WillItSurvive
Consumer brands · United States

New Balance

US athletic footwear/apparel maker, 95% family owned, made partly in USA/UK.

Hard to displace
Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026
Strong structural protection; the business model survives ai pressure.
On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from H2 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Section 122 tariff appeal ruling affecting UK Flimby factory costs
The call

New Balance keeps growing fast on domestic manufacturing and family control, while On Running's faster growth and Nike's AI shopping tools test that lead.

New Balance makes athletic shoes and sells them mainly in the United States and United Kingdom. The company is hard to compete with because it manufactures shoes domestically, which lets it charge premium prices and build loyal relationships with specialty shoe stores. Nike and Adidas could theoretically copy this strategy, but it would cost them so much money to move factories from Asia that it would wreck their entire business model. However, On Running is growing almost twice as fast as New Balance and stealing younger customers in the performance running market, and Nike is already experimenting with AI shopping assistants that New Balance has not publicly adopted, which could shift how people discover and buy shoes online.

Why
01
AI pressure: Nike's Gemini-powered AI Mode shopping agent. Nike's AI shopping agents already route buyers before New Balance shows up in AI-driven product searches. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Nike and Adidas. Nike and Adidas can't reshore manufacturing fast enough to match New Balance's Made-in-USA/UK premium pricing. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. 95% family ownership, no outside investors, USA/UK factories, and deep specialty-retail ties give pricing power rivals can't quickly copy.
What would change this call
On Running's running-segment share vs NB in Piper Sandler teen surveys over next 2-3 surveys. Shows whether On's growth-rate edge is converting into actual share loss for NB.
NB's 2026 revenue lands at or below $10B target vs prior 19% growth pace. Indicates whether growth momentum is holding or decelerating.
Section 122 tariff appeal ruling in H2 2026. Determines whether NB's Made-in-USA cost advantage over Nike/Adidas holds or erodes.
Key numbers
  • $9.2B 2025 global sales, up 19% YoY (2026-02-19)
  • 5th straight year of double-digit growth (2026-02-19)
  • On Running grew 43% YoY vs NB's 19% (2025)
Named risks
  • Section 122 tariff ruling under appeal creates cost uncertainty for UK and imported-component products. Severity: medium
  • Jim Davis's political donations, including $1M to a 2025 Boston mayoral PAC, could trigger consumer boycotts. Severity: medium
  • On Running and Hoka growing faster than NB in running, with teen preference shifting toward On per Piper Sandler. Severity: medium
  • No public AI-powered shopping/discovery channel to match Nike's May 2026 Google Gemini integration. Severity: low
  • Employee headcount figures diverge widely across sources (9,725 vs 14,000), signaling reporting inconsistency. Severity: low
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
On Runninggaining onGrew ~43% YoY in 2025 vs New Balance's 19%; gaining teen preference per Piper Sandler survey, 2026
Nikelosing toGlobal share estimated 20-30% and declining per YipitData 2026 as it retreats from specialty retail NB absorbed
AdidascontestingHolds an estimated 16-19% global share, also gaining as Nike retreats, 2026
Hoka (Deckers)gaining onReported 11-18% recent revenue growth in the premium running category, 2026
Questions people ask
Is New Balance profitable in 2026?
New Balance does not disclose net profit as a private company, but it reported $9.2B in global sales for 2025, up 19% year over year, marking a fifth straight year of double-digit growth, and says it self-funds expansion from cash flow, as of February 19, 2026.
Who owns New Balance?
New Balance is privately held, with Chairman Jim Davis and his family owning roughly 95% of the company. Davis bought the six-employee firm in 1972 for about $100,000; Joe Preston has served as President and CEO since 2018.
Is On Running or Nike the bigger threat to New Balance?
On Running is the faster-growing threat, posting roughly 43% year-over-year growth in 2025 versus New Balance's 19% and gaining teen preference per a Piper Sandler survey (2026), while Nike's global share (estimated 20-30%) is described as declining per YipitData analysis in 2026.
Could AI replace New Balance's manufacturing or design jobs?
New Balance has discussed AI-driven demand forecasting reshaping planner roles into 'demand analyst' positions (Pigment blog, April 2026), but its domestic US/UK manufacturing, athlete sponsorships, and specialty-retail relationships remain largely AI-immune as of mid-2026.
Is it a good time to join New Balance?
New Balance reported $9.2B in 2025 sales (up 19% YoY), opened 80 new stores globally that year, and is targeting $10B for 2026; Revelio Labs counted 9,725 employees as of December 2025, up 11.3% year over year, indicating active growth.
Does New Balance still make shoes in the USA?
Yes. As of February 2026, New Balance operates five factories in New England, including Skowhegan and Norway, Maine, and a newer Londonderry, New Hampshire facility, plus one factory in Flimby, UK, serving the European market.
Timeline
  • 2026-06-23New Balance x Miu Miu campaign with Coco Gauff launches; company press cites 14,000 associates globally
  • 2026-05-21Court of International Trade's rejection of Section 122 tariffs reported, appeal pending
  • 2026-05-07Section 122 global 10% tariffs ruled unlawful by Court of International Trade
  • 2026-05Nike ships AI-powered shopping via Google Gemini and AI Mode, a channel gap for New Balance
  • 2026-02-19New Balance reports $9.2B in 2025 global sales, up 19% year over year
  • 2026-02-18CEO Joe Preston sets public target of $10B revenue for 2026
  • 2025-12Revelio Labs counts 9,725 New Balance employees, up 11.3% year over year
  • 2025New Balance opens 80 new stores globally; owned-retail and apparel businesses each exceed $1B for first time
  • 2025Jim Davis donates $1M to a 2025 Boston mayoral race PAC
  • 2018Joe Preston becomes President and CEO of New Balance
Revision history
23 July 2026
First assessed. Hard to displace. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources