yes. Improbable cut about 95 staff (roughly 10%) in December 2022, followed by around 60 more layoffs referenced in 2024 reporting, shrinking the core parent team to roughly 60 people by 2024-2026 after also divesting MPG (~360 staff) and its defence unit (~70 staff) in 2023.

Who is Improbable's biggest competitor?

In metaverse infrastructure, Improbable's MSquared venture explicitly positions itself against Meta's Horizon Worlds and Roblox as 'walled garden' incumbents. Its Somnia blockchain, which launched mainnet on September 2, 2025, competes with Ethereum and Solana for high-throughput Layer-1 blockchain use cases.

What is Somnia and is its valuation real revenue for Improbable?

Somnia is a Layer-1 blockchain built by Improbable and operated by an independent Somnia Foundation, which launched mainnet on September 2, 2025. Improbable has reported a Fully Diluted Valuation reaching $1.9B by February 2026, but this figure is company-reported and unaudited, not confirmed group revenue.

United Kingdom · United Kingdom

Improbable

UK metaverse tech firm turned venture builder, now betting on crypto gaming project Somnia.

Little protection left

Assessed 30 July 2026 · Evidence as of 30 July 2026

Not much stands between this business and its pressures.

On the recordSince 30 July 2026 · Checkable from mid-to-late 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: FY2025 Companies House filing, testing whether revenue recovers past one-off exit proceeds

The call

Improbable sold off the businesses that made it a unicorn and now runs on cash reserves and a crypto project whose value is mostly unproven.

Improbable builds distributed systems software for online worlds and games. It is relatively easy to copy or replace because Meta, Roblox, and major cloud companies now offer similar tools, and artificial intelligence can now automatically create game worlds and characters that used to require Improbable's specialized engineering. The company's value rests almost entirely on Somnia, a crypto-based project that has not yet generated real money from actual users, only claimed value based on test transactions, so if those transactions do not turn into real spending when the project fully launches, the company's justification disappears.

Why

AI pressure: Generative world-building and NPC tools from Unity, Unreal, and cloud AI platforms. AI-driven procedural world generation and cloud tooling now do cheaply what Improbable's distributed-systems tech once charged for. Could AI do the core job? Yes, likely.

Bigger players: Meta (Horizon Worlds), Roblox, and Ethereum/Solana for Somnia's blockchain layer. Meta and Roblox already run live virtual-world platforms, and Solana/Ethereum already run live high-throughput chains Somnia must out-compete. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.

What protects it. A £162.8M cash pile from past venture sales, giving it years of runway to keep pivoting without needing revenue soon.

What would change this call

Improbable's FY2025 Companies House filing (due mid-late 2026) shows recurring revenue above or below £20M. Whether the parent has a real ongoing business or is just a shrinking shell living off exit cash.
Somnia mainnet publishes independently verified on-chain fees and dApp retention data post-launch. Whether Somnia's $1-1.9B FDV reflects real usage or unproven crypto hype.
A crypto market downturn occurs and Somnia's valuation or activity is tracked through it. Whether Somnia's traction survives a cycle or was purely speculation-driven.

Key numbers

FY2024 group revenue fell to £10M from £66M (FY2024)
Cash position stood at £162.8M (FY2024)
Core team shrank to about 60 people from peak ~1,000 (2024-2026)

Named risks

Parent group revenue collapsed to £10M in FY2024 with no clear recurring core business. Severity: high
Somnia and MSquared valuations depend on crypto-cycle sentiment rather than audited economic activity. Severity: high
Founder Herman Narula sanctioned by Russia over prior Ukraine defence work, per 2025 statement. Severity: medium
Key traction figures (FDV, testnet transactions, TPS) are vendor-reported and unaudited. Severity: medium
Headcount has shrunk from peak 700-1,000 to about 60 core staff, reducing engineering capacity. Severity: medium

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Meta (Horizon Worlds)	losing to	MSquared positions itself against Meta's 'walled garden' as of 2025 blog post
Roblox	losing to	Publicly traded UGC platform dwarfs Improbable's metaverse ventures as of 2025-2026
Ethereum and Solana	contesting	Somnia mainnet launched September 2, 2025 claiming faster throughput for consumer apps
Unity and Unreal Engine, cloud providers	gaining on	Commoditizing distributed-systems engineering that was Improbable's original SpatialOS moat

Questions people ask

Is Improbable profitable in 2026?: Improbable posted its first-ever profit of £11-13M in FY2023, but that was driven largely by one-time proceeds from selling MPG and its defence unit. FY2024 group revenue then collapsed to just £10M as revenue shifted to independent ventures, so no clear recurring parent profitability exists as of the FY2024 filing.
Could AI replace Improbable's engineering work?: Improbable's original moat, distributed-systems engineering for large-scale simulation, is increasingly commoditized by cloud providers, Unity/Unreal, and AI-driven procedural world-building and NPC automation. The company itself pivoted in February 2026 toward positioning its Somnia blockchain as 'AI-native' infrastructure rather than defending the original engineering moat.
Who owns Improbable?: Improbable Worlds Limited is a private UK company founded in 2012 by Herman Narula and Rob Whitehead, backed since 2015 by Andreessen Horowitz, Horizons Ventures and Temasek, with SoftBank investing $502M in May 2017 at roughly a $1 billion valuation.
Has Improbable had layoffs?: Yes. Improbable cut about 95 staff (roughly 10%) in December 2022, followed by around 60 more layoffs referenced in 2024 reporting, shrinking the core parent team to roughly 60 people by 2024-2026 after also divesting MPG (~360 staff) and its defence unit (~70 staff) in 2023.
Who is Improbable's biggest competitor?: In metaverse infrastructure, Improbable's MSquared venture explicitly positions itself against Meta's Horizon Worlds and Roblox as 'walled garden' incumbents. Its Somnia blockchain, which launched mainnet on September 2, 2025, competes with Ethereum and Solana for high-throughput Layer-1 blockchain use cases.
What is Somnia and is its valuation real revenue for Improbable?: Somnia is a Layer-1 blockchain built by Improbable and operated by an independent Somnia Foundation, which launched mainnet on September 2, 2025. Improbable has reported a Fully Diluted Valuation reaching $1.9B by February 2026, but this figure is company-reported and unaudited, not confirmed group revenue.

Timeline

2026-02-12Improbable appoints new CMO, rebrands Somnia as 'AI-native'/Agentic L1 infrastructure
2025-12-02FY2024 filing shows £162.8M cash, 12-venture portfolio, £17M invested in early-stage companies
2025-09-02Somnia blockchain mainnet launches after testnet
2025-04MSquared launches 'Chunked', a fully on-chain browser MMO
2025-02Improbable raises cumulative Somnia ecosystem investment to $270M; devnet claims over 1M TPS
2024-07-24Improbable reports FY2023 first profit of £11-13M on £66M revenue
2023-12MPG games-services business sold for £76.5M, about 360 staff transferred
2023-06Defence and National Security business sold, about 70 staff transferred, UK MoD contracts exited
2022-12Improbable lays off about 95 staff, roughly 10% of headcount
2022-04-07MSquared raises $150M at a $1B valuation from a16z, SoftBank, DCG and others

Revision history

30 July 2026

First assessed. Little protection left. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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