BT Group
UK's largest telecom operator, running Openreach's national fibre network and EE mobile.
On the record
Checkpoint: CMA decision on Virgin Media O2's 2bn pound Netomnia altnet acquisition
The call
BT keeps most of its revenue and cash flow intact while altnets and fixed-wireless slowly chip away at its broadband line count.
BT Group runs most of Britain's telephone lines and internet cables through its Openreach division, which is heavily regulated and protected by government rules. However, it is getting harder to keep customers because Virgin Media O2 (which owns almost 3 out of 5 homes through its cable network), CityFibre (a newer company building fiber in cities), and Vodafone-Three (using wireless internet instead of cables) are all taking business away. Openreach lost hundreds of thousands of internet customers last year and is expected to lose more this year. The big question is whether a major deal to combine Virgin Media O2 with another fiber company gets approved by regulators; if it does, BT will lose even more customers even faster, and wireless internet might become so good that people stop wanting fiber cables entirely.
Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI mostly drives more data and cloud traffic across BT's pipes, adding demand rather than eating the business. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: Virgin Media O2, CityFibre and VodafoneThree fixed-wireless. Openreach lost 825,000 broadband lines in FY26 and BT's market share fell 2.1 points as altnets and FWA grew. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. Openreach's regulated, near-nationwide fibre network and critical-infrastructure status keep BT central to UK broadband and mobile wholesale.
What would change this call
CMA's decision on Virgin Media O2's Netomnia acquisition, expected around July 2026. A clean clearance would let altnet consolidation accelerate, doubling pressure on Openreach's share.
Openreach's FY27 broadband line losses versus the ~800k forecast. Losses beating or missing forecast shows whether altnet/FWA switching is accelerating or stabilizing.
Three's fixed-wireless-access subscriber and share growth reported through 2026-2027. Continued FWA share gains would show 5G wireless substituting for fibre broadband is a durable threat.
Openreach's FY27 broadband line losses versus the ~800k forecast. Losses beating or missing forecast shows whether altnet/FWA switching is accelerating or stabilizing.
Three's fixed-wireless-access subscriber and share growth reported through 2026-2027. Continued FWA share gains would show 5G wireless substituting for fibre broadband is a durable threat.
Key numbers
- Openreach lost 825,000 broadband lines in FY26
- BT share down 2.1 pts, altnets up 4.4 pts to 11.4%
- Headcount cut to 108,000, targeting 75k-90k by 2030
Named risks
- Openreach losing ~800k broadband lines annually to altnets and FWA rivals.
- CMA in-depth review could clear VMO2's £2bn Netomnia bid, accelerating altnet consolidation.
- Ofcom compliance investigation into BT/EE/Plusnet opened 2026-04-28.
- Wholesale pricing dispute with VMO2 over Openreach ISP discounts could draw regulatory action.
- Verizon JV execution and regulatory clearance risk before 2027 close.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Virgin Media O2 | gaining on | Covers ~58% of UK premises; accused Openreach of anti-competitive pricing, 2026-07-11 |
| CityFibre | contesting | ~4M premises altnet, formally objected to VMO2-Netomnia deal, as of 2026-05-18 |
| VodafoneThree | gaining on | FWA outgaining fibre altnets on market share, 2026-07-16 |
| Altnets collectively | gaining on | Gained 4.4 share points to 11.4% Dec 2024 to mid-2026 vs BT's -2.1pts |
Questions people ask
- Is BT Group profitable in 2026?
- Yes. BT reported FY2026 (year to 31 March 2026) net profit of £1,077m, on adjusted revenue of £19.65bn (down 4% y/y) and adjusted EBITDA flat at £8.23bn, per results reported 2026-05-21 and 2026-07-24.
- Is BT Group losing broadband customers?
- Yes. Openreach lost 825,000 broadband lines in FY26 (year to March 2026) to altnets and rivals, and BT forecasts another ~800,000 loss in FY27. Altnets collectively gained 4.4 share points to 11.4% by mid-2026, per telecoms.com 2026-07-16.
- Who owns BT Group?
- BT is publicly listed on the LSE (BT.A). Bharti Enterprises/Bharti Airtel holds ~24.5-25.4% (completed Aug 2024), Deutsche Telekom ~12% since 2016, Carlos Slim's Grupo Carso ~3.2% (June 2024), plus institutional holders BlackRock (~3.55%) and Vanguard (~3.04%) as of Nov 2025.
- Could AI replace jobs at BT Group?
- AI is replacing manual network-ops and back-office tasks, not BT's core infrastructure moat. BT used an AI Recommendation Engine to retire its 18,000-site 3G network (completed Feb 2024) and targets £25m ServiceNow AI savings by 2027, while cutting headcount toward 75,000-90,000 by 2030.
- Who is BT Group's biggest competitor?
- Virgin Media O2, which covers ~58% of UK premises via cable/fibre and in July 2026 publicly accused Openreach of 'choking off' fibre competition through ISP discounts; CityFibre (~4 million premises) and VodafoneThree's fixed-wireless are also gaining broadband share from BT.
- What is happening with BT and Verizon?
- On 2026-06-29 BT agreed a 50:50 joint venture merging BT International with Verizon's international enterprise wireline business (~$4bn combined revenue); Verizon pays BT a $625m equalisation payment, with the deal expected to close in 2027.
Timeline
- 2026-07-23Q1 FY27 trading statement: record fibre take-up, fibre over half of broadband revenue
- 2026-07-16Altnets gain 4.4 share points to 11.4%; Three FWA outgains altnets on share
- 2026-07-15BT market cap overtakes Vodafone's for first time in 25 years
- 2026-07-11Virgin Media O2 accuses Openreach of 'choking off' fibre competition
- 2026-06-29BT and Verizon agree 50:50 international enterprise wireline joint venture
- 2026-05-21FY26 results: revenue £19.65bn, 825k Openreach lines lost, headcount 108,000
- 2026-04-28Ofcom opens compliance investigation into BT/EE/Plusnet
- 2026-01-29Ofcom letter on PSTN switch-off deadline of 31 January 2027
- 2025-12-05BT launches UK Sovereign AI platform, joins Sovereign AI Industry Forum
- 2024-08Bharti Airtel completes ~24.5-25.4% stake acquisition in BT
Revision history
25 July 2026
First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- BT ramps up cost cutting as annual earnings flatline (2026-05-21)
- Company Announcement (2026-07-23)
- BT loses more than 800,000 broadband customers (2026-05-21)
- Three FWA beats UK fibre altnets on market share (2026-07-16)
- history, ownership, mission, how it works & makes money (2026-04-20)
- BT Group
- Exploring BT Group (BT-AL) (2026-04-20)
- BT vs. Vodafone (2026-07-15)
- BT and Verizon spin off international networking arms (2026-06-29)
- BT, Verizon to Form $4 Billion International JV (2026-06-29)
- PSTN switch off and migration to VoIP (2026-01-29)
- Investigation into BT's compliance (2026-04-28)