WillItSurvive
IT services and system integrators · United States

Amentum Holdings

amentum.com ↗

Runs engineering, IT, and support services for the US government at nuclear, space, and defense sites.

Defensible for now
Assessed 20 July 2026 · Evidence as of 20 July 2026
Real protection, with named pressure against it.
On the recordSince 20 July 2026 · Checkable from August 11, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q3 FY2026 earnings release
The call

Amentum sits on a large, sticky federal backlog protected by clearances and site lock-in, but thin margins and heavy debt leave the stock exposed to budget swings and peer competition from Leidos.

Amentum does engineering and operations work for the U.S. government, especially at nuclear and space sites where security clearances and past performance lock out competitors. The company is hard to replace in those specific jobs because the government already knows it, regulators trust it, and switching costs are high. However, Amentum makes almost no profit on its contracts (less than 1 cent per dollar of sales), carries $4 billion in debt against a $5 billion stock value, and grows slowly. If the federal government cuts spending, reduces orders from that backlog, or demands lower prices, Amentum's thin margins leave little room to absorb the hit, and debt payments could become a real problem.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI mostly feeds Amentum's pipeline now, like the $77M GSA/INDOPACOM AI-logistics deal, rather than threatening its work. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Leidos. Leidos is bigger, chases the same federal contracts, and has filed GAO bid protests that slow Amentum's award timing. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. Security clearances, past-performance requirements, and physical incumbency at sites like Oak Ridge and Cape Canaveral keep new bidders out.
What would change this call
Amentum's book-to-bill ratio falls below 1.0x for two straight quarters. Would show new contract wins failing to keep pace with work being completed, eroding backlog.
GAO ruling on Leidos's bid protests against Amentum contract awards. Would show whether Amentum keeps or loses contested federal contracts to a larger rival.
Savannah River Site AI data-center lease with NNSA moves from negotiation to signed contract. Would show Amentum successfully diversifying revenue beyond core federal services work.
Key numbers
  • $47.8B backlog, 1.2x book-to-bill (2026-05-31)
  • $4.0B gross debt vs ~$5B market cap (2026-06-02)
  • Stock down 28.7% YTD (2026-07-31)
Named risks
  • Federal budget contraction or government shutdown disrupting contract funding and cash flow. Severity: high
  • $4.0 billion gross debt against roughly $5.0 billion market cap creates refinancing and rate exposure. Severity: high
  • False Claims Act qui tam suit alleging subcontract-stacking proceeding past motions to dismiss as of Nov 2025. Severity: medium
  • Sub-1% net margins limit buffer against cost overruns or contract losses. Severity: medium
  • Oligopoly consolidation among peers (e.g. Leidos-Booz Allen merger scenario) could leave Amentum subscale. Severity: low
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Leidosgaining onAbout $11.7B 2025 federal-IT revenue vs Amentum's $4.14B tracked obligations; filed GAO bid protests in 2026
Booz Allen HamiltoncontestingAbout $10.1B 2025 federal-IT revenue, ranked above Amentum on Washington Technology Top 100 as of July 2026
SAICcontestingNamed peer competitor in Amentum SEC filings within federal engineering and IT services
CACI InternationalcontestingNamed peer in Amentum SEC filings competing for cleared federal IT and intelligence contracts
Questions people ask
Is Amentum Holdings profitable in 2026?
Yes but thin. Amentum reported FY2025 net income of about $66 million on $14.4 billion revenue (under 1% margin), and Q2 FY2026 net income of $54 million on $3.5 billion revenue as of May 2026, per company results.
Is Amentum doing layoffs?
WARN Act tracking shows 62 layoff notices totaling 3,798 workers across 17 states from March 2020 through May 2026, including a 36-employee cut in Suitland/Hartsdale, MD in May 2026, though these appear tied to contract transitions.
Could AI replace Amentum's business?
Unlikely for its core work. Amentum's cleared, nuclear, and launch-range operations are regulation-locked and physical, while AI is currently a tailwind: it won a $77M AI-enabled logistics contract in June 2026 and entered talks for a 1-GW AI data center at Savannah River Site in July 2026.
Who is Amentum's biggest competitor?
Leidos, the larger federal-IT incumbent with about $11.7 billion in 2025 federal-IT revenue versus Amentum's $4.14 billion tracked obligations, and which has actively filed GAO bid protests against Amentum contract awards as of 2026.
Who owns Amentum Holdings?
Amentum has traded publicly on the NYSE as AMTM since September 24, 2024. As of Q3 2025, American Securities LLC was the largest shareholder with about 18.5% of shares (roughly 45 million shares, worth about $1.06 billion).
How much debt does Amentum carry?
Amentum held about $4.0 billion in gross debt as of Q2 FY2026 (May 2026), against a market capitalization of roughly $5.0 to $5.05 billion; in May 2026 it issued a $1.4 billion Term Loan A to refinance and reprice its Term Loan B.
Timeline
  • 2026-07-20Selected by DOE NNSA to negotiate 1-GW AI data center lease at Savannah River Site
  • 2026-06-17Secured $77M GSA/INDOPACOM AI-powered supply-chain logistics contract
  • 2026-06-03Debuted on Fortune 500 list at #313
  • 2026-05-11Q2 FY2026 results: $47.8B backlog, 1.2x book-to-bill, $1.4B Term Loan A refinancing
  • 2025-11-19FCA qui tam suit Josephs v. Amentum survives partial motion to dismiss
  • 2025-06-30Divested Rapid Solutions business to Lockheed Martin for $360M
  • 2025-05-31Awarded $4B, 10-year U.S. Space Force launch range contract
  • 2024-09-24Began trading on NYSE as AMTM, joined S&P 500
  • 2024-03-31Completed merger with Jacobs Critical Mission Solutions and Cyber Intelligence units
Revision history
20 July 2026
First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
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