WillItSurvive
Logistics and supply chain companies · Singapore

Ninja Van

ninjavan.co ↗

Southeast Asian last-mile delivery network moving parcels for e-commerce platforms and merchants.

Losing its protection
Assessed 23 July 2026 · Evidence as of 23 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 23 July 2026 · Checkable from 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Close of rumored $80M funding round at roughly $1B valuation
The call

Ninja Van moves millions of parcels a day but loses money doing it, while the platforms it depends on build their own delivery fleets underneath it.

Ninja Van delivers packages across six Southeast Asian countries and made over $700 million in revenue, but lost $102 million in the last year and is shrinking. The main problem is that parcel delivery has become a commodity business where competitors like J&T and Flash charge rock-bottom prices, and worse, Ninja Van's two biggest customers, Shopee and Lazada, are now delivering their own packages instead of using Ninja Van. The company is betting that two newer businesses, B2B restocking and cold chain delivery for fresh goods, will grow fast enough to make up for lost parcel volume, but these are still too small to matter right now.

Why
01
AI pressure: None apparent. AI helps with route optimization and demand forecasting internally, but no AI product is displacing physical parcel delivery here. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: Shopee Xpress and Lazada LEX. Ninja Van's biggest customers own their own delivery arms and are pulling volume in-house, squeezing the core parcel business that funds everything else. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. A physical six-market delivery network that's expensive to replicate, plus early traction in B2B restocking and cold-chain delivery that platforms don't offer.
What would change this call
Whether the rumored $80M round from B Capital and Monk's Hill closes at ~$1B valuation. Shows if investors still believe in a turnaround or are pulling back.
Any further market exit beyond Vietnam's parcel service, especially Philippines or Thailand. Would indicate the regional network is contracting, not stabilizing.
Whether Ninja Cold and Ninja B2B revenue grows faster than core parcel volume shrinks. Determines if diversification can offset platform in-sourcing losses.
Key numbers
  • FY2025 revenue ~$702M, down from $741M (2026-06-27)
  • FY2025 net loss ~$102M, narrowed 32% (2026-06-27)
  • Valuation halved to ~$1B from ~$2B peak (2025-08-11)
Named risks
  • Vertical integration by Shopee and Lazada erodes third-party parcel volume from largest customers. Severity: high
  • Persistent net losses ($102M in FY2025) with revenue declining year over year. Severity: high
  • Full Vietnam express market exit signals possible further market contractions in Philippines or Thailand. Severity: medium
  • Repeated Singapore layoffs (three rounds by August 2025) indicate ongoing cost-cutting instability. Severity: medium
  • SEA funding winter leaves 19 Singapore unicorns without fresh capital for 24+ months, per June 2026 data. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Shopee Xpress and Lazada LEXlosing toLargest customers building in-house delivery arms, in-sourcing parcel volume as of 2025 sourcing
J&T ExpresscontestingRival operates about 350,000 employees globally with aggressive low-cost 365-day model, dated 2024-07-14
Flash ExpresscontestingClaims 2.5M+ parcels/day and 15 to 18% Thailand share versus Ninja Van's roughly 2M/day, per vendor source dated 2026-03-20
Lalamove and GrabExpresscontestingCompete in on-demand same-day niche versus Ninja Van's hub-and-spoke model, per Wikipedia dated 2026-02-14
Questions people ask
Is Ninja Van profitable in 2026?
No. Ninja Van posted a net loss of about $102M on FY2025 revenue of roughly $702M, per a June 2026 ZoomInfo estimate. Losses narrowed 32% year over year, but the company remains unprofitable and has shelved IPO plans until profitability improves, per a March 2024 Bloomberg report.
Who owns Ninja Van?
Ninja Van is privately held and VC backed with no single parent company. Major investors include Alibaba Group, B Capital Group, DPDgroup (Geopost/La Poste), Monk's Hill Ventures, Z Venture Capital, and Golden Gate Ventures, per CB Insights data dated 2026-06-08.
Has Ninja Van had layoffs?
Yes, three rounds in 16 months: a 10% tech team cut in April 2024, a 5% Singapore workforce cut in July 2024, and a 12% Singapore staff cut in August 2025, per Channel News Asia reporting dated 2025-08-12.
Is Ninja Van's valuation falling?
Yes. Ninja Van's valuation was reported to have roughly halved to about $1 billion in an internal funding round discussed in August 2025, down from over $2 billion at its September 2021 Series E peak, per Straits Times reporting dated 2025-08-11.
Could AI replace Ninja Van's delivery business?
Not the physical part. AI already handles routing and dispatch, with 96% of transport professionals using AI in operations per a 2025 industry survey, but Ninja Van's physical hubs, driver fleet, customs licensing, and cash-on-delivery handling across six SEA markets are not AI-replaceable.
Who is Ninja Van's biggest competitor?
J&T Express (about 350,000 employees globally, aggressive low-cost model) and Flash Express (2.5M+ parcels/day, vendor-claimed) are Ninja Van's closest scaled rivals, per sourcing dated 2024-07-14 and 2026-03-20 respectively, though Shopee Xpress and Lazada LEX pose a deeper structural threat as vertically integrating customers.
Timeline
  • 2025-09-30Ninja Van fully discontinues express parcel delivery service in Vietnam
  • 2025-08-12Cuts 12% of Singapore staff, third layoff round in 16 months
  • 2025-08-11Reported to be halving valuation to about $1B in internal funding round
  • 2025-01-06Launches Ninja Restock B2B partnership with Universal Robina Corp in Philippines
  • 2024-09-19Suspends Vietnam subsidiary ECRM Nobita over unpaid salaries
  • 2024-07-01Cuts 5% of Singapore workforce
  • 2024-04-29Cuts 10% of regional tech team amid losses and IPO delays
  • 2024-04-08Launches Ninja B2B and Ninja Cold verticals across six markets on 10th anniversary
  • 2024-03-18Confirms IPO plans shelved until profitability improves
  • 2021-09Closes Series E, raising $578M at above $1B unicorn valuation
Head to head
LBC Express vs Ninja Van
Revision history
23 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
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