WillItSurvive

Nulab makes Backlog, Cacoo, and Typetalk, project tools for dev teams, mainly in Japan.

Losing its protection
Assessed 22 July 2026 · Evidence as of 22 July 2026
The structural protection is eroding.
On the recordSince 22 July 2026 · Checkable from August 2026 · Every call on the record Checkpoint: Q1 FY2027 earnings, including AI-credit attach rate and any Backlog paying-team count update
The call

Nulab still turns a profit off a loyal base, but its growth is slowing right as free AI features from bigger rivals start doing what it charges extra for.

Nulab makes Backlog, a tool that helps teams organize work and track projects. It has been profitable and stable for over 20 years, and many teams have years of their work stored inside it, which should make it hard to leave. But Atlassian (which makes Jira), Microsoft (which makes Teams), and monday.com are all adding AI features like summarizing work and writing tasks for free, while Nulab charges extra for those same features. The question that will determine Nulab's future is whether teams care enough about keeping their old project history and settings to stay, or whether they will switch to a competitor's free AI features instead.

Why
01
AI pressure: Microsoft Copilot, monday.com AI agents, Asana AI. These give summarizing, drafting, and task extraction free with the base product, the exact features Nulab sells as paid AI credits. Could AI do the core job? Only partly.
02
Bigger players: Atlassian (Jira). Jira is the enterprise default for dev teams and now ships its own AI features, squeezing Backlog from the top of the market down. Could a giant copy it? Yes, easily.
03
What protects it. Years of project history, Git/SVN ties, and SSO/audit setup inside Nulab Pass make switching Backlog painful for existing teams.
What would change this call
Nulab Q1 FY2027 earnings (Aug 2026): revenue growth rate and AI-credit attach/revenue disclosed. Shows whether AI monetization is working or growth keeps sliding toward flat.
Backlog paying-team count disclosed again (last public figure: 10,000 in 2020). Shows whether installed-base lock-in is retaining and growing customers.
Atlassian, monday.com, or Microsoft announce new free AI summarization/task-extraction features for SMB teams. Shows incumbents commoditizing the exact layer Nulab charges for via credits.
Key numbers
  • Revenue growth slowed to 6.8% YoY (2026-03-31)
  • Net income fell 67.75% to Â¥178 million (2026-03-31)
  • Last public Backlog count: 10,000 teams (2020-05-19)
Named risks
  • Revenue growth decelerated from 15.8% to 6.8% YoY while net income fell 68% in FY2026. Severity: high
  • AI-credit add-on monetizes features that larger rivals ship free natively, risking commoditization. Severity: high
  • Backlog paying-team count last publicly disclosed in 2020, no recent independent customer data available. Severity: medium
  • Conflicting headcount figures (124 vs 180 vs 207) create uncertainty about actual company scale. Severity: low
  • Thinly traded micro-cap stock with high volatility exposes company to sharp market reactions. Severity: medium
Rivals, as read in July 2026
RivalDirectionEvidence
Atlassian (Jira)contestingEnterprise-standard incumbent shipping Atlassian Intelligence AI features throughout 2025-26
monday.comcontestingMarkets itself as an AI Work Platform with agents and automations as of May 2026 (vendor-claimed)
AsanacontestingBroader cross-functional adoption and AI agent investment noted as of April 2026
Microsoft Copilot (Teams)gaining onNative AI summarize/draft/task-extraction features threaten Nulab's paid AI-credit add-on launched March 2026
Questions people ask
Is Nulab profitable in 2026?
Yes but weakening. Nulab's FY2026 (ended March 31, 2026) net income fell 67.75% to about 178 million yen, despite revenue rising 6.83% YoY to roughly 4.39 billion yen (~$29M), partly due to a one-off loss of 111 million yen.
Could AI replace Nulab's Backlog product?
AI threatens Nulab's own AI-credit add-on features (summarization, task extraction, drafting), which cost $60-$210/month, since Microsoft Copilot, monday.com's AI Work Platform, and Atlassian's AI features ship similar capability natively as of 2026, potentially commoditizing that layer.
Who is Nulab's biggest competitor?
Atlassian's Jira is Nulab's closest and largest competitor, described as the enterprise standard in dev-focused project management as of April 2026, alongside Asana and monday.com which are investing more heavily in AI agents.
Is Nulab a safe company to join in 2026?
Nulab is a stable, 22-year-old public company (Tokyo Stock Exchange, ticker 5033, IPO June 28, 2022) with roughly 74% gross margin, but revenue growth slowed from 15.8% to 6.8% YoY and net income dropped 68% in FY2026, signaling financial pressure.
Who owns Nulab?
Nulab is a publicly traded company on the Tokyo Stock Exchange under ticker 5033 since its June 28, 2022 IPO, with no single parent company; prior investors included East Ventures (2017 seed) and XTech Ventures (2020 Series A).
How many employees does Nulab have?
Estimates conflict: Crustdata reports 124 employees as of June 2026 (down 4.6% YoY), while WSJ and Simply Wall St. cite 180 employees as of February and July 2026 respectively, with one Simply Wall St. estimate reaching 207 for August 2026.
Timeline
  • 2026-06-29Backlog AI Assistant extended to support creating and deleting documents via chat
  • 2026-03-31FY2026 ends: revenue up 6.83% YoY to ~4.39B yen, net income down 67.75% to ~178M yen
  • 2026-03-05Backlog AI Assistant launched generally available for Premium/Platinum plan users
  • 2026-02-04New Backlog AI Assistant Features Terms took effect ahead of GA launch
  • 2025-11-14AI Backlog Sweeper launched, co-developed with ABEJA, auto-extracts tasks from Google Meet
  • 2025-11-01AI Summary feature introduced, built with OpenAI
  • 2025-06-01Backlog AI Assistant beta announced
  • 2022-06-28Nulab completes IPO on Tokyo Stock Exchange under ticker 5033
  • 2020-05-19Backlog reaches 10,000 paying teams and 1.7 million active users
  • 2004-03-29Nulab founded by Masanori Hashimoto, Toshitaka Agata, and Shinsuke/Tatsusuke Tabata
Revision history
22 July 2026
First assessed. Losing its protection. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources