Is Ant Group (Alipay) profitable in 2026?

Ant remains profitable overall but profit has fallen sharply: Alibaba's equity-method disclosures show roughly 91% YoY profit decline for the quarter ended Sept 30 2025 and 79% decline for the quarter ended Dec 31 2025, driven by AI and healthcare spending, not an operating loss.

Who owns Ant Group and Alipay?

Alibaba Group owns about 33% of Ant Group as of 2026. Jack Ma's voting rights were cut from roughly 53.46% to 6.2% in a January 2023 restructuring, leaving no single controlling shareholder.

Is Ant Group going public again after its 2020 IPO was halted?

Ant International, Ant's global arm, raised about $1.2 billion in Series A funding on July 20 2026 at a targeted $10B+ valuation, seen as preparation for a possible Hong Kong IPO, though no formal filing has been confirmed as of the raise.

Who is Ant Group's biggest competitor?

Tencent's WeChat Pay is Ant's closest domestic rival, holding about 42% of China's mobile-payments market versus Alipay's roughly 54% as of 2024, forming a stable regulated duopoly with no visible domestic share loss.

Could AI replace Alipay's payment business?

Ant is trying to pre-empt disintermediation by launching its own AI Wallet and Token Pay infrastructure on May 26 2026 for agentic commerce, claiming support for AI agents, rather than risk being bypassed by third-party AI payment rails.

Is Ant Group's valuation recovering after its IPO collapse?

Ant's 2020 IPO targeted a $280-313 billion valuation before being halted in November 2020. A 2023 buyback implied only about $78.5-79 billion, but secondary-market pricing in 2025 suggested a recovery to roughly $103 billion.

Consumer platforms · subsidiary of Alibaba Group Holding (33% ownership; no single controlling shareholder post-January 2023 restructuring) · China

Ant Group (Alipay)

alipay.com ↗

Ant Group runs Alipay, China's largest mobile payments and super-app platform.

Defensible for now

Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026

Real protection, with named pressure against it.

On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from H2 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Ant International Hong Kong IPO filing decision

The call

Alipay still owns the payment screen in China, but its parent's equity story now depends on Beijing's regulatory mood and whether Ant International ever lists.

Ant Group runs Alipay, the biggest mobile payment app in China, handling more than half of all mobile payments there. The Chinese government legally protects Alipay from foreign rivals and makes it hard for AI to replace the service, but WeChat Pay is catching up with 42% market share versus Alipay's 54%. The real problem is that Alipay's profits have dropped 60 to 91% in three quarters because the company is spending heavily on AI and healthcare businesses instead of focusing on payments, and the government has shown it will punish Ant Group when it wants to, like when it blocked a massive IPO in 2020 and fined the company in 2023. Whether Ant Group can turn its profits around in the next few quarters and whether it can successfully list on the Hong Kong stock exchange will determine if this company stays stable or faces bigger problems.

Why

AI pressure: AI shopping agents (OpenAI, Google) doing agentic checkout. If AI agents start buying directly for users, Alipay's app screen stops being the place where payment decisions happen. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.

Bigger players: Tencent (WeChat Pay). WeChat Pay already runs inside China's most-used chat app, splitting the payments market almost evenly with Alipay. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.

What protects it. Chinese licensing rules keep foreign payment apps and AI platforms out, and Alipay sits inside daily merchant and banking workflows across the country.

What would change this call

Ant International files for a Hong Kong IPO within 6 months. Would signal renewed equity market confidence after the 2020 IPO block.
Alibaba's Q2/Q3 2026 earnings show Ant profit growth instead of decline. Would show AI/healthcare spending is paying off, not structurally eroding margins.
PBOC issues a new fine or data/AML directive against Ant within 12 months. Would show regulatory risk is recurring, not a one-time 2023 event.

Key numbers

Alipay holds 54% of China mobile payments vs WeChat Pay 42% (2024)
PBOC fined Ant CNY 7.12B (~$985M) for governance lapses (2023-07)
Ant International raised $1.2B Series A at $10B+ valuation (2026-07-20)

Named risks

Chinese regulatory action (PBOC fines, IPO blocks) can reshape Ant's operations abruptly. Severity: high
Three consecutive quarters of 60-91% profit decline from AI and healthcare spending. Severity: high
Agentic AI commerce could disintermediate Alipay's transaction-initiation layer internationally. Severity: medium
Governance turnover at WorldFirst signals integration friction ahead of possible Hong Kong IPO. Severity: medium
No single controlling shareholder since 2023 restructuring may complicate strategic decision-making. Severity: low

Rivals, as read in July 2026

Rival	Direction	Evidence
Tencent (WeChat Pay)	contesting	Stable duopoly, Alipay ~54% vs WeChat Pay ~42% of China mobile payments, 2024
Stripe	contesting	Racing to define AI-agent payment rails against Ant's AI Wallet/Token Pay, launched 2026-05
PayPal	contesting	Listed as global mobile-payments leader at ~11.3% share vs Ant in 2025 market report
Adyen	gaining on	Competes directly with Ant International's Antom cross-border merchant infrastructure
JD Technology / Meituan	contesting	Domestic BNPL competitors (JD Baitiao, Monthly Pay) to Ant's Huabei credit product
ByteDance	gaining on	Reported to be pulling ad share from Tencent, pressuring China's broader super-app ecosystem

Questions people ask

Is Ant Group (Alipay) profitable in 2026?: Ant remains profitable overall but profit has fallen sharply: Alibaba's equity-method disclosures show roughly 91% YoY profit decline for the quarter ended Sept 30 2025 and 79% decline for the quarter ended Dec 31 2025, driven by AI and healthcare spending, not an operating loss.
Who owns Ant Group and Alipay?: Alibaba Group owns about 33% of Ant Group as of 2026. Jack Ma's voting rights were cut from roughly 53.46% to 6.2% in a January 2023 restructuring, leaving no single controlling shareholder.
Is Ant Group going public again after its 2020 IPO was halted?: Ant International, Ant's global arm, raised about $1.2 billion in Series A funding on July 20 2026 at a targeted $10B+ valuation, seen as preparation for a possible Hong Kong IPO, though no formal filing has been confirmed as of the raise.
Who is Ant Group's biggest competitor?: Tencent's WeChat Pay is Ant's closest domestic rival, holding about 42% of China's mobile-payments market versus Alipay's roughly 54% as of 2024, forming a stable regulated duopoly with no visible domestic share loss.
Could AI replace Alipay's payment business?: Ant is trying to pre-empt disintermediation by launching its own AI Wallet and Token Pay infrastructure on May 26 2026 for agentic commerce, claiming support for AI agents, rather than risk being bypassed by third-party AI payment rails.
Is Ant Group's valuation recovering after its IPO collapse?: Ant's 2020 IPO targeted a $280-313 billion valuation before being halted in November 2020. A 2023 buyback implied only about $78.5-79 billion, but secondary-market pricing in 2025 suggested a recovery to roughly $103 billion.

Timeline

2026-07-20Ant International raises about $1.2B Series A at $10B+ targeted valuation
2026-05-26Alipay launches AI Wallet and Token Pay for agentic commerce
2026-04Ant closes $362.2M deal for 50.55% stake in Bright Smart Securities
2026-03China regulators approve Bright Smart Securities stake acquisition
2025-12Ant's implied quarterly profit falls about 79% YoY per Alibaba disclosures
2025-09Ant's implied quarterly profit falls about 91% YoY per Alibaba disclosures
2025-01Ant International completes ~$200M acquisition of MultiSafePay
2023-07PBOC fines Ant Group CNY 7.12B (~$985M) for governance and AML violations
2023-01Jack Ma's voting rights reduced from ~53.46% to 6.2% in restructuring
2020-11China regulators halt Ant's $34.5B dual Shanghai/Hong Kong IPO

Head to head

Ant Group (Alipay) vs Lakala

Revision history

23 July 2026

First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.

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