Maximus
US firm running government call centers and eligibility work for Medicare, Medicaid, and states.
On the record
Checkpoint: Q3 FY2026 earnings call, watch bookings and book-to-bill trend
The call
Maximus holds its federal contracts through clearances and long deals, but new bookings are shrinking faster than AI is cutting its costs.
Maximus runs welfare, health, and employment services for U.S. government agencies, work that requires security clearances, federal certifications, and long contracts to win. It is genuinely hard to replace because the government locks in vendors through multi-year deals (its biggest contract runs through 2031) and regulatory red tape that keeps out newcomers. The catch: revenue is flat or falling, new business wins are slowing, and as AI software like Salesforce and Amazon tools get better, the government may eventually pay Maximus less to do the same work, squeezing profits. Watch whether Maximus wins enough new contracts in the next few quarters to stop the revenue decline. If it does not, the company stays safe but boring; if it does, the story flips.
Why
01
AI pressure: Salesforce Agentforce and AWS Bedrock/Lex/Textract. Maximus already uses these tools to run its own contact centers, but agencies could later cut headcount pay once AI proves it works. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: Accenture Federal Services, Deloitte, GDIT, Leidos. These rivals chase the same federal contracts; a 0.5x book-to-bill ratio suggests new work is going elsewhere right now. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. Security clearances, FedRAMP approval, and long contracts like the $6.6B CMS deal running through 2031 keep new entrants out.
What would change this call
Book-to-bill ratio reported at Aug 6, 2026 Q3 earnings stays below 0.8x. Would show new contract wins are structurally lagging revenue, not just procurement timing.
CMS or other flagship federal contract recompete outcome announced. A loss to Accenture Federal, Deloitte, GDIT, or Leidos would show the regulatory moat is breachable.
Government agency reprices a Maximus fixed-price contract citing AI productivity at renewal. Would show margin gains from TXM/AI are being clawed back by the customer, not kept by Maximus.
CMS or other flagship federal contract recompete outcome announced. A loss to Accenture Federal, Deloitte, GDIT, or Leidos would show the regulatory moat is breachable.
Government agency reprices a Maximus fixed-price contract citing AI productivity at renewal. Would show margin gains from TXM/AI are being clawed back by the customer, not kept by Maximus.
Key numbers
- $6.6B CMS contact center contract extended to 2031
- Book-to-bill ratio just 0.5x trailing twelve months
- Q2 FY26 revenue fell 4.1% YoY to $1.306B
Named risks
- Book-to-bill stuck at 0.5x TTM signals new awards lagging revenue run-off.
- Government may reprice fixed-price contracts to capture AI productivity gains at recompete.
- Federal budget volatility and potential shutdowns given heavy federal revenue mix.
- Ongoing litigation including Aidvantage TCPA settlement and Montana Recovery Program class action.
- Headcount decline from 41,100 to 37,200 amid AI substitution could signal labor-model disruption.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Accenture Federal Services | contesting | Joint bidder with Maximus on $2.6B IRS contract vehicle, also competes in higher-margin digital transformation as of 2026 |
| Deloitte | contesting | Consulting-led government transformation rival encroaching on digital modernization work, per 2026 competitive landscape reports |
| GDIT | contesting | Federal mission IT integrator competing for next-gen government contact center and IT work as of 2026 |
| Leidos | contesting | Federal IT integrator rival named alongside GDIT in Maximus competitive landscape analysis, 2026-03-19 |
| Conduent | contesting | Direct BPO and government transaction processing rival, noted as closest peer as of 2026-05-04 |
| Gainwell Technologies | contesting | Competes directly on state Medicaid MMIS and eligibility systems as of 2026 |
Questions people ask
- Is Maximus profitable in 2026?
- Yes. Maximus guided FY2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $8.25 to $8.55 with adjusted EBITDA margin around 14.2%, up from FY2025's 12.9% margin and $7.36 EPS, per its May 6, 2026 earnings release, even as revenue is flat to down.
- Is Maximus losing revenue?
- Partially. Q2 FY2026 revenue was $1.306B, down 4.1% year over year and below the $1.37B analyst estimate, reported May 7, 2026. FY2026 guidance of $5.2B to $5.35B is below FY2025's $5.43B actual revenue.
- Could AI replace Maximus's contact center jobs?
- AI is already substituting labor: headcount fell from 41,100 in FY2024 to 37,200 in FY2025 per Macrotrends, while Maximus integrated Salesforce Agentforce and AWS Bedrock into its TXM platform starting March 2025, and margins rose as staff numbers dropped.
- Who are Maximus's biggest competitors?
- Maximus competes with Conduent and Gainwell Technologies on government BPO and Medicaid systems, and faces margin pressure from Accenture Federal Services, Deloitte, GDIT, and Leidos in higher-value federal digital transformation work, per company competitive analyses through mid-2026.
- Who owns Maximus?
- Maximus, Inc. (NYSE: MMS) is an independent publicly traded company with no parent, part of the S&P 400, with a market cap around $3.04 billion and shares near $56.51 as of July 21, 2026, well off its 52-week high of $100.
- Is Maximus's revenue pipeline shrinking?
- Maximus reported a $59.1 billion sales pipeline as of December 31, 2025, but only $913M in signed year-to-date contracts and a weak 0.5x book-to-bill ratio, signaling new awards are lagging revenue run-off according to its Q1 FY2026 investor update.
Timeline
- 2026-07-21Market cap approx $3.04B, shares $56.51, off 52-week high of $100
- 2026-05-11New $400M share repurchase authorization takes effect
- 2026-05-06Q2 FY2026 results: revenue $1.306B down 4.1% YoY, EPS $2.07 beats estimates
- 2026-01-26Launches Accuracy Assistant, AI SNAP error-prevention tool for states
- 2025-12-18Secures $33M CMS Part A West QIC task order
- 2025-11-19FY2025 results: revenue $5.43B up 2.4% YoY, EPS $7.36 up 20%
- 2025-03-24Integrates Salesforce Agentforce AI agents into TXM platform
- 2024-12-10Completes divestiture of Australia and South Korea employment services
- 2024-11-26Retains CMS Contact Center Operations contract, ~$6.6B, through 2031
- 2024-02-19Launches Maximus TXM cloud customer experience platform
Revision history
21 July 2026
First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Federal services drive growth amid strategic tech pivot (2025-11-20)
- Maximus Reports Fiscal Year 2026 Second Quarter Results (2026-05-06)
- margin gains offset revenue decline (2026-05-07)
- Margins expand as revenue dips, AI focus grows (2026-02-05)
- Maximus Will Continue to Perform Contact Center Operations Contract (2024-11-26)
- Maximus secures $33M CMS Part A West QIC task (2025-12-18)
- gurufocus.com (2026-07-21)
- Maximus Completes Divestiture of Australia and South Korea (2024-12-10)
- Maximus Reports Fiscal Year 2026 First Quarter Results (2026-02-04)
- Maximus, Inc. (MMS) (2026-07-09)
- Maximus Number of Employees 2012-2026
- MAXIMUS Number of Employees 2026 (2026-06-29)