WillItSurvive

MakeMyTrip

India's largest online travel platform for flights, hotels, buses, and trains.

Defensible for now
Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026
Real protection, with named pressure against it.
On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from late July or early August 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q1 FY2027 earnings report
The call

MakeMyTrip still owns the booking backend in India, but its future hinges on whether AI assistants keep sending users to it or start booking around it.

MakeMyTrip lets Indians book flights, hotels, and buses online and controls about 30 to 60 percent of the market by owning direct relationships with thousands of local bus companies and hotels that bigger global rivals like Booking.com cannot easily copy. The real threat is not that customers will stop using MakeMyTrip to pay and confirm, but that free AI assistants like ChatGPT or Google's Gemini will answer "where should I go" questions first, sending customers away before they think to book through MakeMyTrip, which could slowly erode profits. The game changes if an AI tool can actually process Indian payments and handle refunds without sending users back to MakeMyTrip's app, which would be much harder to reverse.

Why
01
AI pressure: OpenAI, Google Gemini, and other general-purpose AI assistants. General AI assistants could plan and eventually book trips directly, pulling users out of MakeMyTrip's app before it can capture the sale. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: Booking Holdings, Expedia, Agoda. These global OTAs have operated in India for 20 years without denting MakeMyTrip's share, lacking its local supply deals and payment rails. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. Direct contracts with 44,000+ daily bus routes, hotels, and rail inventory plus UPI and cash-on-delivery payment support that foreign or AI-only rivals can't easily copy.
What would change this call
OpenAI Operator, Google Gemini, or similar ships end-to-end trip booking (payment, confirmation) for Indian users. Would show AI agents moving from planning into MakeMyTrip's booking business, threatening take-rate.
MakeMyTrip's reported take-rate or gross margin in quarterly filings through FY2027 compresses versus FY2026 levels. Would show discovery-funnel leakage to AI assistants is starting to hit revenue, not just traffic.
Trip.com Group announces further stake sales/buyback below its current ~17-20% holding, or exits remaining board seats. Would show continued unwinding of the incumbent's ownership and governance influence.
Key numbers
  • FY26 gross bookings $10.4B, up 10.4% YoY (2026-03-31)
  • Domestic air market share 30.6-30.8% (2025-06-30)
  • Trip.com stake cut from 45.3% to ~17-20% (2025-07-22)
Named risks
  • Discovery-funnel leakage to general-purpose AI assistants compressing OTA take-rate over 3-5 years. Severity: medium
  • Recurring $319M notional interest expense from 2030 convertible notes through July 2028 causing reported net-income volatility. Severity: medium
  • Exogenous shocks (Pahalgam terror attack, Air India crash) dampening domestic travel demand. Severity: medium
  • Further Trip.com Group stake changes could reshape ownership and board composition. Severity: low
  • AI-vendor partnerships (OpenAI) becoming industry baseline, eroding differentiation versus rivals like ixigo. Severity: low
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
ixigocontestingAlso expanded OpenAI partnership same day as MakeMyTrip, Feb 18 2026
Trip.com Groupgaining onMakeMyTrip cut Trip.com's stake from 45.34% to ~17-20% via $3.1B buyback, July 2025
EaseMyTripcontestingDomestic zero-commission rival, positioned as closest OTA competitor per 2022 report
Booking Holdings, Expedia, Agodalosing to20-year presence in India but minimal share gains against MakeMyTrip as of 2025-2026
General-purpose AI assistants (OpenAI, Gemini)contestingRisk of discovery-funnel leakage; MMT integrated OpenAI APIs into Myra Feb 2026 to counter
Questions people ask
Is MakeMyTrip profitable in 2026?
Yes on an adjusted basis. FY2026 (ended March 31, 2026) operating profit was $156.0M, up 30.1% YoY, on gross bookings of $10.4B. However Q2 FY26 showed a reported net loss of $5.7M due to $28.3M in notional interest from 2030 convertible notes, an accounting effect, not a core operating decline.
Who owns MakeMyTrip now that Trip.com sold shares?
As of July 2025, Trip.com Group's stake fell from 45.34% to roughly 16.9-20% after MakeMyTrip raised $3.1 billion to buy back 34M+ shares, cutting Trip.com's board seats from five to two. Baillie Gifford (~15.4%) and GIC (~9.5%) are now large institutional holders.
Could AI assistants like ChatGPT replace MakeMyTrip?
Not for booking yet. As of February 2026 MakeMyTrip integrated OpenAI APIs into its Myra assistant, but MMT still owns the booking backend, direct hotel contracts (2,000+ international hotels) and payment settlement that general AI assistants lack, per company statements from its Q1 FY26 earnings call.
Is MakeMyTrip's biggest competitor Booking.com or a domestic rival?
Domestic rival ixigo and EaseMyTrip pose the closer competitive pressure; global OTAs like Booking Holdings, Expedia and Agoda have had 20-year presence in India with minimal share gains. MMT held roughly 30.6-30.8% domestic air market share in Q1 FY26 (June 2025).
Did MakeMyTrip lose money in Q2 FY26?
MakeMyTrip reported a net loss of $5.7M in the quarter ended September 30, 2025, versus a $17.9M profit a year earlier, driven by $28.3M in notional interest from 2030 convertible notes and $14.3M in FX losses; adjusted operating profit still rose 18% YoY.
What is MakeMyTrip's AI strategy with OpenAI?
On February 18, 2026, MakeMyTrip announced a collaboration integrating OpenAI's APIs into its Myra assistant for conversational AI-led travel discovery and booking. The same day, rival ixigo also expanded its own OpenAI partnership, per Moneycontrol reporting.
Timeline
  • 2026-05-18FY26 results: record $10.4B gross bookings, operating profit $156.0M, +30.1% YoY
  • 2026-02-18MakeMyTrip announces OpenAI API integration into Myra assistant
  • 2025-10-28Q2 FY26: reported net loss $5.7M due to convertible note interest and FX loss
  • 2025-08-07Launches upgraded multilingual multi-agent GenAI assistant Myra
  • 2025-07-22Raises $3.1B to buy back 34M+ shares from Trip.com Group
  • 2025-06-30Q1 FY26: revenue $268.8M, domestic air share 30.6-30.8%
  • 2025-05-14FY2025 results: revenue $978.3M (+27.4%), bookings $9.8B (+25.9%)
  • 2024-01-01Agreement to acquire expense-management platform Happay from CRED
  • 2019-12-31Trip.com stake rises to ~49% via stock-swap after 2016 Ibibo merger
  • 2010-09-17IPO on Nasdaq raises ~$80.5M at ~$478M valuation
Head to head
Revision history
23 July 2026
First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources