PT Telkom Indonesia
Indonesia's state-controlled telecom, running Telkomsel's mobile network and fiber/tower assets.
On the record
Checkpoint: Decision on Nvidia direct investment and 580MW to 1.3GW data-center capacity expansion
The call
Telkom's state backing and network assets keep it standing, but shrinking revenue, falling ARPU, and an unresolved Nvidia partnership decision leave its AI-era role undefined.
Telkom Indonesia runs phone service, internet, and data centers across Indonesia. It owns the spectrum licenses and fiber cables that other companies have to rent from it, which normally makes it hard to replace. But Nvidia is building its own giant data center in Indonesia that could bypass Telkom entirely for artificial intelligence work. The company's real problem is not competition from other phone companies like XLSMART, but whether it will actually get chosen to build Indonesia's AI data centers, or whether foreign tech giants like Nvidia will do it themselves and cut Telkom out of the deal.
Why
01
AI pressure: Nvidia and Firmus, Batam AI data-center campus. A planned 170,000-GPU Nvidia/Firmus campus in Batam could let hyperscalers build Indonesia's AI infrastructure directly, leaving Telkom as landlord, not partner. Could AI do the core job? Unlikely.
02
Bigger players: XLSMART (XL Axiata, Smartfren, Smart Telecom merger). XLSMART closed its $6.5B merger in April 2025, creating a bigger rival network chasing the same mobile subscribers as Telkomsel. Could a giant copy it? No, they are blocked.
03
What protects it. State ownership, spectrum licenses, and national fiber/tower/subsea infrastructure make Telkom hard to route around for any operator or data-center build in Indonesia.
What would change this call
XLSMART reports consecutive quarters of subscriber net-adds while Telkomsel's subscriber count keeps falling. Would show XLSMART is durably taking share from Telkomsel, not just a one-time merger bump.
Nvidia/Firmus Batam data-center (170,000 GPUs) reaches go-live around Q1 2027 without a confirmed Telkom partnership role. Would show Telkom is being bypassed as Indonesia's sovereign-AI infrastructure partner.
IDX inquiry into Telkom's receivables writeoff escalates into a formal restatement of financials. Would show governance/accounting problems are more serious than a routine review.
Nvidia/Firmus Batam data-center (170,000 GPUs) reaches go-live around Q1 2027 without a confirmed Telkom partnership role. Would show Telkom is being bypassed as Indonesia's sovereign-AI infrastructure partner.
IDX inquiry into Telkom's receivables writeoff escalates into a formal restatement of financials. Would show governance/accounting problems are more serious than a routine review.
Key numbers
- 9M2025 net profit down 10.7% YoY to IDR 15.8 trillion
- 9M2025 revenue down 2.3% YoY to IDR 109.6 trillion
- 9M2025 ARPU fell 4.7% YoY to IDR 42,400
Named risks
- IDX inquiry into receivables write-off discrepancies between audited FY2025 and Q1 2026 filings.
- Foreign hyperscalers/Nvidia building Indonesia's AI data-center infrastructure directly, capping Telkom to a landlord role.
- Continued subscriber and ARPU decline (9M2025: subscribers -0.5%, ARPU -4.7%) turning structural.
- Governance uncertainty from near-total board reshuffle and CEO hired from rival XL Axiata.
- Stock down 31.5% YTD and flagged 'Red Zone' for over four months as of July 2026.
Rivals, as read in July 2026
| Rival | Direction | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| XLSMART (XL Axiata, Smartfren, Smart Telecom) | gaining on | Merger completed April 16, 2025, ~$6.5B, creating a major mobile rival to Telkomsel |
| Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison | contesting | Building AI center of excellence with Nvidia and Cisco, announced July 2025 |
| Nvidia/Firmus (Batam data-center campus) | contesting | 170,000-GPU, 360MW campus targeted Q1 2027, risks bypassing Telkom in sovereign-AI infra |
Questions people ask
- Is Telkom Indonesia profitable in 2025?
- Yes but shrinking. 9M2025 net profit fell 10.7% YoY to IDR15.8 trillion on revenue down 2.3% YoY to IDR109.6 trillion, per MNC Sekuritas equity report dated December 2025, driven by falling subscribers and ARPU.
- Who owns Telkom Indonesia?
- The Republic of Indonesia is ultimate controlling shareholder. As of January 7, 2026, PT Danantara Asset Management held about 51.57% of voting rights and BP BUMN 0.52%, following a state shareholding restructuring disclosed in a Telkom 6-K filing.
- Who is Telkom Indonesia's biggest competitor?
- XLSMART, formed by the April 16, 2025 merger of XL Axiata, Smartfren, and Smart Telecom for about $6.5 billion, is the main mobile rival, alongside Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison which is building AI infrastructure partnerships with Nvidia and Cisco.
- Could AI replace Telkom Indonesia?
- No. Telkom's moat is regulated spectrum, national fiber, towers via Mitratel, and subsea/satellite assets that AI cannot replicate. AI instead acts as a customer, via sovereign data-center demand, and a cost tool for customer service, not a substitute for its core infrastructure business.
- Why is Telkom Indonesia's stock down in 2026?
- TLK's NYSE ADR was down roughly 31.5% year-to-date as of July 23, 2026 and flagged 'Red Zone' for over four months by MarketBeat, reflecting declining subscribers, falling ARPU, and unresolved IDX scrutiny over financial disclosures.
- Will Nvidia invest directly in Telkom Indonesia's data centers?
- As of July 12, 2026, this is unconfirmed. The Indonesian government said it was courting a direct Nvidia investment to expand national data-center capacity from 580MW to 1.3GW, with Telkom cited as a possible direct investor, per the Jakarta Post.
Timeline
- 2026-07-12Govt reportedly courting direct Nvidia investment, 580MW to 1.3GW data-center expansion, Telkom cited as investor
- 2026-06-23IDX requests Telkom explanation for receivables write-off discrepancies between FY2025 and Q1 2026
- 2026-06-08Telkom AGM approves Rp4 trillion (about 10% of capital) share buyback framework through June 2027
- 2026-01-07State shareholding restructured; Danantara Asset Management holds ~51.57% voting rights
- 2025-05-28Dian Siswarini, former XL Axiata CEO, appointed Telkom President Director/CEO
- 2025-04-16XLSMART merger of XL Axiata, Smartfren, Smart Telecom completes, valued ~$6.5B
- 2023IndiHome, with 75.2% fixed broadband market share, integrated into Telkomsel
- 2021-01Telkom becomes first in Indonesia to deploy Nvidia DGX A100 supercomputer
Revision history
25 July 2026
First assessed. Defensible for now. The text above is fixed as of this date and is not edited afterwards.
In the same band
Sources
- Who Owns Telkom Indonesia Company? (2026-01-21)
- Telkom Indonesia updates state shareholding structure in TLKM (2026-01-07)
- Telkomsel (2026-07-21)
- Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLK) Financials & Income Statement (2026-06-26)
- PowerPoint Presentation (MNCS Equity Report) (2025-12-01)
- PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Tbk (TLK) Stock Price, News & Analysis (2026-07-23)
- Singtel to integrate Indonesian telco IndiHome into associate Telkomsel (2024-11-22)
- Telkom Indonesia Number of Employees 2026 (2026-06-29)
- Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk employees (2026-06-26)
- Telkom's New CEO and the Challenges of the Current Telecommunications Industry (2025-05-28)
- XLSmart Officially Launches | XL Axiata and Smartfren Merger Creates New Telecom Giant in Indonesia (2025-04-18)
- Nvidia and Firmus to build 170,000-GPU data center in Indonesia (2026-07-03)