WillItSurvive
Food tech and alternative protein · subsidiary of New Hope Group Co., Ltd. · China

New Hope Liuhe

Chinese feed, hog breeding, and pork processing giant, listed in Shenzhen.

Losing its protection
Assessed 26 July 2026 · Evidence as of 26 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 26 July 2026 · Checkable from 28 Aug 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings release, to show whether losses are narrowing as hog prices move
The call

A huge, physically entrenched pork and feed operator that is currently losing money and losing scale ground to Muyuan while hog prices stay weak.

New Hope Liuhe raises hogs and makes feed and pork products in China at a massive scale, but it is currently losing money because hog prices have fallen and it cannot cut costs fast enough to keep up. Its main rival, Muyuan Foods, is bigger and more efficient, which means Muyuan can survive low prices longer than New Hope can. The company probably will not disappear soon because the Chinese government needs it to supply pork and has given it licenses and land that are hard to replace, but its profits depend entirely on whether hog prices rise again, not on anything New Hope can fix on its own.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. Hog farming and feed milling are physical, land- and license-bound businesses; no AI product displaces that today. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: Muyuan Foods. Muyuan sold 6.23M hogs in June 2026 versus New Hope's 1.37M, widening the scale and cost gap in a loss-making market. Could a giant copy it? Probably.
03
What protects it. Licenses, land-use rights, and biosecurity infrastructure make it systemically important to China's pork supply, hard to replace fast.
What would change this call
New Hope's Q2 2026 earnings (due ~28 Aug 2026) compared to Q1's CNY898M net loss. Shows whether losses are narrowing or the cost gap to Muyuan is widening.
Monthly hog-sales volume reports for New Hope vs Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff through 2026. Reveals whether New Hope's market-share gap to the top two rivals is closing or growing.
Whether New Hope declares any dividend for FY2026, likely disclosed in H1 2027. Would confirm the core hog business has financially stabilized.
Key numbers
  • Q1 2026 net loss: CNY 897.7 million (2026-06-26)
  • June 2026 hogs sold: 1.37M vs Muyuan's 6.23M (2026-07-22)
  • Chinese hog prices hit 7-year low (2026-03-26)
Named risks
  • Sustained low Chinese hog prices keep New Hope's core hog business unprofitable. Severity: high
  • Widening volume and cost gap versus scale leader Muyuan Foods. Severity: high
  • No FY2025 dividend signals balance-sheet strain and limited financial cushion. Severity: medium
  • US-China trade tension raising soybean import costs, a major feed input. Severity: medium
  • Discrepancies between third-party revenue figures (CNY 106.86B vs 102.89B) complicate financial tracking. Severity: low
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Muyuan Foodslosing toSold 6.23M hogs in June 2026 vs New Hope's 1.37M, per Dongxing Securities note dated 2026-07-22
Muyuan Foodslosing toMuyuan completed $1.7B HK secondary listing Feb 2026, giving fresh capital New Hope lacks
Wens Foodstuff Grouplosing toWens sold 2.57M hogs in June 2026, nearly double New Hope's 1.37M
Charoen Pokphand (CP Group)contestingLongstanding rival in Asian feed and integrated protein markets since at least 1998
Questions people ask
Is New Hope Liuhe profitable in 2026?
No. Q1 2026 net loss attributable to shareholders was about CNY 897.7 million, versus a CNY 444.7 million profit a year earlier, driven by weak hog prices. FY2025 also ended in loss with no dividend declared, as reported by Quartr on 2026-06-26.
Who owns New Hope Liuhe?
The Liu Yonghao family controls New Hope Liuhe through New Hope Group Co., Ltd. and Sichuan South Hope Industrial Co., Ltd., holding roughly 54% as of the 2024 semi-annual report. Daughter Liu Chang has chaired the company since 2013, per Bloomberg Billionaires Index data from 2024-10-18.
Who is New Hope Liuhe's biggest competitor?
Muyuan Foods. In June 2026 Muyuan sold about 6.23 million hogs versus New Hope's 1.37 million, a roughly 4.5x volume gap, per a Dongxing Securities note reported 2026-07-22. Muyuan also raised $1.7B in a Hong Kong listing in February 2026.
Could AI replace New Hope Liuhe's business?
Unlikely to replace the core business. New Hope's moat is physical and regulatory: land-use rights, biosecurity infrastructure, farm/slaughter licenses, and a national feed-distribution network. AI tools like automated feeding or monitoring could improve efficiency but cannot substitute for these barriers as of 2026.
Has New Hope Liuhe sold off any businesses recently?
Yes. In December 2023 it divested 51% of its poultry unit (Shandong Zhongxin Food) for CNY 2.7 billion and 67% of its food-processing unit for CNY 1.5 billion, raising about $600 million to repair its balance sheet after hog-farming losses, per Bloomberg and The Poultry Site.
When does New Hope Liuhe report next earnings?
Its Q2 2026 earnings are scheduled for around August 28, 2026, per Quartr's investor relations summary dated 2026-06-26. This report will show whether losses are narrowing as Chinese hog prices recover from their March 2026 near seven-year low.
Timeline
  • 2026-08-28Q2 2026 earnings scheduled, key test of whether losses are narrowing
  • 2026-07-22June 2026 hog sales: New Hope 1.37M head vs Muyuan 6.23M, Wens 2.57M
  • 2026-07-10Chinese hog prices recover to roughly RMB 10.9/kg from March lows
  • 2026-07-07IFC discloses up to $150M loan to New Hope Singapore for overseas feed mills
  • 2026-06-26Q1 2026 results: revenue up 11.77% but net loss of CNY 897.7 million
  • 2026-03-26Chinese hog prices hit near seven-year low amid sector-wide losses
  • 2024-12H2 2024 net profit improves 90% y/y after poultry/food divestment
  • 2024-11New Hope inaugurates postdoctoral research workstation for feed R&D
  • 2023-12-18New Hope agrees to sell 51% of poultry unit for CNY 2.7 billion
  • 2023-12-18New Hope agrees to sell 67% of food-processing unit for CNY 1.5 billion
Revision history
26 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
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