WillItSurvive

Moore Threads

Chinese GPU maker building AI and graphics chips inside a state-protected market.

Losing its protection
Assessed 24 July 2026 · Evidence as of 24 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 24 July 2026 · Checkable from Q3 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2/Q3 2026 earnings, testing whether Q1 2026's 29M yuan profit repeats or was a one-off
The call

Moore Threads grows fast behind a policy wall that keeps Nvidia partly out, but inside that wall Huawei and Cambricon already sell more and earn more.

Moore Threads makes computer chips for artificial intelligence, sold mainly in China where it is shielded from Nvidia by US trade restrictions. However, the company is actually the third biggest player in its own protected market, behind Huawei Ascend and Cambricon, which are both larger and more profitable. The biggest risk is that the protective trade wall could disappear if US and Chinese politics shift, or that Beijing decides to support one Chinese champion instead of letting multiple companies compete.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. Moore Threads sells hardware for AI workloads rather than a product AI models threaten to replace. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Nvidia. Nvidia still holds about 54% of China's AI chip market despite Entity List curbs, out-selling Moore Threads inside its own home turf. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. US Entity List and Chinese state procurement rules keep Nvidia out of a big slice of China's AI buildout, funneling deals to domestic chips like Moore Threads'.
What would change this call
Moore Threads reports Q2/Q3 2026 earnings. Shows whether Q1 2026's 29M yuan profit was repeatable or a one-off.
Beijing issues AI-chip procurement guidance favoring Huawei and Cambricon. Would show state consolidation squeezing Moore Threads out of top-tier deals.
US-China policy talks on Entity List or export controls conclude in 2026. Easing lets Nvidia re-enter China; tightening could hit Moore Threads' supply chain.
Key numbers
  • TTM revenue about 1.95 billion yuan (2026-07-16)
  • Q1 2026 net profit 29.36 million yuan, first profitable quarter (2026-04-28)
  • IPO raised over $1 billion at 114.28 yuan a share (2025-12-05)
Named risks
  • US-China policy thaw could let Nvidia re-enter meaningfully, eroding the regulatory wall that shields sales. Severity: high
  • Beijing could consolidate AI-chip procurement around Huawei and Cambricon, sidelining smaller Dragons. Severity: high
  • Q1 2026 profitability of 29.36M yuan may be a one-off; company was loss-making for full 2025. Severity: medium
  • MUSA/CUDA software compatibility gap versus Nvidia remains unproven at scale for developers. Severity: medium
  • Post-IPO stock volatility, down 17.6% week-over-week mid-July 2026, tied to sector sentiment swings. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Nvidialosing toNvidia holds ~54% of China's AI-chip market despite sanctions, as of late 2025 per 36kr
Huawei (Ascend)losing toHuawei holds over 20% China AI-chip share versus Moore Threads' small fraction, late 2025
Cambriconlosing toCambricon posted 2.885B yuan revenue and 1.013B yuan profit in Q1 2026 vs Moore Threads' 29M yuan profit
MetaX, Biren, EnflamecontestingAll three IPO'd within weeks of Moore Threads (Dec 2025-Jan 2026), repricing the whole domestic GPU sector
Questions people ask
Is Moore Threads profitable in 2026?
Moore Threads posted a narrow net profit of 29.36 million yuan in Q1 2026, its first profitable quarter, after a loss of about 277 million yuan the prior quarter. Full-year 2025 remained loss-making despite 1.3 billion yuan in R&D spend, per TrendForce reporting April 28, 2026.
Who owns Moore Threads?
Moore Threads is a Chinese fabless GPU maker founded October 2020 by ex-Nvidia China VP Zhang Jianzhong. It IPO'd on Shanghai's STAR Market December 5, 2025; DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng was reportedly its top institutional shareholder at listing, per Wikipedia, July 2026.
Can AI replace Moore Threads?
No. Moore Threads makes the GPU hardware and clusters that AI models run on, so it is infrastructure, not a service AI could substitute. The main risk instead is rival domestic chipmakers or a Nvidia re-entry displacing it, plus efficiency gains cutting raw compute demand.
Who is Moore Threads' biggest competitor?
Domestically, Huawei Ascend holds over 20% of China's AI-chip market versus Moore Threads' sub-1% share, and Cambricon is already profitable with 2.885 billion yuan Q1 2026 revenue and 1.013 billion yuan net profit, per TrendForce, April 28, 2026. Nvidia still holds roughly 54% of China's AI-chip market despite sanctions.
How big is Moore Threads' market cap after its IPO?
Moore Threads' market capitalization reached approximately 282 billion yuan (about $40 billion) as of mid-to-late July 2026, per gurufocus.com, July 24, 2026, following a stock debut that surged 400-468% on December 5, 2025.
Does Moore Threads' GPU software match Nvidia's CUDA?
Moore Threads' MUSA architecture and 'Musify' tool aim for CUDA compatibility, but independent 2023 benchmarks found its MTT S80 card underperforming an older Nvidia GTX 1050 Ti, per aiwiki.ai, June 24, 2026, indicating software maturity gaps versus Nvidia's ecosystem remain unresolved.
Timeline
  • 2026-07-07Moore Threads GPUs used alongside Huawei, MetaX chips training Meituan's 1.6T-param LongCat-2.0 model
  • 2026-04-28Q1 2026 net profit 29.36M yuan reported, first profitable quarter, per TrendForce
  • 2026-03-30Won 660M yuan KUAE cluster order, equal to ~55% of FY2024 revenue
  • 2026-02-04Launched 'AI Coding Plan' developer tool bundled with MTT S5000
  • 2025-12-05IPO'd on Shanghai STAR Market at 114.28 yuan/share, raising over $1 billion
  • 2025-12-01Unveiled next-gen 'Huagang' GPU architecture, ran DeepSeek R1 671B inference on MTT S5000
  • 2023-11-16Reuters reported Series B+ valuation of roughly $3.4 billion
  • 2023-10-24US Entity List export controls on semiconductor manufacturing items took effect
  • 2020-10-01Founded by ex-Nvidia China VP Zhang Jianzhong with Zhang Yubo and Zhou Yuan
Revision history
24 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources