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Industrial materials and energy · United States

Ameresco

ameresco.com ↗

Ameresco builds and owns energy efficiency, renewable, and microgrid projects for governments and utilities.

Protection under test
Assessed 25 July 2026 · Evidence as of 25 July 2026
Something worth protecting exists and is being tested right now.
On the recordSince 25 July 2026 · Checkable from August 3, 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q2 2026 earnings, next test of margin conversion and GAAP profitability
The call

Ameresco keeps growing revenue and backlog, but profit has not caught up, leaving its stock well below past levels.

Ameresco builds solar farms, renewable-gas plants, and microgrids for customers, earning revenue through long-term contracts. The problem is that huge competitors like Siemens and Johnson Controls can easily move into this business, and Ameresco has not stopped them, so Ameresco must win through better execution or lower costs, not by owning something they cannot copy. The key question: will the company finally turn its growing backlog of promised work into actual profits in the next year or two, or will margins keep getting squeezed like they have been for the past five years?

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI data-center power demand feeds Ameresco's microgrid backlog (NAS Lemoore, CyrusOne) rather than threatens its business. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Siemens, Johnson Controls, Schneider Electric. These much larger firms already sell competing energy-efficiency and microgrid services in the same public and utility markets. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. Long-term government, utility, and performance contracts plus owned RNG and project-finance assets keep it embedded once work starts.
What would change this call
Ameresco's Q2/Q3 2026 earnings show sustained GAAP profitability or continued net losses. Indicates whether backlog is converting into real profit or margins keep eroding.
Outcome of the Southern California Edison litigation filed April 2026. A loss could signal contract or liability risk pressuring future revenue and margins.
NAS Lemoore 100MW AI data-center microgrid comes online as planned in 2027. Tests whether Ameresco can execute large new-market projects profitably against bigger rivals.
Key numbers
  • Q1 2026 revenue $401.5M, up 13.8% YoY (2026-05-04)
  • Total backlog $5.3B, up 8% YoY (2026-05-04)
  • Q1 2026 GAAP net loss of $18.3M (2026-05-04)
Named risks
  • GAAP net losses persist despite revenue growth, five-year EPS decline of 7.7%. Severity: high
  • No structural moat against 60x-larger rivals like Siemens and Johnson Controls in open bidding. Severity: high
  • Ongoing SCE litigation with countersuit filed May 2026, outcome uncertain. Severity: medium
  • High stock volatility, beta 2.60, down 59.5% over five years. Severity: medium
  • Institutional and insider selling, Bandera Partners cut stake 9.6% in Q1 2026. Severity: low
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Siemenslosing toSiemens FY2025 revenue €78.9B vs Ameresco ~$2B, ~60x scale, per 2025-09-29 comparison
Johnson ControlscontestingBoth named top-4 global ESCOs by Guidehouse Insights, 2023-10-24
Schneider ElectriccontestingPeer ESCO with AI-based EcoStruxure analytics platform, per 2023-10-24 ranking
Honeywell, Trane, AECOM and otherscontestingAll bidding same $3B federal energy/water contract as of 2025-06-09
Questions people ask
Is Ameresco profitable in 2026?
No. Ameresco posted a GAAP net loss of $18.3M and EPS of -$0.35 in Q1 2026, even as revenue rose 13.8% YoY to $401.5M (2026-05-04). FY2026 guidance calls for EPS of $1.06 to $1.28, but the stock is down 59.5% over five years on profit-conversion doubts.
Who is Ameresco's biggest competitor?
Guidehouse Insights named Schneider Electric, Johnson Controls, Ameresco, and Siemens the leading global ESCOs on 2023-10-24. Siemens alone posted FY2025 revenue of €78.9B with ~275,000 employees, roughly 60 times Ameresco's ~$2B scale, giving incumbents far more capital firepower.
Is Ameresco a safe company to join?
Mixed signal. Headcount grew about 6.1% to 1,601 employees by 2025-12-31 and backlog hit $5.3B in Q1 2026, but the company posted a GAAP net loss and its stock fell 59.5% over five years, with directors and Bandera Partners trimming stakes in 2026.
Could AI replace Ameresco?
Unlikely for its core business. Ameresco builds and owns physical assets like solar, RNG plants, and microgrids, work AI cannot perform. Instead, AI-driven data center demand is a tailwind: its Navy/CyrusOne 100MW microgrid at NAS Lemoore, announced 2025-09-29, targets 2027 operation.
What is the lawsuit between Ameresco and Southern California Edison about?
Ameresco filed suit against Southern California Edison, and SCE countersued in May 2026; the case remained active in the U.S. District Court, Central District of California as of 2026-06-11. The outcome could materially affect Ameresco's California project economics and reported earnings.
How big is Ameresco's backlog?
Ameresco reported total backlog of $5.3 billion as of Q1 2026, up 8% year-over-year, with awarded backlog up 20% YoY (2026-05-04). The company frames this as evidence of durable demand even as GAAP profitability lags backlog growth.
Timeline
  • 2026-07-24Market cap ~$1.25B; Bandera Partners cuts AMRC stake 9.6%
  • 2026-07-08Analyst flags AMRC down 59.5% over five years amid inverter ban news
  • 2026-06-11Ameresco v. Southern California Edison litigation active in federal court
  • 2026-06-09AMRC shares fall 3.4% amid Iran/Strait of Hormuz market tension
  • 2026-05-12Neogenyx Fuels JV with HASI closes, $400M deal, $1.8B valuation
  • 2026-05-04Q1 2026 results: revenue $401.5M, GAAP net loss $18.3M, backlog $5.3B
  • 2025-12-31Employee count reaches 1,601, up ~6.1% from 2024
  • 2025-09-29Navy/CyrusOne 100MW AI data center microgrid deal announced at NAS Lemoore
  • 2023-10-24Guidehouse Insights names Ameresco among top 4 global ESCOs
  • 2010-07-22Ameresco IPOs on NYSE under ticker AMRC
Revision history
25 July 2026
First assessed. Protection under test. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
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